Jump to content

The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

Recommended Posts

32 minutes ago, Barnack said:


Comparison of those gathered sales vs actual box office now released, with "adjusted ticket sales" were I count every 3D sales as 1.2 ticket, adding an other 15% if it is IMAX 3D and 10% for regular IMAX, a quick search for the average 3D ticket surcharge didn't brought anything quickly on Google, so I went for those made up numbers, but I imagine some people would have a better idea of what the average surcharge for what type of PLF tend to be, here it tend to be 3$ on a 10.50/11$ ticket type of deal, making that 20% boost one on the reasonable side. That why you can see a fraction for the numbers of ticket sold in the Adj Sales column.


With that little adjustment and by having used a long sampling of time (around 18h30 to midnight), I already upped my correlation factor from 0.89 to 0.95/.96, by sampling a complete week 10 times by hours before the days, filtering for sales for ticket showtime of the actual days we want to estimate box office and with a small correction for genre / rating how many days into the movie run we are, maybe we could get to .97-.98 or so.


Peter rabbit, love simon, wrinkle, etc... played a bit more comparable and sold more before 18h30 I would imagine than the rest, love how close PR:U, BP and TR are, I Can only Imagine/Paul also seem to be playing a bit in the similar way or how closer the R-rated one like Game Night/Red Sparrow/Prey at night/Annihilation are from each other versus the rest, Death wish always played a bit more walk up heavy and below that one the sampling is getting too small to be relevant.


Sunday March 25th, 2018


Title Adj sales Box office $ by sales
Pacific Rim Uprising (2018) 22567.42 7,214,895 319.7
Black Panther 14855.6 5,040,386 339.3
Tomb Raider (2018) 8297.8 2,865,143 345.3
Love Simon 7159 2,101,043 293.5
I Can Only Imagine 6891 4,292,296 622.9
A Wrinkle in Time 5082.4 2,457,156 483.5
Game Night (2018) 4711 1,078,207 228.9
Sherlock Gnomes 4576.6 3,202,603 699.8
Unsane (2018) 3354 947,792 282.6
Paul Apostle of Christ 3219 1,637,641 508.7
Isle of Dogs 2841 486,894 171.4
Midnight Sun (2018) 2573 1,091,000 424.0
Red Sparrow 2418 633,730 262.1
The Strangers Prey at Night 2156 554,614 257.2
Annihilation 1380 270,439 196.0
Peter Rabbit 1083 836,919 772.8
Death Wish (2018) 907 335,346 369.7
The Death of Stalin 480 283,049 589.7
The Greatest Showman 354 181,051 511.4
7 Days in Entebbe 284 180,175 634.4
Jumanji Welcome to the Jungle 235 241,668 1028.4
Fifty Shades Freed 154 78,615 510.5
Thoroughbreds 90 53,605 595.6
The Shape of Water (2017) 75 72,158 962.1
The Hurricane Heist 50 26,599 532.0
Getting Grace 38 33,450 880.3
Star Wars The Last Jedi (2017) 31 27,506 887.3
Gringo (2018) 26 10,512 404.3
Flower (2018) 22 23,409 1064.0
Maze Runner The Death Cure 20 23,380 1169.0
 The 1517 to Paris 18 23,667 1314.8
I Tonya 17.2 16,568 963.3
Three Billboards Outside Ebbing Missouri 17 30,257 1779.8
Lady Bird 14 9,393 670.9
12 Strong 13 10,162 781.7
Ferdinand 10 30,670 3067.0
Hostiles 10 6,059 605.9
Winchester (2018) 10 16,938 1693.8
Coco (2017) 7 37,000 5285.7
The Post 5 22,706 4541.2
Correlation 0.95755577    

Are you... Are you a magical being? An Unicorn? An alien? Did you just get a casual 95.7% box office prediction ratio based on pre-sale or am I misunderstanding it?

  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
13 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Are you... Are you a magical being? An Unicorn? An alien? Did you just get a casual 95.7% box office prediction ratio based on pre-sale or am I misunderstanding it?

Well I will not score that high using only the sales a relevant time before the days I would think too, that technic simply make me able to make that good of a prediction of a day box office around midnight of that very day (not sure if we can still call it a prediction for something that already happened).... a bit too late to be able to use it on any betting type/fantasy BO website I would imagine.


How good it is to predict the box office a couple of days in advance is what could be really useful and I imagine will be more complicated to achieve and give a much smaller correlation level.


Still just for a fun goodies if it is only good at predicting one day or 0 day in advance, following a particular days sales with a converter in expected BO could be fun to have with a little graph that show the burst and the total sales for some day's in particular and for big movies to come.

  • Like 5
  • Disbelief 1
Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Ready Player One

North Shore Cinema

3/28/18 (2 days before previews, 3 days before release)

Mequon, WI


7:00 - 39/301 - USCR 

8:00 - 2/142 - 3D

10:30 - 6/301 - USCR 


Running 2% ahead of Dunkirk ($51.51M OW or 4 Day) and 95% ahead of Time ($64.58M OW/4 day (the latter is a stretch but technically the best mid range openers I can find at the same point in time))

I think $45-50m OW for the four days is doable. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
57 minutes ago, grim22 said:

RPO is on MT


PR2 12.4

ICOI 10.7

BP 10.3

Sherlock Gnomes 7.5

RPO 7.3

It has passed SG now.


PR 12.1%

ICOI 10.9%

BP 10.3%

RPO 7.7%

SG 7.6%

Edited by trifle
  • Like 3
Link to post
Share on other sites
On 3/20/2018 at 12:01 AM, TwoMisfits said:

1st local (Cinemark) is up and not fully booked - they have allocated 10.6 screens out of 12.  Usually that means they are looking at foreign films, but not always...they have not booked every new opener, so they also could be doing some very last minute bookings or saving an extra screen for whichever opener starts rocking presales...here's the current set (I'll update it when they fill in the last screens)...



Pacific Rim 2 (1 - 2d/3d split - 5 showings - 3 2d/ 2 3d - biggest screen)

Sherlock Gnomes (1 - 2d/3d split - 6 showings - 4 2d/2 3d - biggest screen)

MLA (.4 - last 2 showings on Peter's screen)

EDIT - Hitchki (.4 - last 2 showings on Game Night's screen)

EDIT #2 - Rajatha (1)



ICOI (1)

Love Simon (1)

Raid (1)

Tomb Raider (2 - that's crazy - I foresee this being the movie to get showings cut left and right for whatever breakout there is)

AWiT (1) (down a screen)

Black Panther (1 - down another screen this week b/c it's getting tight)

Game Night (.6 - all early showings)

Peter Rabbit (.6 - all early showings)



Annihilation, previous foreign films


EDIT - Now 1 screen open...we'll see who wins it (I'm betting another foreign film now, but we'll see:)...


EDIT #2 - So, even with all those new openers, another foreign film takes the last screen...not a good sign for the lesser openers, I'd think...unless the theater is saving extra screens for RPO on March 29 (since it usually dumps its foreign films in a week unless they really perform)...

1st local (Cinemark) is up - I now know why they skipped all last weekend's movies except the not really big 2 and put in foreign ones...so they could drop all the foreign ones in a week and book most of this week's openers!  Here's the set:)...



Ready Player One (2 - 9 showings - 4 3d / 5 2d - biggest and above average size)

Acrimony (1 -5 showings - smallest)

God's Not Dead 3 - I am surprised they picked this one over Paul last week, but ICOI did end up rocking here, so maybe the modern tales do better (1 - 5 showings - smallest)



Pacific Rim (1) - already drops a screen

Sherlock Gnomes (1)

ICOI (1)

Tomb Raider (1)

AWiT (1)

Black Panther (1)

Foreign Film (1)

Open Screen (1) - I'm betting this is gonna be for the 1 new foreign film they will book



Love Simon (surprised this couldn't break out here, but I think it's the victim of ICOI rocking this theater unexpectedly), Game Night, Peter Rabbit (the rabbit just couldn't stay through Easter - not a surprise, since the cheap theater got the rabbit already this week), all the other foreign films

Edited by TwoMisfits
  • Like 1
  • Sad 1
Link to post
Share on other sites

IW Greater Sacramento Area Seat Report: T-31 Days and counting  





Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold








Total Seats Sold:      49

Edited by Porthos
  • Like 5
Link to post
Share on other sites

This weekend and week at my theater


Sherlock Gnomes 10
Pacific Rim 2 11
Love, Simon 5
I Can Only Imagine 5
Black Panther 8
Midnight Sun 6
Paul 5
Unsane 5
Tomb Raider 5
A Wrinkle in Time 6
Strangers 2 1
Red Sparrow 1
Death Wish 1
Game Night 1
Peter Rabbit 1


Next Weekend/Week


  Showings Change
Ready Player One 20 New
God's Not Dead 3 5 New
Tyler Perry's Acrimony 6 New
Sherlock Gnomes 5 -6
Pacific Rim 2 5 -6
Love, Simon 4 -1
I Can Only Imagine 5 No Change
Black Panther 5 -3
Midnight Sun 2 -4
Paul 5 No Change
Unsane 2 -3
Tomb Raider 4 -1
A Wrinkle in Time 5 -1
Game Night 1 No Change


Gone: Peter Rabbit, Red Sparrow, Strangers 2, Death Wish



Edited by Hiccup23
  • Like 2
Link to post
Share on other sites
6 minutes ago, KeepItU25071906 said:

4-days? It's really below expectations and small numbers. Good for ... LaraCroft with her budget, not for RPO. 

Yeh I don’t think many people have had expectations much higher than that since the trailer dropped lol

Link to post
Share on other sites
11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

Yeh I don’t think many people have had expectations much higher than that since the trailer dropped lol

After SXSW we saw good tempo of presales. 


11 minutes ago, Krissykins said:


2018 is already here. It's too ancient.

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

It will be harder because Wednesday previews won't be that strong.

Do people even realize there are Wednesday previews? I sure didnt... and bought my tickets for thursday

Link to post
Share on other sites

50-60 4-day is possible it seems.

21 + 17 (-19%) + 11.5 (-32%) + 5.5 (-52%) = 55


Sorry didn't realize it was Thursday release. Don't know how to guess the days.

15 + 13 (-13%) + 16 (+23%) + 11 (-31%) = 55

Edited by a2knet
  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
  • Astonished 2
Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

  • Create New...

Important Information

By using this site, you agree to our Terms of Use and Guidelines. Feel free to read our Privacy Policy as well.