The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[The Mad Titan]

13 minutes ago, YLF said:

isnt 30m a lot? that would be the most an MCU film has done

It's definitely a lot but it would be underwhelming given all the pre-sale hype that has been floated around (like Fandango promoting that it was outpacing the last 7 MCU movies combined in presales). 

[MovieMan89]

Yes, 30m previews would be disappointing. Good thing that's not happening. 

[MCKillswitch123]

15 minutes ago, The Mad Titan said:

It's definitely a lot but it would be underwhelming given all the pre-sale hype that has been floated around (like Fandango promoting that it was outpacing the last 7 MCU movies combined in presales). 

UnderGoddamnwhelming? Age Of Ultron made 27.6M, both Civil War and Black Panther fell in the 25M range.... the only superhero movie to cross the 30M preview mark - and one of only 7 movies to date, alongside The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, Deathly Hallows Part 2, Eclipse and Breaking Dawns Parts 1 & 2... Rogue One came very close with 29M; making the 30M previews club exclusive to Star fucking Wars or super frontloaded young adult novel movies - was The Dark Knight Rises, but if Infinity War were to hit its preview number, it would certainly have a better weekend multiplier either way. I mean, even Civil War was more backloaded than TDKR on OW gross.

 

And I'm not sure that it crosses your mind what 30 fucking million in Thursday previews alone are if you find a number like that "underwhelming", even for Infinity War. Infinity War, with or without the mad hype, is NOT a Star Wars episodic movie, so by no means anyone should cry for heavens in disappointment if it "only" makes 30M in previews.

Edited April 19, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[Barnack]

46 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Hard to sell what has already been sold I guess.

 

Just create Credit Default Swaps and put them into Synthetic collateralized debt obligation's ....

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Barnack

[The Mad Titan]

12 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

UnderGoddamnwhelming? Age Of Ultron made 27.6M, both Civil War and Black Panther fell in the 25M range.... the only superhero movie to cross the 30M preview mark - and one of only 7 movies to date, alongside The Force Awakens, The Last Jedi, Deathly Hallows Part 2, Eclipse and Breaking Dawns Parts 1 & 2... Rogue One came very close with 29M; making the 30M previews club exclusive to Star fucking Wars or super frontloaded young adult novel movies - was The Dark Knight Rises, but if Infinity War were to hit its preview number, it would certainly have a better weekend multiplier either way. I mean, even Civil War was more backloaded than TDKR on OW gross.

 

And I'm not sure that it crosses your mind what 30 fucking million in Thursday previews alone are if you find a number like that "underwhelming", even for Infinity War. Infinity War, with or without the mad hype, is NOT a Star Wars episodic movie, so by no means anyone should cry for heavens in disappointment if it "only" makes 30M in previews.

As I said, when it's being promoted that a particular movie has presales HIGHER than the 7 previous entries in the series combined (2 of which are those you mentioned as $25 million), then yes, only being 20% higher than one of those would be a disappointment / underwhelming or whatever you'd like to call it.  

[Frozen]

I take it Traffik isn’t getting reviewed by the press?

[TalismanRing]

1 hour ago, Thematrixfilm said:

the fact that Infinity War is only selling a little more than AQP and Rampage right now makes it seem like it should only be making around 30M in previews.

1. This is a rolling 24 hours that covers Bargain Tues

2. Doesn't look like just a little more

 

2018-04-19 01:01:17.055716 UTC

1	28.9%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12.5%	Quiet Place, A
3	9.8%	Rampage
4	8.1%	Super Troopers 2
5	5.4%	I Feel Pretty

 

On Fandango the difference is even further a part

 

Fandango Tracker: 4.17 daily total (EST)

 

Avengers Infinity War	18,479
A Quiet Place	10,492
Rampage	7,175
Blockers	3,445
RPO	3,252
Super Troopers	3,203
Truth or Dare	3166
I Feel Pretty	1,540
Traffik	156

 

 

Fandango: Today up until 9pm EST

 

Avengers Infinity War	18,501
A Quiet Place	6,095
Super Troopers 2	5,066
Rampage	3,375
I Feel Pretty	3,134
Blockers	1,902
Deadpool 2	1,525
Truth or Dare	1,096

[dxmatrixdt]

Infinity War might *still get a larger number of ticket sales upfront because of a to-end-all of the series. assumption

It is like Avengers 2.0

This might also suggest it to be the #1 choice with upfront demand for a while.

But still, even if the upfront audience is going straight to IW, a lot more of that audience might be waiting to watch it at a later time because of how spread out all the films are.  

 

 

Edited April 19, 2018 by Thematrixfilm

[dxmatrixdt]

6 minutes ago, Frozen said:

I take it Traffik isn’t getting reviewed by the press?

I'm still waiting to see if it goes into 1,000 screens, or 1,250.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

1. This is a rolling 24 hours that covers Bargain Tues

2. Doesn't look like just a little more

 

2018-04-19 01:01:17.055716 UTC

1	28.9%	Avengers: Infinity War
2	12.5%	Quiet Place, A
3	9.8%	Rampage
4	8.1%	Super Troopers 2
5	5.4%	I Feel Pretty

 

On Fandango the difference is even further a part

 

Fandango Tracker: 4.17 daily total (EST)

 

Avengers Infinity War	18,479
A Quiet Place	10,492
Rampage	7,175
Blockers	3,445
RPO	3,252
Super Troopers	3,203
Truth or Dare	3166
I Feel Pretty	1,540
Traffik	156

 

 

Fandango: Today up until 9pm EST

 

Avengers Infinity War	18,501
A Quiet Place	6,095
Super Troopers 2	5,066
Rampage	3,375
I Feel Pretty	3,134
Blockers	1,902
Deadpool 2	1,525
Truth or Dare	1,096

Do you mind me asking where you can find the total number of tickets sold? 

[Nova]

So I just checked my two theaters for I feel Pretty and it's sold a whopping 2 tickets for Thursday across 4 showings 

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, Nova said:

Do you mind me asking where you can find the total number of tickets sold? 

This does an hourly update for Fandango sales

 

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

I cut and paste the relevant hours into excel, sort by title and get the totals

[narniadis]

The fact that we have reached an age when 30m previews would be disappointing is both sad and fascinating at the same time.... 

 

30m would be fine btw, just showing that AIW isn't going to blow the hell out of the current weekend records. 30m would put it around the 220m just under my current 225 expectation. Again this is hypothesizing but the expectations for this film have gotten out of control per the norm for MCU. 

[LeoC]

Disappointment based on unjustified evidence? Interesting.

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, narniadis said:

The fact that we have reached an age when 30m previews would be disappointing is both sad and fascinating at the same time.... 

 

30m would be fine btw, just showing that AIW isn't going to blow the hell out of the current weekend records. 30m would put it around the 220m just under my current 225 expectation. Again this is hypothesizing but the expectations for this film have gotten out of control per the norm for MCU. 

$30m would be about the same for AOU adjusted for ticket inflation and with AOU or CW's preview to internal multi would yield ~ $208 - $213m.

 

Regardless, looking at the rate of pre-sales and the data we have so far I'd find it difficult believe that it's Thurs would only $5m more than CW and BP. 

[manny1234]

If It's preview numbers are between TLJ and TFA I think it still can beat TFA opening weekend since it might be more backloaded.

[narniadis]

2 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

$30m would be about the same for AOU adjusted for ticket inflation and with AOU or CW's preview to internal multi would yield ~ $208 - $213m.

 

Regardless, looking at the rate of pre-sales and the data we have so far I'd find it difficult believe that it's Thurs would only $5m more than CW and BP. 

 

The point being though that 30m is not and never should be considered a disappointment. We have a ton of pre-sale data but until now the MCU has never been in the "preview monster" camp I mean there were folks genuinely disappointed back in 2012 by the 18m previews that TA1 pulled in. 

 

Expectations will be out of control for most of the board by this time next week and the film can only then "fail" by doing just fine in comparison.... it's breathtakingly annoying.

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, manny1234 said:

If It's preview numbers are between TLJ and TFA I think it still can beat TFA opening weekend since it might be more backloaded.

I don't have much doubt it will be less preview front loaded. 

 

It's 1) not a holiday period 2) not Star Wars 3) would have to be substantially more front loaded than any MCU movie by a wide margin

[dxmatrixdt]

predicting theater counts for tomorrow

 

new - 3,400 - I Feel Pretty

new - 2,040 - Super Troopers

new - ???? - Traffik

n.c. - 4,101 - Rampage

n.c. - 3,029 - Truth or Dare

n.c. - 1,939 - Isle of Dogs

n.c. - 1,658 - Sgt. Stubby

n.c. - 755 - Beirut 

n.c. - 3,589 - A Quiet Place

(-300) - 3,118 - Blockers

(-400) - 3,261 - Ready Player

(-500) - 1,680 - Black Panther

(-598) - 1,975 - Imagine

(-500) - 1,145 - Chappaquiddick

(-500) - 832 - Acrimony

(-700) - 1,416 - Sherlock

(-700) - 1,007 - Miracle

(-700) - 837 - Uprising

(-300) - 812 - Time

(-300) - 589 - Love

(-250) - 331 - Paul

(-250) - 252 - Tomb

 

the 19 holdovers from last weekend amounted to roughly 38k screens.

the above predictions amount to roughly 38k screens 

[Porthos]

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-8 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

4/135 (nc/+4)

 

2D:  2/90 (nc/+3)

3D:  2/45 (nc/+1)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 98 showings [+3]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

5 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (nc)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

33 (nc)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

6 (+1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/215 (nc)    

St: 0/216 (nc)

Su: 0/209 (nc)  

 

—

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (98/135 showings [+3/+4]):

100%:      4  (nc)

90-99%:  11 (nc)

80-89%:  20 (+2)

70-79%:  20 (nc)

60-69%:  15 (-1)

50-59%:   5  (+2)

40-49%:   4 (-2)

30-39%:   2 (+1)

20-29%:   6 (nc)

10-19%:   3 (+1)

0-9%:      8 (nc)

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	4	135	4628	13013	64.44%

 

Total Shows Added Today:     4 (3 w/reserved seating)

Total Seats Added Today:   340

Total Seats Sold Today:      207

---

2.4283 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (8385 vs 3453)

 

======

 

NOTE:  Infinity War has now* passed the total number of tickets Black Panther sold that I tracked locally for Opening Night**.

 

* technically it passed the total number last night but I wasn't paying close enough attention.

** Last checked about 30 minutes before the 7pm showings

Edited April 19, 2018 by Porthos