The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

29 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Adrift, Avengers: Infinity War, Deadpool 2, Hereditary, Hotel Artemis, and Solo: A Star Wars Story are gone.

 

Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom: 21 (19 2D/2 3D; XL, Biggest, Average x2, and Smallest x0.5)

 

Incredibles 2: 17 (Down 4 and lost 3D; XL, Biggest, Average, and Smallest x0.5)

Ocean's 8: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

SuperFly: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

Tag: 5 (Flat; Smallest)

 

One screen still hasn't been scheduled, but this is an absolute massacre for holdovers  

 

Auditorium sizes for reference:

  Reveal hidden contents

 

XL: 300 (two screens are this size)

Biggest: 130 (two screens are this size)

Average: 100 (four screens are this size; one has five extra seats)

Smallest: 47 (four screens are this size)

 

 

 

 

 

Wow...

[filmlover]

If Jurassic World really does see a ginormous fall (50%+ drop or more) from its predecessor (less than $325M), we're gonna be getting a very valuable lesson that the nostalgia card only really works for one movie. After that, you're left to your own devices.

Edited June 19, 2018 by filmlover

[WrathOfHan]

55 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Wow...

Gotti is getting that last screen  

[MovieMan89]

Yeah, that tracking is not a good sign. Again, sticking to 120 tops for FK. 

[The Wild Eric]

14 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Gotti is getting that last screen  

Gotta fight the trolls with their keyboards 

[That One Girl]

*tracking is saying 135M-150M*

 

BOT: "Wow, horrible sign for Jurassic World, flop incoming."

[ZeeSoh]

1 minute ago, That One Guy said:

*tracking is saying 135M-150M*

 

BOT: "Wow, horrible sign for Jurassic World, flop incoming."

People here were calling AoU’s OW (2nd highest at that point and a mere 7.7% drop from Avengers) disappointing. It’s not really surprising then that a possible 35% drop (135m OW) is being called that. 

[Rebeccas]

3 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

*tracking is saying 135M-150M*

 

BOT: "Wow, horrible sign for Jurassic World, flop incoming."

I think people are just reacting to the fact that it’s trending down? Not the number itself.

[Nova]

People aren’t just looking at JW2 tracking and claiming it’s a bad sign lol 

 

When Solo was tracking that much all signs indicated it wasn’t sniffing it. 

When Deadpool 2 was tracking that much, all signs indicated it was gonna be on the lower end of its tracking (my $150M prediction was wishful predictions) but most folks on here had it in the $130M range. 

When Incredibles 2 was tracking that much, all signs indicated that it was breaking out and would top its tracking. 

 

People talking about JW2 aren’t just looking at its tracking. They’re taking account it’s presales (whether it’s through the Fandango tracking or at indivual theaters) and it’s drops in other European markets to point out that things aren’t looking all that great for JW to be the breakout that some folks on here keep insisting it will be. That doesn’t mean JW is gonna bomb domestically. It just means those $150M+ predictions aren’t looking all that hot and that the members on this forum who have been tracking it’s presales are looking to be right in predicting a possible 35% drop on OW from JW. We could be wrong (as we’ve been wrong in the past) but the last several blockbusters this forum has done well in predicting how the film would open. The only one that was really really missed was Solo and that’s because even the most pessimistic members on this forum didn’t think it would open that low. 

Edited June 19, 2018 by Nova

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

People here were calling AoU’s OW (2nd highest at that point and a mere 7.7% drop from Avengers) disappointing. It’s not really surprising then that a possible 35% drop (135m OW) is being called that. 

 

4 minutes ago, Rebeccas said:

I think people are just reacting to the fact that it’s trending down? Not the number itself.

 

Everyone who is reacting to the tracking numbers are bringing up Solo's tracking numbers as if they mean anything.  One person pretty much said "bad sign, anyway this'll open to 120M" and completely ignored it for no other reason than self-validation I assume.

 

It's quite clear that many are hoping this trends far downward and opens with sub-100M. 

[Mojoguy]

It's quite clear that many are hoping this trends far downward and opens with sub-100M.

Not hoping, many just are preparing themselves in case JW2 turns out to be into another epic bomb like Solo.

People don't like being surprised twice in a row.

Edited June 19, 2018 by Mojoguy

[Blaze Heatnix]

For the sake of this forum, I really hope Jurassic World 2 opens with more than 100 million. 

 

I can't imagine the meltdowns if the worst happens and this thing gets a sub 100 million. 

[Stewart]

4 minutes ago, Blaze Heatnix said:

For the sake of this forum, I really hope Jurassic World 2 opens with more than 100 million. 

 

I can't imagine the meltdowns if the worst happens and this thing gets a sub 100 million. 

The good news is, the lower JW2 goes, the higher I2 is likely to go.

 

im thinking I2 stays #1 if JW2 goes sub 100

[Nova]

JW2 is not going to open under $100M. That’s not happening. It’s presales indicate an opening over $100M. How much over is the question. 

[Mojoguy]

JW2 is not going to open under $100M. That’s not happening. It’s presales indicate an opening over $100M. How much over is the question.

Weren't people saying that about Solo as well?

[Nova]

4 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Weren't people saying that about Solo as well?

Yea but Solo’s presales pretty much stagnated whereas JW2 presales hasn’t. So I can’t imagine a situation where JW2 opens under $100M. 

[Stewart]

8 minutes ago, Mojoguy said:

Weren't people saying that about Solo as well?

From the data points we have, Solo was a typically Star Wars movie. Big presales to start then deflated afterwards and not walkup friendly.

 

Jurassic World is the only data point we have for JW2 and that was mega walkup friendly, now of course it's not going to be as walkup as JW1, but JW2 can perform significantly below Solo in presales and still come out on top.

[DAJK]

1 hour ago, filmlover said:

If Jurassic World really does see a ginormous fall (50%+ drop or more) from its predecessor (less than $325M), we're gonna be getting a very valuable lesson that the nostalgia card only really works for one movie. After that, you're left to your own devices.

I agree. Star Wars in a way extended that to 3 in its own case, but we'll see how IX can re-bound. I still think the numbers for that series though have more to do than just nostalgia. 

 

TS4 will further show this, and so have the live-action Disney adaptations. Nostalgia didn't help Alice 2 did it...

[narniadis]

I fail to see how all the major predictors coalescing around the same number thats been stated for weeks is the film being downgraded in tracking???? Unless I missed some update Deadline and BO.Com have always had it around 130m at least on the low end. 

[Nova]

30 minutes ago, narniadis said:

I fail to see how all the major predictors coalescing around the same number thats been stated for weeks is the film being downgraded in tracking???? Unless I missed some update Deadline and BO.Com have always had it around 130m at least on the low end. 

Last week box office pro actually brought it down to $125M for their low end