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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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8 hours ago, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

94

11388

13377

14.87%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:    112 

 

.2432x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 9 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6066x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 9 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6494x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 9 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.5628x as many tickets sold as Solo 9 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1206x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 9 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

840

1399

39.96%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      20

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-9 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

88

10548

11978

11.94%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      92

 

FB is slowly, but steadily gaining ground on most of them and is holding pace with JW2, which was more of a backloaded sell as well. So far, so good. Could be looking way worse tbh. 

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1 hour ago, Poseidon said:

FB is slowly, but steadily gaining ground on most of them and is holding pace with JW2, which was more of a backloaded sell as well. So far, so good. Could be looking way worse tbh. 

Right now FB2 is seeing something akin to the review/premeire bump when movies first get their initial reaction on social media and elsewhere.

 

The interesting thing here is though, that it's from fan screenings and perhaps other limited showings (haven't fully kept up on EXACTLY what is going on).  As I understand it, the review embargo is lifting soon, and the world premiere is tomorrow.  So we'll see if this keeps up and/or how the ticket pace is impacted when more discussion comes out about the film.

 

On the other hand, as @TalismanRing will rightfully remind us, the presale buying pattern for a Harry Potter themed movie is different from a CBM one.  So how well it does in the immediate days leading before release remains to be seen.

 

Still, as you say, it does seem to be doing better than it might have. How much that actually matters when all is said and done is still an open question.

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20 minutes ago, Porthos said:

 

On the other hand, as @TalismanRing will rightfully remind us, the presale buying pattern for a Harry Potter themed movie is different from a CBM one.  So how well it does in the immediate days leading before release remains to be seen.

FB isn't Harry Potter, you can only compare FB2 to the first one (but a bit more frontloaded probably).

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12 hours ago, TalismanRing said:
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday  
           
A Wrinke In Time   4,864   15,601  
A Quiet Place 2,177 4,003 10,665    
Blockers  504 1,106 2,931    
Rampage 705 1,508 4,109    
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133    
Super Troopers 2,825 3,447 6,881    
I Feel Pretty 871 1,610 4,423    
Avengers: Infinity War 49,836 54,892 68,826 206,000  
Overboard 84 409 1,044    
Breaking In 727 1204 2,899    
Life Of The Party 587 1,310 3,010    
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212    
Show Dogs 6 128 369    
Book Club 836 1,599 3,283    
SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533    
Action Point  17 48 197    
Upgrade  9 119 522    
Adrift 63 308 1,268    
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114    
Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181    
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520    
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337    
Tag 314 660 1,448    
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266    
Sicario 2 788 1282 3,403    
Uncle Drew 274 473 1,201    
Antman & The Wasp  6,613 5,990 11,108    
Purge (Wed) 2,885 8,308      
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754  
Skyscraper 586 1,019 2,868 7,134  
Mamma Mia 2 4,427 5,099 12,117 17,226  
Equalizer 1,418 2,297 6,073 11,875  
Unfriended   71 240 975  
MI6   *3328 13,575 27,261  
Teen Titans   *462 2,125 4,526  
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509  
The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222  
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777  
Eighth Grade 494 508 720 936  
Death of A Nation 148 194 375 1,239  
The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202  
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737  
BlackkKlansman  432 682 1,934 5,017  
Dog Days (Wed) 115 631 1,536 1,212  
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed) 3,651 5,742 20,173 20,102  
Alpha 181 283 943 2,069  
Mile 22 282 519 1,833 5,200  
Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602  
A.X.L. 32 *60 310 911  
Kin 21 141 263 741  
Operation Finale (Wed) 415 2,083 4,879 3,915  
Searching 303 588 1,194 2,862  
The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 28,881  
Peppermint  286 863 2,508 4,441  
God Bless The Broken Road 6 33 152 282  
Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063  
A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381  
White Boy Rick 136 567 1,458 4,587  
Unbroken 2 88 180 360 659  
House With Clocks 897 1469 3607 8,074  
Fahrenheit 11/9 164 281 713 1,715  
Life Itself 79 162 394 953  
Assassination Nation   36 94 382  
Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566    
Small Foot 734 1,261 2,448    
Hellfest 195 304 661    
Little Women   65 134    
Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569  
A Star Is Born 9,115 11,383 22,641 21,501  
First Man 654 909 3,610 7,586  
Goosebumps 2 300 631 1,733 3,615  
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350  
Halloween 9,563 12,980 21,600 36,126  
The Hate U Give (2k expansion) 1,026 1,542 1,559 2,055  
Hunter Killer 91 368 1,062 2,726  
Indivisible 33 89 204 440  
Bohemian Rhapsody 7,255 9,026 12,546 26,476  
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518  
Nobody's Fool 436 900 1,719 4,437  
Grinch 3,580 4,860      
Girl In The Spider's Web 286 691      
Overlord 299 605      
*4pm-12am          
           
Nov 16th          
Fantastic Beasts 2 2,854 2,577      
Widows 29 31      
Instant Family 23 37      
           
Nov 21st          
Creed II 218 220      
Ralph 2 1,449 680      

I'm always curious how strong the correlations are between these numbers and the actual weekend numbers. Grinch's sales suggest 50M should definitely happen IMO, it's almost twice Hotel Transylvania, but also neck-and-neck with Wrinkle in Time. 

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3 hours ago, Porthos said:

Right now FB2 is seeing something akin to the review/premeire bump when movies first get their initial reaction on social media and elsewhere.

 

The interesting thing here is though, that it's from fan screenings and perhaps other limited showings (haven't fully kept up on EXACTLY what is going on).  As I understand it, the review embargo is lifting soon, and the world premiere is tomorrow.  So we'll see if this keeps up and/or how the ticket pace is impacted when more discussion comes out about the film.

 

On the other hand, as @TalismanRing will rightfully remind us, the presale buying pattern for a Harry Potter themed movie is different from a CBM one.  So how well it does in the immediate days leading before release remains to be seen.

 

Still, as you say, it does seem to be doing better than it might have. How much that actually matters when all is said and done is still an open question.

OTOH, the first movie did not perform like a Harry Potter film in any sort of way. It was absolutely backloaded, there was no fan rush.  I admit I don't know what it was doing on presales though.

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54 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

OTOH, the first movie did not perform like a Harry Potter film in any sort of way. It was absolutely backloaded, there was no fan rush.  I admit I don't know what it was doing on presales though.

Han Solo had smaller previews at $14.1m than any recent SW  and it was also significantly less front loaded over the weekend with it's 7.3 internal multi (even accounting for the MD boost). 

 

But it still had a stronger % of pre-buy than a comparable CBM let alone a late buy and walk up movie like JW2  ($15.3m in previews and a 9.7 internal multi)
 

FB had much lower preview numbers than any HP and a bigger internal multi but at 8.5 it had the same (or close) multi as CBM like Thor:R and GOTG2 which had far bigger previews ($14.5 & $17m).  The larger the preview usually the smaller the w/e internal.

 

Edited by TalismanRing
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The other minor complication around the margins for FB2 is that Regal looks to be enacting matinee pricing for the non-PLF 5pm shows, much like it did for Venom.  At least it is locally.  Even seen one for as late a showing as 5:40pm.  

 

Now Cinemark, again at least locally, isn't doing this.  And I don't have an AMC locally.  But if Regal is doing this nationwide, that will play a bit with the total.  On the one hand, it's less revenue per ticket.  On the other hand, it might entice people to go to a showing they might not otherwise go to.  On the third hand, it might just shift from a more expensive 6pm ticket to a cheaper 5pm one.

 

As it stands, the 5pm to 6pm showings aren't nearly as popular as the ones starting later.  Not as bad as a 2D -> 3D dropoff, but still noticeable.

 

Might start tracking the matinee showings on my spreadsheet (already track 2D/3D) if I think it's actually worth it.

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4 hours ago, filmnerdjamie said:

My feeling is Crimes of Grindelwald will be the lowest grosser (domestically) in the franchise. 

 

I'm thinking just under 200 mil. But it's Thanksgiving so who knows. 

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The box office was pretty bad when Interstellar and Big Hero 6 opened following the 2014 depressing election where the Republicans impossibly took over.

Mon-Wed ratios were normal indicating no election hangover, but Thursday was not good and Interstellar did not break out.

There could be a similar situation this year with Wednesday being good, but Thursday previews slowly depreciating from Wednesday #1, and an overall subpar weekend.

Fantastic Beasts in 2016 opened to disappointing #s after Trump won, still too early to tell where November will land this time.

*Gone Girl did increase on Thursday though

Rank* Title Monday
11/3
Tuesday
11/4
Wednesday
11/5
Thursday
11/6
1 FURY (2014)
Sony / Columbia

3,313
$835,167

-66.7% / $252
$60,992,074 / 18
$1,103,445

+32.1% / $333
$62,095,519 / 19
$852,441

-22.7% / $257
$62,947,960 / 20
$820,269

-3.8% / $248
$63,768,229 / 21
2 INTERSTELLAR
Paramount

249

N/A

N/A
$1,350,209

-- / $5,423
$1,350,209 / 1
$801,244

-40.7% / $3,218
$2,151,453 / 2
3 NIGHTCRAWLER
Open Road Films

2,766
$950,530

-63% / $344
$11,391,530 / 4
$1,235,750

+30% / $447
$12,627,280 / 5
$865,025

-30% / $313
$13,492,305 / 6
$752,572

-13% / $272
$14,244,877 / 7
4 GONE GIRL
Fox

2,834
$696,332

-68.4% / $246
$136,978,838 / 32
$892,670

+28.2% / $315
$137,871,508 / 33
$723,567

-18.9% / $255
$138,595,075 / 34
$733,347

+1.4% / $259
$139,328,422 / 35
5 JOHN WICK
Lionsgate/Summit

2,589
$767,466

-66.7% / $296
$28,300,636 / 11
$996,790

+29.9% / $385
$29,297,426 / 12
$738,984

-25.9% / $285
$30,036,410 / 13
$633,249

-14.3% / $245
$30,669,659 / 14
6 ST. VINCENT
Weinstein Company

2,552
$567,907

-69.1% / $223
$19,569,234 / 25
$850,686

+49.8% / $333
$20,419,920 / 26
$601,996

-29.2% / $236
$21,021,916 / 27
$627,115

+4.2% / $246
$21,649,031 / 28
7 OUIJA
Universal

2,899
$766,715

-66.7% / $264
$35,570,665 / 11
$871,120

+13.6% / $300
$36,441,785 / 12
$491,480

-43.6% / $170
$36,933,265 / 13
$521,820

+6.2% / $180
$37,455,085 / 14
8 ALEXANDER AND THE TERRIBLE, HORRIBLE, NO GOOD, VERY BAD DAY
Buena Vista

2,896
$426,144

-79.3% / $147
$54,152,435 / 25
$943,849

+121.5% / $326
$55,096,284 / 26
$257,760

-72.7% / $89
$55,354,044 / 27
$359,286

+39.4% / $124
$55,713,330 / 28
9 THE BOOK OF LIFE (2014)
Fox

2,794
$464,895

-84.3% / $166
$40,895,487 / 18
$864,904

+86% / $310
$41,760,391 / 19
$335,504

-61.2% / $120
$42,095,895 / 20
$319,030

-4.9% / $114
$42,414,925 / 21
10 THE JUDGE
Warner Bros.

1,942
$274,017

-68.4% / $141
$39,787,945 / 25
$401,466

+46.5% / $207
$40,189,411 / 26
$312,709

-22.1% / $161
$40,502,120 / 27
$307,125

-1.8% / $158
$40,809,245 / 28
11 THE BEST OF ME
Relativity

2,327
$283,034

-63.7% / $122
$22,177,717 / 18
$379,667

+34.1% / $163
$22,557,384 / 19
$250,785

-33.9% / $108
$22,808,169 / 20
$280,172

+11.7% / $120
$23,088,341 / 21
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Ouija looks to have shit a brick on Wednesday after the Tuesday/8 election

Rank* Title Monday
11/7
Tuesday
11/8
Wednesday
11/9
Thursday
11/10
1 DOCTOR STRANGE
Buena Vista

3,882
$6,209,922

-70.6% / $1,600
$91,268,233 / 4
$7,658,060

+23.3% / $1,973
$98,926,293 / 5
$5,061,877

-33.9% / $1,304
$103,988,170 / 6
$5,993,999

+18.4% / $1,544
$109,982,169 / 7
2 TROLLS
Fox

4,060
$2,501,324

-82.2% / $616
$49,082,466 / 4
$5,322,216

+112.8% / $1,311
$54,404,682 / 5
$1,738,586

-67.3% / $428
$56,143,268 / 6
$2,821,047

+62.3% / $695
$58,964,315 / 7
3 HACKSAW RIDGE
Lionsgate

2,886
$1,451,498

-63.3% / $503
$16,642,256 / 4
$1,918,052

+32.1% / $665
$18,560,308 / 5
$1,346,938

-29.8% / $467
$19,907,246 / 6
$1,582,075

+17.5% / $548
$21,489,321 / 7
4 THE ACCOUNTANT
Warner Bros.

2,688
$511,247

-65.7% / $190
$71,291,744 / 25
$670,105

+31.1% / $249
$71,961,849 / 26
$573,753

-14.4% / $213
$72,535,602 / 27
$620,153

+8.1% / $231
$73,155,755 / 28
5 INFERNO
Sony / Columbia

3,576
$501,037

-67.6% / $140
$26,474,954 / 11
$745,140

+48.7% / $208
$27,220,094 / 12
$542,827

-27.2% / $152
$27,762,921 / 13
$569,094

+4.8% / $159
$28,332,015 / 14
6 JACK REACHER: NEVER GO BACK
Paramount

3,079
$470,375

-65.5% / $153
$49,583,648 / 18
$684,531

+45.5% / $222
$50,268,179 / 19
$470,793

-31.2% / $153
$50,738,972 / 20
$522,739

+11% / $170
$51,261,711 / 21
7 BOO! A MADEA HALLOWEEN
Lionsgate

2,234
$495,127

-74% / $222
$65,416,979 / 18
$696,961

+40.8% / $312
$66,113,940 / 19
$322,373

-53.7% / $144
$66,436,313 / 20
$421,766

+30.8% / $189
$66,858,079 / 21
8 THE GIRL ON THE TRAIN (2016)
Universal

1,572
$235,640

-63.2% / $150
$70,883,580 / 32
$288,335

+22.4% / $183
$71,171,915 / 33
$257,975

-10.5% / $164
$71,429,890 / 34
$273,240

+5.9% / $174
$71,703,130 / 35
9 OUIJA: ORIGIN OF EVIL
Universal

2,380
$335,550

-62.2% / $141
$31,594,565 / 18
$375,120

+11.8% / $158
$31,969,685 / 19
$232,985

-37.9% / $98
$32,202,670 / 20
$307,420

+31.9% / $129
$32,510,090 / 21
10 MISS PEREGRINE'S HOME FOR PECULIAR CHILDREN
Fox

1,710
$134,009

-76.3% / $78
$83,418,627 / 39
$250,556

+87% / $147
$83,669,183 / 40
$121,770

-51.4% / $71
$83,790,953 / 41
$156,154

+28.2% / $91
$83,947,107 / 42
11 MOONLIGHT (2016)
A24

83
$112,856

-66.1% / $1,360
$3,102,829 / 18
$78,746

-30.2% / $949
$3,181,575 / 19
$108,142

+37.3% / $1,303
$3,289,717 / 20
$127,943

+18.3% / $1,541
$3,417,660 / 21
12 KEEPING UP WITH THE JONESES
Fox

1,064
$90,677

-59.7% / $85
$13,398,215 / 18
$126,037

+39% / $118
$13,524,252 / 19
$93,966

-25.4% / $88
$13,618,218 / 20
$108,360

+15.3% / $102
$13,726,578 / 21
- DEEPWATER HORIZON
Lionsgate/Summit

783
$62,570

-65.6% / $80
$59,981,792 / 39
$77,293

+23.5% / $99
$60,059,085 / 40
$63,537

-17.8% / $81
$60,122,622 / 41
$67,665

+6.5% / $86
$60,190,287 / 42
- SULLY
Warner Bros.

454
$44,837

-62.8% / $99
$123,331,377 / 60
$55,850

+24.6% / $123
$123,387,227 / 61
$50,096

-10.3% / $110
$123,437,323 / 62
$47,736

-4.7% / $105
$123,485,059 / 63
- STORKS
Warner Bros.

1,155
$61,170

-81% / $53
$70,029,232 / 46
$134,103

+119.2% / $116
$70,163,335 / 47
$45,827

-65.8% / $40
$70,209,162 / 48
$66,572

+45.3% / $58
$70,275,734 / 49
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