The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[korrasami]

Looked through cinemas around my local area, and a large number of the showings for I2 aren't that full. Since I'm from Australia, I think the ticket sales will increase on the actual day the movie comes out (which is tomorrow). 

[WrathOfHan]

As expected, SuperFly is looking dead at my theater. The first show in 20 minutes has only sold 2 tickets, and there's only 1 other ticket for the day  

[Deep Wang]

Well, no idea about comps, but I2 was at 4m yesterday.  Seems alright for an animated movie?

[Nova]

12 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, no idea about comps, but I2 was at 4m yesterday.  Seems alright for an animated movie?

That's interesting. The one comp I'd have since it was a family film that hit all 4 quadrants and we are assuming I2 is gonna do the same was Beauty and the Beast. If I'm not mistaken I remember that being at $8M at some point in time? Maybe it was $7.2M. I just remember it being in that range. Or maybe I'm making this number up but I just remember the tracking thread went bonkers when you revealed it lol 

 

Having said that, I don't know if that's a good comp either as that wasn't an animated movie but $4M in presales at one theater chain is a little less than half of Dory's Thursday night number ($9.2M) so id assume that's a good start for I2. 

Edited June 13, 2018 by Nova

[Stewart]

16 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Well, no idea about comps, but I2 was at 4m yesterday.  Seems alright for an animated movie?

Solo had 6.2m 48 hours later, and that still did $84m with what should be significantly less walkups compared with I2.

 

Maybe this indicates double that? $168m OW? 🤷‍♂️

[The Wild Eric]

Superfly update

Superfly (3-Day)	36	852	4.23%
Superfly (5-Day)	125	1420	8.80%

 

Comps for Superfly's 3-Day:

277% of Marshall ($8.3M)

120% of Roman Israel ($5.3M)

10% of Proud Mary's 3-Day ($1M)

23% of Den of Thieves ($3.5M)

7% of Acrimony ($1.3M)

36% of Traffik ($1.4M)

8% of Breaking In ($1.5M)

97% of Hotel Artemis ($3.1M)

 

Considering my theater's area, this is not a good sign.

 

I'll look at Incredibles and Tag a little later, I just wanted to get this one in before the first showtime started today.

[Deep Wang]

38 minutes ago, Nova said:

That's interesting. The one comp I'd have since it was a family film that hit all 4 quadrants and we are assuming I2 is gonna do the same was Beauty and the Beast. If I'm not mistaken I remember that being at $8M at some point in time? Maybe it was $7.2M. I just remember it being in that range. Or maybe I'm making this number up but I just remember the tracking thread went bonkers when you revealed it lol 

 

Having said that, I don't know if that's a good comp either as that wasn't an animated movie but $4M in presales at one theater chain is a little less than half of Dory's Thursday night number ($9.2M) so id assume that's a good start for I2. 

 

I don't think BATB is a good comp.  There is a clear distinction between live action and animated in terms of openings.  

 

I honestly don't think many animated movies get to 1m much less 4m.   Dory is the only legit comp and that was so long ago, I don't remember what it did.

[Premium George]

6 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

 

I don't think BATB is a good comp.  There is a clear distinction between live action and animated in terms of openings.  

 

I honestly don't think many animated movies get to 1m much less 4m.   Dory is the only legit comp and that was so long ago, I don't remember what it did.

Any other recent animated movie? DM 3 was a sequel too.

[Deep Wang]

12 minutes ago, Premium George said:

Any other recent animated movie? DM 3 was a sequel too.

Coco 5pm day of previews 1m.

Emoji 5pm day of previews 400k.

 

Those are the only things I still have on my phone, lol. 

 

[Stewart]

3 minutes ago, Deep Wang said:

Coco 5pm day of previews 1m.

Emoji 5pm day of previews 400k.

 

Those are the only things I still have on my phone, lol. 

 

 

Emoji opened to 24.5m => I2 will open with $245m

Coco opened to 50m (3-day) => I2 will open with $200m (but Coco opened thanksgiving, soooo)

 

I2 over $200m OW confirmed 

[DAJK]

Was going to do a MT update, but there's nothing really to update. Incredibles is still in the low 30's, Oceans 8 is at 19 etc etc. 

 

Hoping I2 really picks up throughout the day, and that Tag shows up in the meantime. 

[The Wild Eric]

14 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

Incredibles 2	1892	4386	43.14%
Superfly	105	1420	7.39%
Tag	16	1294	1.24%

 

 

Incredibles 2

2069

4386

47.17%

Tag

21

1294

1.62%

 

Incredibles 2 seems like it got a weak jump, but considering I tracked this mid-afternoon and the previous one was tracked at around 11 PM/midnight, it's still doing fine.

 

Comps:

226% of Thor: Ragnarok ($278.1M)

147% of Justice League ($138.3M)

365% of Wonder ($100.5M)

579% of Coco's 3-Day ($294.4M)

284% of Coco's 5-Day ($207.4M)

1591% of Ferdinand ($213.3M)

51% of The Last Jedi ($112.8M)

1616% of Greatest Showman ($142.3M)

1352% of Paddington 2 ($148.8M)

610% of Peter Rabbit ($152.6M)

42% of Black Panther ($84.6M)

280% of Wrinkle in Time ($92.7M)

51% of Infinity War ($130.3M)

192% of Solo ($161.9M)

 

It's almost impossible to judge where Incredibles 2 will end up, solely because there's no film in the time I've done tracking this theater that lines up with it. The biggest animated film I have is Coco, which didn't do anything monstrous, and live-action films and animated films are different beasts when it comes to presales, especially when most of the ones on I2's level are PG-13 ones. And some of the live-action PG films I have severely overperformed (Wonder, Wrinkle), so that makes things even harder.

 

Regardless, Dory's hold on the animated record is looking weaker and weaker.

[aabattery]

Did a little digging and Dory had 500k a week before release.

[Brainbug]

Call me a lunatic, it think Incredibles is going to reach 180M on OW. And Fallen Kingdom wont fall under a 140M one. Some big weeks are ahead of us i think

[MovieMan89]

22 minutes ago, Brainbug said:

Call me a lunatic, it think Incredibles is going to reach 180M on OW. And Fallen Kingdom wont fall under a 140M one. Some big weeks are ahead of us i think

If I2 really does make that much, that bodes even worse for FK's OW. I2 still being over 100 in weekend 2 would mean 140 is probably the ceiling for FK. Could get ugly for it. 

[Cmasterclay]

Incredibles 2 second weekend > Jurassic World opening weekend. Pixar coming for that revenge for Inside Out!

[MovieMan89]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Incredibles 2 second weekend > Jurassic World opening weekend. Pixar coming for that revenge for Inside Out!

I'd say the meltdowns would be epic, but I think pretty much everyone here except @Brainbug would be pleased with that lol. 

[Brainbug]

25 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'd say the meltdowns would be epic, but I think pretty much everyone here except @Brainbug would be pleased with that lol. 

 

@scoobysaurus

@Krissykins

@That One Guy

@Jay Hollywood

[That One Girl]

27 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

I'd say the meltdowns would be epic, but I think pretty much everyone here except @Brainbug would be pleased with that lol. 

 

No.

[Brainbug]

Also, i will only have a meltdown if FK goes under 100M OW, because that would be just sad and awful. However, thats also pretty much impossible. I still stand by my point that Fallen Kingdom will open to 150-165M @MovieMan89. Quote me if im wrong, then ill eat my crow. Quote me too if im right, because then ill serve the crow to you