The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[somebody85]

Alright 9:30 here now about an hour and a half until the latest showtime, since the last time I posted only 4 more seats have sold for the 10:40, 10:50 and 11 showings. There is not a single seat sold for 10:50 or 11. Going to one of them.

[somebody85]

3 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I can't shake the feeling expectations have just gotten completely out of control since reviews dropped.

 

It's always fun to watch a movie way overperform, and despite my reservations, this film is a step forward for the DCEU. So I would love to be wrong!

It's going to open big but the previews are going to be muted due to the NBA finals and I think WOM might carry it through the weekend if audiences feel like the critics did. I never felt that much event hype before this but thought that the reviews might change that....not seeing it so far with tonights showings, at least at this theater. I'm going to see it and am pretty hyped so I'm not trying to trash the movie or anything. I'm kind of surprised.

[MattW]

Theaters around me tonight look pretty similar to when gotg2 opened (I keep meaning to start keeping track of actual numbers but so far I've been too lazy). Taking everything into account so far I'm guessing around 12m for previews and the opening in the 95-100 range. 

[TalismanRing]

33 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

They must have paid attention to dem trailer views.

 

Pirates will be down below $15m by then, Guardians' maybe $5m and Baywatch & Aliens left for dead.  Lots of screens will be vacant so even if it does $20m it's better than whatever else would be playing on most of them.

 

Edited June 2, 2017 by TalismanRing

[trifle]

12 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

I can't shake the feeling expectations have just gotten completely out of control since reviews dropped.

 

It's always fun to watch a movie way overperform, and despite my reservations, this film is a step forward for the DCEU. So I would love to be wrong!

 

I'm rotten predicting this stuff, but I have noticed the psychology of this site is to jump to overexpectations right before an opening.  I thought it would be around $100M, maybe a little below, and I think it will be around $100M, maybe a little below.  Which would be excellent.

 

3 minutes ago, MattW said:

Theaters around me tonight look pretty similar to when gotg2 opened (I keep meaning to start keeping track of actual numbers but so far I've been too lazy). Taking everything into account so far I'm guessing around 12m for previews and the opening in the 95-100 range. 

 

That's what I'm thinking, but I'm hoping for a break out above it.

[somebody85]

Final update before going to see this. Both 10:50 and 11:00 shows are completely empty. Both are about a half hour away. Damn.

Maybe they overestimated the demand? But I'll take a small quiet theater!

Edited June 2, 2017 by somebody85

[BeastByTheBay]

9 minutes ago, somebody85 said:

Final update before going to see this. Both 10:50 and 11:00 shows are completely empty. Both are about a half hour away. Damn.

Maybe they overestimated the demand? But I'll take a small quiet theater!

 

NBA Finals

[commonsense88]

Theater parking lot pretty full but 9:50 show only 15% full

[TheMovieman]

Update at my theater, the 7:45 did sell out, so people did buy up those front row seats.

 

And the next showing at 8:30, in a much smaller theater, could sell out as well with only 20 seats left.

Edited June 2, 2017 by TheMovieman

[John Marston]

Apparently Australian opening comparison would lead to a lower opening weekend than Logan or Doctor Strange

[TalismanRing]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

Apparently Australian opening comparison would lead to a lower opening weekend than Logan or Doctor Strange

 

Lower than Pirates.... 

 

I don't see that though - at least not looking at NYC Fandango previews

[John Marston]

Just now, TalismanRing said:

 

Lower than Pirates.... 

 

I don't see that though - at least not looking at NYC Fandango previews

 

 

yeah but are those previews looking at an opening for  100m or 80m range you think? 

[Nova]

Australia's OD for WW was really weak. I don't think it's going to be of any use to use that number in order to predict how WW will do in the states. Simply put....using a conversion/multiplier WW would make only $61M for its OW in the states....which there are zero signs of it opening that low. 

[aabattery]

1 minute ago, TalismanRing said:

 

Lower than Pirates.... 

 

I don't see that though - at least not looking at NYC Fandango previews

 

It's a higher OD than Pirates, from what I'm seeing. Pirates had 994K, WW has 1.12M. Still, seems quite low compared to expectations.

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, aabattery said:

 

It's a higher OD than Pirates, from what I'm seeing. Pirates had 994K, WW has 1.12M. Still, seems quite low compared to expectations.

 

Pirates in the US had a Memorial Day Sunday - which skews the ratio a bit.  Without it it would have done around $57m

[franfar]

1 hour ago, franfar said:

Just took a glance at a nearby AMC's seating, and the IMAX showing for 10:40 (around 3 hrs from now) looks about 1/3 full. Room is pretty big; over 330 seats. That's the only screening that has reserved seating, though.

 

At a nearby Cinemark, the Cinemark XD showing at 10:15 has 245 seats and looks around half full. At 8 and 9:30, there are RealD 3D showings of around 100 seats each, and the earlier one is about full (except for the front crappy rows), while the later one is around 1/3 full.

 

The normal Digital showings stretch from 7:45 to 10:45 PM. The auditoriums vary in size. First three showings (8:30, 8:45, 9:00) are around 100 seats and are all almost full, as is the 10:00 showing of around 60 seats. Next one at 9:15 is around 67 seats and is around half full. Showing at 10:30 has 100 seats and is half full, and final showing for tonight (10:45) has over 250 seats and is around half full.

 

Good showings all around.

Update:

 

Cinemark XD showing at 10:15 hasn't really budged. Still half full.

 

Normal Digital 10:00 showing is totally full except for front row, 10:30 and 10:45 showings are still around half full.

[DeeCee]

Very low opening in Australia. 

 

AUD1.12m. 

 

AUD5-6m OW

 

USD70-75m Domestic at best unless Australia is an unusually big outlier for WW. 

 

 

[Biggestgeekever]

1 minute ago, DeeCee said:

Very low opening in Australia. 

 

AUD1.12m. 

 

AUD5-6m OW

 

USD70-75m Domestic at best unless Australia is an unusually big outlier for WW. 

 

 

 

Could the setting explain why Australia might not be as responsive to it (assuming, of course, Australia IS an outlier)?

Edited June 2, 2017 by Biggestgeekever

[aabattery]

New Zealands number seems a lot better in comparison, but NZ has never been as good a match for USA than Aus. We go for weird shit all the time.

 

If it follows Doctor Strange, it'll make just over 2M. Which is on par with Beauty and the Beast. But the Australia numbers are definitely a reason for concern.

 

[TalismanRing]

21 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

 

Could the setting explain why Australia might not be as responsive to it (assuming, of course, Australia IS an outlier)?

 

Could be, or sometimes the character doesn't click as much

 

CA: TWS had a 15.7 multi  which is a huge outlier among SH films (CW in comparison was the more usual 12.9) - though that tightened up by the final total.

 

 

Edited June 2, 2017 by TalismanRing