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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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19 minutes ago, Barnack said:

21:11 to 21:20, with now all sales for the movies consolidated improvement. I think it could be possible to develop a tracker that get all fandango sales, show us sales by movie by states (or an east coast, central, west coast split)/days/3d-2d split the movie show evolving and by building a table of actual result comparable, have an BOT automated tracker developed.

 

Pacific Rim Upr 294
Black Panther 103
Avengers Infini 75
I Can Only Imag 72
Tomb Raider 65
Love Simon 62
Midnight Sun (2 33
Paul Apostle of 33
Sherlock Gnomes 33
Game Night (201 32
Red Sparrow 28
Ready Player On 27
A Wrinkle in Ti 26
Unsane (2018) 23
Isle of Dogs 19
The Strangers P 18
Annihilation 13
Peter Rabbit 6

 

Movies with 5 or less sales:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

 

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

91LQgKWwF8L._SL1500_.jpg

 

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Pulse 

 

1. Pacific Rim: Uprising

2. Black Panther

3. I Can Only Imagine

4. Love, Simon**

5. Avengers: Infinity War

 

**I have a theory about this movie: So it seems to pop up in the evening and night time on Pulse either in #4 or #5. It also performed strong on Pulse and Movietickets during the same time frame last week. My theory (not a super radical one) is that the West Coast/Texas is caring this film heavy. I look at the map of tickets and its is almost entirely selling it in these areas. A user (forgot their name) mentioned that CA schools are on spring break starting this weekend. I hope (think) we are gonna see a strong weekday performance from Love, Simon next week. .....but this is just my theory and who knows. I could be dead wrong haha :) 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, WrathOfHan said:
> NEW RELEASES
2 - Pacific Rim Uprising Universal 3,708 - - - - - - 1
3 - Sherlock Gnomes Paramount 3,662 - - - - - - 1
8 - Unsane Bleecker Street 2,023 - - - - - - 1
9 - Midnight Sun Open Road Films 2,173 - - - - - - 1
12 - Paul, Apostle of Christ Sony / Columbia 1,473 - - - - - - 1
38 - Isle Of Dogs Fox Searchlight 27 - - - - - - 1
41 - Final Portrait Sony Classics 3 - - - - - - 1
> EXPANDING
6 12 I Can Only Imagine Roadside Attractions 2,252 +625 +38.4% - - - - 2
21 47 The Death of Stalin IFC 140 +108 +337.5% - - - - 3
27 42 The Leisure Seeker Sony Classics 110 +61 +124.5% - - - - 6
34 43 Loveless (2018) Sony Classics 46 +3 +7.0% - - - - 6
36 46 Samson Pure Flix 36 +2 +5.9% - - - - 6
39 57 Foxtrot Sony Classics 26 +14 +116.7% - - - - 4
> NO CHANGE
1 2 Tomb Raider Warner Bros. 3,854 - - - - - - 2
> DECLINING
4 1 A Wrinkle in Time Buena Vista 3,423 -557 -14.0% - - - - 3
5 3 Black Panther Buena Vista 3,370 -464 -12.1% - - - - 6
7 4 Peter Rabbit Sony / Columbia 2,071 -654 -24.0% - - - - 7
10 5 Game Night Warner Bros. (New Line) 1,866 -820 -30.5% - - - - 5
11 8 Strangers: Prey at Night Aviron 1,481 -983 -39.9% - - - - 3
13 6 Death Wish (2018) MGM 1,304 -1,372 -51.3% - - - - 4
14 13 Jumanji: Welcome to the Jungle Sony / Columbia 1,022 -534 -34.3% - - - - 14
15 16 7 Days in Entebbe Focus Features 835 -3 -0.4% - - - - 2
16 15 Fifty Shades Freed Universal 509 -364 -41.7% - - - - 7
17 14 Annihilation Paramount 478 -609 -56.0% - - - - 5
18 21 Star Wars: The Last Jedi Buena Vista 150 -61 -28.9% - - - - 15
19 27 The 15:17 to Paris Warner Bros. 146 -9 -5.8% - - - - 7
20 23 Coco Buena Vista 144 -33 -18.6% - - - - 18
22 11 The Hurricane Heist Entertainment Studios 128 -2,155 -94.4% - - - - 3
23 30 Early Man Lionsgate 126 -18 -12.5% - - - - 6
24 22 A Fantastic Woman Sony Classics 121 -69 -36.3% - - - - 8
25 10 Gringo STX Entertainment 117 -2,197 -94.9% - - - - 3
26 19 Thoroughbreds Focus Features 116 -448 -79.4% - - - - 3
28 25 I, Tonya Neon 102 -58 -36.3% - - - - 16

 

GRINGO AND HURRICANE HEIST :hahaha: 

That was to be expected. Everywhere around me cut them down to 1-2 shows a day last weekend and dropped them this weekend.

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IW Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report T-35 days and counting


 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

113

5032

11011

54.30%

 

Showings Added:      6

Total Seats Added: 351

Total Seats Sold:    116

Edited by Porthos
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59 minutes ago, Porthos said:

IW Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report T-36 days and counting


 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

1

113

5032

11011

54.30%

 

Showings Added:      6

Total Seats Added: 351

Total Seats Sold:    116

The total seats sold increase has been steady lately. Not bad.

Edited by LeoC
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27 minutes ago, EarlyDeadlinePredictions said:

8:10AM ET - MT Update....WAR READY! (Lets see how frontloaded this is)

 

18% Pacific Rim : Uprising

13.5% I Can Only Imagine

10% Black Panther

6.9% Avengers : Infinity War

6.9% Wrinkle in Time, A

Gnomes still isn't there? :hahaha: 

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So, PR Uprising looks like it's gonna hit the 20's range at this point. I think I predicted an OW in that range a couple of months ago, but the closer I got to release, the less confident I became in that prediction. Huh. Well, Panther's run wouldn't last forever, I think.

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12 hours ago, Hiccup23 said:

Pulse 

 

1. Pacific Rim: Uprising

2. Black Panther

3. I Can Only Imagine

4. Love, Simon**

5. Avengers: Infinity War

 

**I have a theory about this movie: So it seems to pop up in the evening and night time on Pulse either in #4 or #5. It also performed strong on Pulse and Movietickets during the same time frame last week. My theory (not a super radical one) is that the West Coast/Texas is caring this film heavy. I look at the map of tickets and its is almost entirely selling it in these areas. A user (forgot their name) mentioned that CA schools are on spring break starting this weekend. I hope (think) we are gonna see a strong weekday performance from Love, Simon next week. .....but this is just my theory and who knows. I could be dead wrong haha :) 

 

 

 

The deadline article for last week’s demos support that:

Quote

Love, Simon drew 58% females, 42% males with 59% under 25. The movie over-indexed in the west, Northeast, and Midwest; slightly under-indexed in the Rockies; and under-indexed in the south and southeast. Top 20 markets that over-indexed include LA, NY, SF, Boston, Philadelphia, Seattle, and Minneapolis. Top grossing theaters came from LA, NY, SF, Boston, Toronto, Chicago, St. Louis, Dallas, and San Antonio. Canada repped 5.6% of the weekend’s take.

6PM - 10PM EST is when all of those markets are gonna over lap. 

Edited by captainwondyful
Clarify time zones
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Theater update:

 

Spoiler

 

Sherlock Gnomes:

 

10:15: 66/113

11:15: 55/78

12:30 3D: 0/113

2:45: 10/113

5:00 3D: 10/113

7:00: 2/78

9:15 3D: 0/78

 

Pacific Rim:

 

11:00: 52/78

1:40 3D: 2/78

4:20: 13/78 5

7:15 3D: 8/113

10:00 3D: 5/113

 

I Can Only Imagine:

 

10:45: 30/124

12:20: 10/78

1:25: 14/124

4:05: 11/124

6:50: 14/124

9:30: 0/124

 

Paul, Apostle of Christ:

 

11:30: 19/78

2:10: 11/78

4:55: 6/78

7:30: 2/78

10:15: 0/78

 

A Wrinkle in Time:

 

10:05: 9/78

12:50: 13/78

3:35: 2/78

6:20: 7/78

9:00: 0/78

 

Peter Rabbit:

 

10:45: 23/67

1:40: 1/78

4:05: 0/78

6:30: 0/78

 

Midnight Sun:

 

10:00: 10/78

1:15: 10/67

3:00: 0/78

5:20: 0/78

7:45: 3/78

10:10: 0/78

 

Black Panther:

 

11:00: 29/69

2:15 3D: 0/69

5:30: 0/69

8:45 3D: 2/69

9:55: 0/67

 

Tomb Raider:

 

10:00: 11/78

12:45 3D: 2/78

3:30: 0/78

6:15 3D: 4/78

9:05: 0/78

 

Love, Simon:

 

10:40: 3/60

1:30: 0/60

4:15: 0/60

7:00: 2/60

9:50: 0/60

 

Red Sparrow: 

 

6:40: 2/67

 

Unsane:

 

11:45: 0/63

2:15: 1/63

4:50: 0/63

7:20: 0/63

9:50: 0/63


 

 

Sherlock Gnomes: 143/686 (133 2D/10 3D) (Up 58)

Pacific Rim: 80/460 (65 2D/15 3D) (Up 22)

I Can Only Imagine: 79/698 (Up 21) (-80% from last week)

Paul, Apostle of Christ: 38/390 (Up 6)

A Wrinkle in Time: 31/390 (Up 7) (+3% from last week)

Black Panther: 31/343 (29 2D/2 3D) (Up 22) (+3% from last week)

Peter Rabbit: 24/301 (Up 6) (-35% from last week)

Midnight Sun: 23/457 (Up 12)

Tomb Raider: 17/390 (11 2D/6 3D) (Up 15) (-55% from last week)

Love, Simon: 5/300 (Up 3) (-85% from last week)

Red Sparrow: 2/67 (Up 2) (-66% from last week)

Unsane: 1/315 (up 1 aka ME)

Death Wish and Jumanji have sold nothing.

 

It's insane that I'm the only person who's bought a ticket for Unsane :hahaha: Hopefully I have that show to myself.

 

Pacific Rim comps:

 

12% of Black Panther (24.2M)

20% of Thor: Ragnarok (24.5M)

25% of Justice League (23.5M)

60% of Dunkirk (30.3M)

60% of Jumanji (21.7M)

75% of Kingsman (29.3M)

205% of The Commuter (28.1M)

 

There's still scenarios where this overperforms, but the younger skewing comps have it in the mid-20s.

 

Sherlock Gnomes is being HEAVILY inflated by morning sales. I don't think any of us expected it to appeal to people over the age of ten, and that's all the proof we need.

Paul is still running at 10% of ICOI (1.7M). Not good!

Midnight Sun is running waaaaaaay ahead of Every Day. Spring Break is helping it. I have a feeling this is going to result in some low Derby scores when the average was only around 3M.

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9 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Theater update:

 

  Reveal hidden contents

 

Sherlock Gnomes: 143/686 (133 2D/10 3D) (Up 58)

Pacific Rim: 80/460 (65 2D/15 3D) (Up 22)

I Can Only Imagine: 79/698 (Up 21) (-80% from last week)

Paul, Apostle of Christ: 38/390 (Up 6)

A Wrinkle in Time: 31/390 (Up 7) (+3% from last week)

Black Panther: 31/343 (29 2D/2 3D) (Up 22) (+3% from last week)

Peter Rabbit: 24/301 (Up 6) (-35% from last week)

Midnight Sun: 23/457 (Up 12)

Tomb Raider: 17/390 (11 2D/6 3D) (Up 15) (-55% from last week)

Love, Simon: 5/300 (Up 3) (-85% from last week)

Red Sparrow: 2/67 (Up 2) (-66% from last week)

Unsane: 1/315 (up 1 aka ME)

Death Wish and Jumanji have sold nothing.

 

It's insane that I'm the only person who's bought a ticket for Unsane :hahaha: Hopefully I have that show to myself.

 

Pacific Rim comps:

 

12% of Black Panther (24.2M)

20% of Thor: Ragnarok (24.5M)

25% of Justice League (23.5M)

60% of Dunkirk (30.3M)

60% of Jumanji (21.7M)

75% of Kingsman (29.3M)

205% of The Commuter (28.1M)

 

There's still scenarios where this overperforms, but the younger skewing comps have it in the mid-20s.

 

Sherlock Gnomes is being HEAVILY inflated by morning sales. I don't think any of us expected it to appeal to people over the age of ten, and that's all the proof we need.

Paul is still running at 10% of ICOI (1.7M). Not good!

Midnight Sun is running waaaaaaay ahead of Every Day. Spring Break is helping it. I have a feeling this is going to result in some low Derby scores when the average was only around 3M.

So weird my Paul local theater is selling better than yours...but then again, I probably have less theaters around with the movie:).  It will probably be a more balanced movie than ICOI was OW (where you had some crazy numbers from some theaters and some subpar ones from others)...

 

For the record, my theater for Paul starts with presales of 80/280 for today and better for tomorrow (although Sunday is still light:)...

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MT finally also with gnomes:

#1 PR:U 18.9%  - still rising but slower
#2 ICOI 13.3%
#3 BP 10.2%
#4 Wrinkle 6.5%
#5 Sherlock Gnomes 6.3%

Edit: and again, I shouldn`t double-check the numbers ;).

Edited by el sid
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g9CMdpg.png

 

https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20180323005347/en/MoviePass™-Lowers-Price-6.95-Month

 

MoviePass™, the nation’s premier movie theater subscription service and a majority-owned subsidiary of Helios and Matheson Analytics Inc. (Nasdaq: HMNY), today announced that, for a limited time, it is offering its annual subscription to new subscribers for $6.95/month.

 

The annual $6.95/month plan is available for new MoviePass subscribers only, and gives new subscribers the ability to attend up to one new movie per day in theaters for a whole year. MoviePass works at over 91% of theaters in America. MoviePass, with over two million subscribers, contributed during recent opening weekends 17% of box office to Paramount Picture’s Annihilation, 10% of box office to Orion Picture’s Every Day, and 9% of box office to Fox Studio’s Love, Simon.

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Box Office Pro Predictions

 

Deadpool 2 $100/$242

Show Dogs $8/$25

Book Club $6/$19

 

Changed Predix

Acrimony $15.5 (+7%)/$37 (+6%)

Blockers $14.5 (-19%)/$47 (-21%)

Rampage $27 (+25%)/$65 (+31%)

Truth or Dare $15 (-21%)/$30 (-23%)

 

I think the opening is a bit low for Deadpool 2 as well as the total gross. Rampage increases heavily, maybe we are looking at $35/$85? who knows! Truth or Dare and Blockers are falling a fair amount and Acrimony sees a minor increase before wide release next weekend. Avengers: Infinity War is staying strong at $215/$538

Edited by Mike Hunt
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