The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Hades]

1 minute ago, YLF said:

Its behind freaking apocalypse omg

[TLK]

On 5/22/2018 at 12:41 PM, TLK said:

Solo's Monday transactions on Fandango : 13688.

 

Comparison

Deadpool 2 : 23134

A:IW           : 49836

 

Source - http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

Tuesday update : Solo 15855 transactions. That's up nearly 16% over Monday. Deadpool 2 had a 25% increase and A:IW had a small 10% jump but it had already sold an enormous number of tickets coming into the week so that was expected. It doesn't look good for Solo if these numbers are representative of the bigger picture.

Edited May 23, 2018 by TLK

[Porthos]

Solo has pulled ahead of DP2 for the overnight hours over on Fandango (it didn't come close overnight yesterday).

 

Kinda doubt it'll be ahead of DP2 during the day today, but probably will once the evening hours roll in.

[dxmatrixdt]

2 hours ago, Porthos said:

 

----

.4169x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 3 days before release. (IW had 21 more days of pre-sales)
.8526x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 3 days before release. (BP had 18 more days of pre-sales)
.8836x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2* 3 days before release. (DP2 had two [or so] more days of pre-sales)

If Solo is at .88ish of Deadpool 2 from here on out, maybe Solo will somehow have less upfront demand and still match 125 3-day at least.

 

whatever happens, I'm still hoping for a 29m + Thursday preview number

[FantasticBeasts]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Since all theaters have declared showtimes

 

Preview sellout update for Solo in the LA area:

3 sellouts  / 503 showtimes 

 

Comps

CA3 22 sellouts / 607 showtimes

BVS had 34 sellouts / 578 showtimes

ULTRON had 28 sellouts / 700 showtimes

SUICIDE SQUAD was 41 sellouts / 455 showtimes

MOCKINGJAY 1 21 sellouts / 435 showtimes

FURIOUS 7 had 55 sellouts / 471 showtimes (skewed way too much towards LA so not exactly a great comp)

MAN OF STEEL had 48 sellouts / 220 showtimes (midnights only)

ROGUE ONE 69 sellouts / 658 showtimes

GUARDIANS 2 14 sellouts / 453 showtimes

APOCALYPSE: 13 Sellouts / 295 Showtimes (on Monday)

ALICE 2: 0 Sellouts / 235 showtimes (on Monday)

F8: 335 showtimes / 12 sellouts

PIRATES 5 0 sellouts / 265 showtimes

 

Honestly this is beyond terrible. I fell that sub 100 is almost locked for the 3 day. I don't want to think how low it could go with those comparisons in mind...

Edited May 23, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[Biggestgeekever]

1 hour ago, grim22 said:

Since all theaters have declared showtimes

 

Preview sellout update for Solo in the LA area:

3 sellouts  / 503 showtimes 

 

Comps

CA3 22 sellouts / 607 showtimes

BVS had 34 sellouts / 578 showtimes

ULTRON had 28 sellouts / 700 showtimes

SUICIDE SQUAD was 41 sellouts / 455 showtimes

MOCKINGJAY 1 21 sellouts / 435 showtimes

FURIOUS 7 had 55 sellouts / 471 showtimes (skewed way too much towards LA so not exactly a great comp)

MAN OF STEEL had 48 sellouts / 220 showtimes (midnights only)

ROGUE ONE 69 sellouts / 658 showtimes

GUARDIANS 2 14 sellouts / 453 showtimes

APOCALYPSE: 13 Sellouts / 295 Showtimes (on Monday)

ALICE 2: 0 Sellouts / 235 showtimes (on Monday)

F8: 335 showtimes / 12 sellouts

PIRATES 5 0 sellouts / 265 showtimes

 

This makes me think that, assuming there isn't a huge uptick in presales the next couple days (and its performance on fandango pulse on Tuesday doesn't suggest that'll be the case), it's probably looking at $13-15M on Thursday.

 

Any comps with Justice League?

[Stewart]

7 minutes ago, Thematrixfilm said:

If Solo is at .88ish of Deadpool 2 from here on out, maybe Solo will somehow have less upfront demand and still match 125 3-day at least.

 

whatever happens, I'm still hoping for a 29m + Thursday preview number

[dxmatrixdt]

4 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

This makes me think that, assuming there isn't a huge uptick in presales the next couple days (and its performance on fandango pulse on Tuesday doesn't suggest that'll be the case), it's probably looking at $13-15M on Thursday.

 

Any comps with Justice League?

King Kong (2005) adjusted Wed-Sun OW = approx. 94.5

Justice League did 93.8

 

If Solo pulls these numbers with the stronger Sunday 100/125 should still be reachable

[dxmatrixdt]

hey, I'm just reserving this spot so I can leave my bank account information here, so I can access it tomorrow.  ill get back to it when I get ahold of them on the phone.  thanks.

[Nova]

Not surprisingly last night Solo got an extra 3 3D showings and 1 2D showing.

 

So I guess I'll be doing an updated seat count for that later in the evening. 

[pepsa]

Wait what? It's looking at 110m 3day and 135m 4day? It will still get $325m dom right?

[Brainbug]

7 minutes ago, pepsa said:

Wait what? It's looking at 110m 3day and 135m 4day? It will still get $325m dom right?

 

From the presales and anecdotical data we have an opening on par with Justice League is certainly possible (90M+ 3-Day/110M+ 4-Day). Solo really needs some great walk-up-business to balance out the (for SW) lackluster presales. If it really opens under 100M 3-Day, a 300M DOM total would be in jeopardy.

[MCKillswitch123]

If we live in a world where a Star Wars movie post-Force Awakens can make sub-100M 3-day OW or sub-300M DOM..... that might be even more embarassing than Justice League. Okay, maybe not more embrassing (JL was DC's Avengers after all), but in the same range. Solo should have not been released in May, like ever. The moment they knew TLJ was divisiv---HELL, the moment Lord & Miller left, it should've been pushed to December. Mary Poppins could have come out on the 1st w/e of November instead (Nutcracker goes to Nov/Dec 2019).

Edited May 23, 2018 by MCKillswitch123

[pepsa]

5 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

 

From the presales and anecdotical data we have an opening on par with Justice League is certainly possible (90M+ 3-Day/110M+ 4-Day). Solo really needs some great walk-up-business to balance out the (for SW) lackluster presales. If it really opens under 100M 3-Day, a 300M DOM total would be in jeopardy.

That sucks, I know that the hype isn't that big but it's still SW. Dom has to save this, because I don't see OS doing much.

[Stewart]

27 minutes ago, Nova said:

Not surprisingly last night Solo got an extra 3 3D showings and 1 2D showing.

 

So I guess I'll be doing an updated seat count for that later in the evening. 

NO! 

 

You said you were staying off to revise for exam an exam tomorrow (today maybe?) 

 

Unless I've completely confused you with someone else lol

[Darth Lehnsherr]

32 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

If we live in a world where a Star Wars movie post-Force Awakens can make sub-100M 3-day OW or sub-300M DOM..... that might be even more embarassing than Justice League. Okay, maybe not more embrassing (JL was DC's Avengers after all), but in the same range. Solo should have not been released in May, like ever. The moment they knew TLJ was divisiv---HELL, the moment Lord & Miller left, it should've been pushed to December. Mary Poppins could have come out on the 1st w/e of November instead (Nutcracker goes to Nov/Dec 2019).

Yeah this would be a bigger shock to me than Justice League. BvS did "only" gross $330M so a $30M+ decline for JL was in the realm of possibility (still unthinkable of course and how MUCH that film declined was the real shock). 

 

But yeah Solo doing under $300M would be worse because if that happened I can't see a scenario where it gets even close to JL's Overseas numbers. 

Maybe it's me ignoring the signs but I still firmly believe this easily does over $300M but definitely my expectations have gone down over the past week for this film. 

Edited May 23, 2018 by Darth Lehnsherr

[Nova]

Just now, feasby007 said:

NO! 

 

You said you were staying off to revise for exam an exam tomorrow (today maybe?) 

 

Unless I've completely confused you with someone else lol

You haven't  I have a biomechanics exam tomorrow at 10AM and I should be studying for it but instead I'm lurking on BOT. 

[TwoMisfits]

23 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

If we live in a world where a Star Wars movie post-Force Awakens can make sub-100M 3-day OW or sub-300M DOM..... that might be even more embarassing than Justice League. Okay, maybe not more embrassing (JL was DC's Avengers after all), but in the same range. Solo should have not been released in May, like ever. The moment they knew TLJ was divisiv---HELL, the moment Lord & Miller left, it should've been pushed to December. Mary Poppins could have come out on the 1st w/e of November instead (Nutcracker goes to Nov/Dec 2019).

Mary Poppins could have come out now - it would have had 3 weeks all to itself for families with enormous pent up demand and loads of schools off for the summer...

[TwoMisfits]

On 5/20/2018 at 1:19 PM, TwoMisfits said:

Gonna put Thursday night presales out at my 2 locals for SW...gonna try to update this post as the week goes...

 

1st local (Cinemark) - the one that lags a little on male 12-45 demo movies...

Solo - 5 showings - 4 2d/1 3d

Current sales 2d = 143/190, 75/110, 65/190, 2/110  = 285/600

Current sales 3d = 59/110

Total sales = 344/710

 

2nd local (Regal) - aka, the one that usually sells male 12-45 demo movies...

Solo - 5 showings - 3 2d/2 3d

Current sales 2d = 63/100, 31/175, 8/100 = 102/375

Current sales 3d = 46/100, 8/100 = 54/200

Total sales 156/575

 

I'm amazed that the Regal is lagging the Cinemark, but part of that may be the Cinemark put both bigger screens and more showings at 7-8pm (3 vs 2) and less 3d (2 vs 1)...and has more tickets currently available...however, both just don't have that many for what Forbes says is a $170M tracked 4 day...I mean, this needs to (at least) double its available preshowings (and start to sell them) to have a good chance at that kinda number...

Okay, I'm gonna update...I missed the Regal's opening fan show b/c it doesn't show up on a Solo search, so I was wrong yesterday - they still have the same set as Sunday, but the fan show does give them a lot more seats sold:)...still amazingly low availability at the Regal for this movie, but here's the update...

 

Cinemark

Solo 10 showings (5 more than Sunday - added yesterday at noon) (2 3d / 8 3d)

2d 163/190, 80/110, (9pm added show blank - Fandango error or theater pulling?), 0/60 (added), 80/190,  6/110, (11:55pm and 12:05 am added shows also blank - will check later today to see what the deal is) = 329/660 (should have more seats available, unless Cinemark pulls the shows)

3d 59/110, 2nd show also blank - weird error = 59/110

Total sales 388/770

(+44 from Sunday with possible 9pm sales)

 

I'm not expecting the blank shows to have many presales b/c 3 of 4 missing ones are 11:30pm or later (the 9pm might have some already, so that could affect my next post)

 

Regal

Solo 6 showings (1 fan, 3 2d, 2 3d)

Fan event 150/175

2d 73/100, 52/175, 23/100 = 148/375

3d 59/100, 10/100 = 69/100

Total 367/650

(+209 from Sunday post, but more likely +75 or so since I missed the fan event, and I'm sure that was heavily sold then:)...

 

[filmlover]

My theater is booking Solo for 5 screens this weekend (one of which is in a 60-seater). Doesn't seem like that great of a sign tbh, usually when they book like that it means they know something.