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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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I'm a  bit conflicted on IW beating the opening weekend record. $250 million seems nearly impossible for any non-Star Wars movie to break but there is an argument that TFA could've had an even bigger OW if it was opening on another weekend. Pre-Christmas weekend is always a bit depressed because of holiday shopping.

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1 minute ago, TLK said:

I'm a  bit conflicted on IW beating the opening weekend record. $250 million seems nearly impossible for any non-Star Wars movie to break but there is an argument that TFA could've had an even bigger OW if it was opening on another weekend. Pre-Christmas weekend is always a bit depressed because of holiday shopping.

TFA's opening was depressed because of the holidays - that goes for most films - which then contributes to better legs

 

The Avengers inflation adjusts to a $235m opening - with only $18m in previews and far fewer PLF and IMAX screens than TFA had or AIW will have.  It would mean AIW selling 1.4m avg priced tickets more to hit $248m.

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I will admit the 4,200 tc is extremely disappointing. I know a bunch of screenings can be added to make room for demand, but I still don't understand why it's opening in a lower tc than movies like GotG2 and Homecoming? Especially with literally no competition. 

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11 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will admit the 4,200 tc is extremely disappointing. I know a bunch of screenings can be added to make room for demand, but I still don't understand why it's opening in a lower tc than movies like GotG2 and Homecoming? Especially with literally no competition. 

Maybe those avengers have higher demand regarding exhibition ? Civil war had 4,226 vs 4,347 for Guardian 2 with a very similar date just one year apart.

 

One other reason could be the number of drive through open for those summer release vs next weekend in the north and Canada I imagine many are still close ?

 

Last Jedi got 4,232, Force Awaken 4,134

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41 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will admit the 4,200 tc is extremely disappointing. I know a bunch of screenings can be added to make room for demand, but I still don't understand why it's opening in a lower tc than movies like GotG2 and Homecoming? Especially with literally no competition. 

And until next thursday its only a rough estimate and not set in stone. 

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3 hours ago, MovieMan89 said:

I will admit the 4,200 tc is extremely disappointing. I know a bunch of screenings can be added to make room for demand, but I still don't understand why it's opening in a lower tc than movies like GotG2 and Homecoming? Especially with literally no competition. 

A decent amount of the remainder is drive ins, which not all of them open until May. That’s why the highest theater counts are usually in the thick of summer. As far as why films don’t break DM3’s theater count record? Small 1-2 screen theaters in small towns don’t care about the big action tentpole films. Films for younger play much better in those areas while the megaopeners we come to know would be in a multiplex in a different town 

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FANDANGO TRACKER

 

4-20-18  Daily Total 

(EST)

 
Avengers Infinity War 14,318
Super Troopers 2 14,083
I Feel Pretty 9,249
A Quiet Place 8,098
Rampage 5,252
Deadpool 2 3,705
Blockers 2,865
Ready Player  2,810
Traffik 2,275
Truth or Dare 1,665
Edited by TalismanRing
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IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-6 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

5/138 (nc/+2)

 

2D:  3/92 (nc/+1)

3D:  2/46 (nc/+1)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 101 showings [+2]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

4 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

38 (+3)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

6 (+1)

 

Weekend Showings

Fr: 0/224 (+0/+9)    

St: 0/225 (+0/+9)

Su: 0/218 (+0/+9)  

 

 

Reserved Seating Breakdown (101/138 showings [+2/+2]):

100%:      5  (nc)

90-99%:  10 (-1)

80-89%:  20 (+2)

70-79%:  26 (+3)

60-69%:  11 (-6)

50-59%:  10 (+4)

40-49%:   6 (+3)

30-39%:   1 (-4)

20-29%:   6 (+3)

10-19%:   3 (-1)

0-9%:      3 (-1)

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

5

138

4275

13284

67.82%

 

Total Shows Added Today:     2

Total Seats Added Today:   160

Total Seats Sold Today:      265

---

2.3608 times as many seats sold as Black Panther at this point in time (9009 vs 3816)

 

-----

 

Infinity War has now passed the total number of showings that Black Panther had on the day of release in the Greater Sacramento area (138 v 136).

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2 hours ago, Porthos said:

IW GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT UPDATE: T-6 Days and counting  

 

Sellouts: 

5/138 (nc/+2)

 

2D:  3/92 (nc/+1)

3D:  2/46 (nc/+1)        

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 101 showings [+2]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

4 (nc)         

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

6 (-1)

 

Front Two Rows Only (or equivalent)

38 (+3)

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

6 (+1)

 

Just to draw a Compare and Contrast.

 

THIS was the state of TLJ six days out (with Rogue One in brackets):

 

Quote

(TLJ) GREATER SACRAMENTO SELLOUT REPORT: T-6 days

 

Previews: 31/132 (+1/+0) [R1: 7/107 showings]

(Includes Double Feature & Opening Night Fan Event)

 

2D: 26/88 (+0/+0) [R1: 5/70]

3D: 5/44 (+1/0)   [R1: 2/36]

 

<<Reserved Theater Info: 81 showings [R1: 46 showings]>>

 

Almost Sold Out (95%+ sold out)

13 (+2) [R1: 3]

 

Nearly Sold Out (90% to 94% sold out)

5 (-1) [R1: 5]

 

Front Two Rows Only (or the equivalent amount of seats)

28 (nc) [R1: 19]

 

Heavily Sold (75% to 89% sold out)

2 (nc) [R1: 0]

 

NOTE:  If a showing only has wheelchair and wheelchair companion seats left, it is counted as a sellout

Star Wars fans are fucking nuts when it comes to 'Saga'* films and presales. :lol:

 

* I say Saga films because Rogue One didn't come remotely close to those numbers

 

Also shows just how damn important walkups are and how well Marvel does with them. :)

 

(Don't have a seat count or % seat data [and I long ago deleted that spreadsheet] but at that level of sellouts, it really doesn't matter.)

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1 hour ago, Porthos said:

Just to draw a Compare and Contrast.

 

THIS was the state of TLJ six days out (with Rogue One in brackets):

 

Star Wars fans are fucking nuts when it comes to 'Saga'* films and presales. :lol:

 

* I say Saga films because Rogue One didn't come remotely close to those numbers

 

Also shows just how damn important walkups are and how well Marvel does with them. :)

 

(Don't have a seat count or % seat data [and I long ago deleted that spreadsheet] but at that level of sellouts, it really doesn't matter.)

Thanks. 

 

While well behind TLJ SW saga mania it's as the Fandango report shows AIW significantly ahead of Rogue One

 

It has 2 less sellouts but 29% more showings and in two rows or less to sellouts has a 54 to 38 advantage.  (while TLJ has 77)  R.O. did $29m in previews. So adding the expected bigger Marvel walk ups and $40m+ is looking quite possible.

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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36 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Thanks. 

 

While well behind TLJ SW saga mania it's as the Fandango report shows AIW significantly ahead of Rogue One

 

It has 2 less sellouts but 29% more showings and in two rows or less to sellouts has a 54 to 38 advantage.  (while TLK has 77)  R.O. did $29m in previews. So adding the expected bigger Marvel walk ups and $40m+ is looking quite possible.

The Lion King? :kitschjob:

 

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http://deadline.com/2018/04/deadpool-2-advance-movie-ticket-sales-1202372824/

 

20th Century Fox’s Deadpool 2 is breaking more advance-ticket sales records. Fandango now is reporting that Deadpool 2 is already pacing to be the top R-rated preseller in its 18-year history, outstripping 2015’s Fifty Shades of Grey. That’s big, considering that Fandango covers sales for more than 30K screens across the country.

 

In a recent Fandango survey of over 4,500 moviegoers, Deadpool 2 was the second-most anticipated summer blockbuster of 2018. Reynolds topped the list of the most anticipated summer movie stars, while Beetz’s portrayal of Domino came in as the most anticipated breakout female performance.

 

 

This is the first we’re hearing about Deadpool 2 advance ticket sales and in their first 24-hours they’ve broken records for CineWorld’s Regal Cinemas Within 4 hours of going on sale, Deadpool 2 had already doubled the previous 24-hour bench mark that Regal had. Also the Marvel sequel broke the record for the previous R-rated movie sold on Regal’s website, New Line’s It. 

 

We’re hearing that advance sales are huge overall with Cinemark even besting Regal’s sales by at least 50%.

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Feels like summer 07.

 

TFA OW ticket sales with identical 3D/IMAX/PLF splits + 2.67% annual inflation @ 2.5 years is ~264M.  I think ticket sales end up being about the same for AIW (weaker previews/presales, stronger Fri-Sun/walk-ups).  I expect a 265M OW (+/- 10M for varying 3D/IMAX/PLF splits).

 

Unfortunately I won't have time to do a sellout tracker, but I will post ticket price comps for TA, AOU, TFA/RO/TLJ and anything else I have on record.

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