The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[cax16]

15 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

Very low opening in Australia. 

 

AUD1.12m. 

 

AUD5-6m OW

 

USD70-75m Domestic at best unless Australia is an unusually big outlier for WW. 

 

 

Dr strange and Logan both opened to over 85m and neither did over 6m in Australia opening weekend. Does the multiplier change for different franchises? 

[aabattery]

NZ multis for superhero movies are all over the wall. Lowest I've found so far is 60 (for Suicide Squad) and highest is 85 (for Civil War). I'll keep having a look but if WW does 1.8M, which is my current prediction for Wonder Woman here, I'd say the OW can be anything from 105 to 170 in the states. I'd be inclined to think Australia is being weird, because that number just seems really low. I'd be very surprised if the DOM OW was that small.

Edited June 2, 2017 by aabattery

[TalismanRing]

5 minutes ago, cax16 said:

Dr strange and Logan both opened to over 85m and neither did over 6m in Australia opening weekend. Does the multiplier change for different franchises? 

 

I think you're looking at US $ not AUS

 

Dr. Strange did $6.478m in AUS $ .  Logan did $7.8m

[Brainiac5]

10 hours ago, Nova said:

I was responding to another poster who asked me why I think it's embarrassing to low ball WW the way Warner Bros is. And I'm not the only one who thinks they're low balling the film nor am I the only one who has commented on it. If you don't like what I have to say, then just keep scrolling along. 

All I'm asking is what's the problem?

why does it have to be a bad thing if a studio lowball a film that they have financed?

Maybe they are just going with their  initial  Expectations.

By the way of you like  criticism in a box office discussion...."just keep scrolling along"

[Arlborn]

Previews will likely be a bit lower than a lot of people here and thinking and it should still get close to Suicide Squad numbers. I don't think we will know much until we start getting some Saturday numbers but we will see.

[Nova]

Just now, Brainiac5 said:

All I'm asking is what's the problem?

why does it have to be a bad thing if a studio lowball a film that they have financed?

Maybe they are just going with their  initial  Expectations.

By the way of you like  criticism in a box office discussion...."just keep scrolling along"

I already addressed the problem I personally had with it when you responded to me and your response at the time added nothing to the conversation. Your response was pretty much telling me to not comment on the situation. That's not criticism. 

[DeeCee]

AUD1,119,814 is the exact figure.  Using the multiplier of a few other films we get the following OW totals.
 
Pirates 5 - AUD6.625m
Kong - AUD7.5m
Logan - AUD6.5m
FB - AUD5.2m
DS - AUD5.66m
 
I'm going to be optimistic and say it falls between AUD6-6.5m.
 
For it to hit USD100m Domestic that would be a 15 times multiplier if it opens to AUD6.5 in Australia.
 
I suppose I'm going to have to have faith in the system and set a maximum.
 
AUD6.5m x 13 = USD84.5.
 
I'm calling a Domestic ceiling of USD85m.  I think it will fall between USD70-80m.
 
Is Wonder Woman the film that breaks the system?

[AndyLL]

5 minutes ago, DeeCee said:

AUD1,119,814 is the exact figure.  Using the multiplier of a few other films we get the following OW totals.
 
Pirates 5 - AUD6.625m
Kong - AUD7.5m
Logan - AUD6.5m
FB - AUD5.2m
DS - AUD5.66m
 
I'm going to be optimistic and say it falls between AUD6-6.5m.
 
For it to hit USD100m Domestic that would be a 15 times multiplier if it opens to AUD6.5 in Australia.
 
I suppose I'm going to have to have faith in the system and set a maximum.
 
AUD6.5m x 13 = USD84.5.
 
I'm calling a Domestic ceiling of USD85m.  I think it will fall between USD70-80m.
 
Is Wonder Woman the film that breaks the system?

 

I think it will do a bit better than the typical CBM movie and hit 95.

 

It will be interesting to see the Derby average and the Derby top 10 players average

[excel1]

This is a weekend film, I suspect.

[Brainiac5]

28 minutes ago, Nova said:

I already addressed the problem I personally had with it when you responded to me and your response at the time added nothing to the conversation. Your response was pretty much telling me to not comment on the situation. That's not criticism. 

The complaint altogether added nothing to the conversation.

I wasn't saying not to comment on the situation I was saying there is no situation.

I feel there is no problem here so that's somewhat  criticism.

Edited June 2, 2017 by Brainiac5

[TheMovieman]

Locally not sure about the earlier showing, but the 11:15pm looks pretty good. 129 seats, 82 sold, 62.5% full with still 85 minutes to go. Only caveat is 34 of those seats are in the front row, so not sure how well those will sell, but the 7:15 showing did sell out so who knows.

Edited June 2, 2017 by TheMovieman

[XO21]

 

I can WW totally mirroring Mockinjay Part 2 - $103m OW, $280m DOM, $600-650m WW

[Krissykins]

I still think around $80m opening weekend and I'm sticking with my original prediction. 

 

 

[Krissykins]

I think: 

 

$10m previews 

$35-36m Friday

$80m weekend. 

[POTUS 2020]

3 hours ago, AndyLL said:

 

I think it will do a bit better than the typical CBM movie and hit 95.

 

It will be interesting to see the Derby average and the Derby top 10 players average

Derby Average  113.3m

Top 5 players      99.4m

 

48 players this week. The most in a year

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, POTUS said:

Derby Average  113.3m

Top 5 players      99.4m

 

48 players this week. The most in a year

 

 I see you went low with 85.  I think that might happen but couldn't pull the trigger.  I hedged my bets and almost split the difference between 80 and 110 and went with 94.

 

Edited June 2, 2017 by TalismanRing

[POTUS 2020]

20 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 I see you went low with 85.  I think that might happen but couldn't pull the trigger.  I hedged my bets and almost split the difference between 80 and 110 and went with 94.

 

OZ has been good for me on OW picks that are much higher or lower than expected.

Matrix is on fire and went with 111.  

Edited June 2, 2017 by POTUS

[dxmatrixdt]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

 

 I see you went low with 85.  I think that might happen but couldn't pull the trigger.  I hedged my bets and almost split the difference between 80 and 110 and went with 94.

 

 

1 hour ago, POTUS said:

OZ has been good for me on OW picks that are much higher or lower than expected.

Matrix is on fire and went with 111.  

 

Prisoner of Azkaban holds the post-Memorial Day record with 93.7.  I was thinking 94 was a good target months ago, but all these sell out reports made me change my mind and predict the post-Memorial Day record would be a blowout.  It seems like things can happen....Just like when Halloween opened on Labor Day or Sully post LD last year.

[alisson23]

At this point I don't see how under $100m is possible. These Australia numbers means nothing to USA.

[FantasticBeasts]

I am not trying to pretend the expert but isn't WW a far bigger brand in USA than pretty much the rest of the world?

I actually know a lot of people here (Italy) that do not even acknowledge the existence of Wonder Woman.

Those Australian numbers may not be that indicative due to the reason stated above. 

I guess we will find out soon enough but, $70-75m seems just none sense with the presales and buzz this is having.