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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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On 11/7/2018 at 6:45 PM, tonytr87 said:

 

I'm thinking just under 200 mil. But it's Thanksgiving so who knows. 

Yeah I feel like this struggles to $200M... and Depp will get all the blame (which would and wouldn't be accurate - the marketing has offered no hook in addition to Depp's longtime BO poisonous streak).

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25 minutes ago, filmnerdjamie said:

Yeah I feel like this struggles to $200M... and Depp will get all the blame (which would and wouldn't be accurate - the marketing has offered no hook in addition to Depp's longtime BO poisonous streak).

That would be lower than or right around what ”Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” did in its full week, ($204M) DOM-wise. :jeb!:

 

To be fair, ”Murder on the Orient Express”, last year had Johnny Depp in it. And that was a big hit with $352M WW, for a $55M budget, in spite of him and the mixed reception.

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1 hour ago, MrFanaticGuy34 said:

That would be lower than or right around what ”Jurassic World: Fallen Kingdom” did in its full week, ($204M) DOM-wise. :jeb!:

 

To be fair, ”Murder on the Orient Express”, last year had Johnny Depp in it. And that was a big hit with $352M WW, for a $55M budget, in spite of him and the mixed reception.

People wanted to see him get murdered tbh

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Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
         
A Wrinke In Time   4,864   15,601
A Quiet Place 2,177 4,003 10,665  
Blockers  504 1,106 2,931  
Rampage 705 1,508 4,109  
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Super Troopers 2,825 3,447 6,881  
I Feel Pretty 871 1,610 4,423  
Avengers: Infinity War 49,836 54,892 68,826 206,000
Overboard 84 409 1,044  
Breaking In 727 1204 2,899  
Life Of The Party 587 1,310 3,010  
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212  
Show Dogs 6 128 369  
Book Club 836 1,599 3,283  
SW: Solo 13,688 15,855 28,533  
Action Point  17 48 197  
Upgrade  9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  
Hereditary 659 1,178 3,181  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Incredibles 2 20,872 23,430 39,337  
Tag 314 660 1,448  
Jurassic World 2 9,310 12,761 23,266  
Sicario 2 788 1282 3,403  
Uncle Drew 274 473 1,201  
Antman & The Wasp  6,613 5,990 11,108  
Purge (Wed) 2,885 8,308    
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754
Skyscraper 586 1,019 2,868 7,134
Mamma Mia 2 4,427 5,099 12,117 17,226
Equalizer 1,418 2,297 6,073 11,875
Unfriended   71 240 975
MI6   *3328 13,575 27,261
Teen Titans   *462 2,125 4,526
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me 234 542 1,561 4,222
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777
Eighth Grade 494 508 720 936
Death of A Nation 148 194 375 1,239
The Meg 1,539 2,944 6,723 16,202
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
BlackkKlansman  432 682 1,934 5,017
Dog Days (Wed) 115 631 1,536 1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed) 3,651 5,742 20,173 20,102
Alpha 181 283 943 2,069
Mile 22 282 519 1,833 5,200
Happytime Murders 382 *488 1,954 5,602
A.X.L. 32 *60 310 911
Kin 21 141 263 741
Operation Finale (Wed) 415 2,083 4,879 3,915
Searching 303 588 1,194 2,862
The Nun 2,082 5,938 13,806 28,881
Peppermint  286 863 2,508 4,441
God Bless The Broken Road 6 33 152 282
Predator 1,295 2,476 4,545 13,063
A Simple Favor 564 2,126 4,410 10,381
White Boy Rick 136 567 1,458 4,587
Unbroken 2 88 180 360 659
House With Clocks 897 1469 3607 8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9 164 281 713 1,715
Life Itself 79 162 394 953
Assassination Nation   36 94 382
Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566  
Small Foot 734 1,261 2,448  
Hellfest 195 304 661  
Little Women   65 134  
Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569
A Star Is Born 9,115 11,383 22,641 21,501
First Man 654 909 3,610 7,586
Goosebumps 2 300 631 1,733 3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350
Halloween 9,563 12,980 21,600 36,126
The Hate U Give (2k expansion) 1,026 1,542 1,559 2,055
Hunter Killer 91 368 1,062 2,726
Indivisible 33 89 204 440
Bohemian Rhapsody 7,255 9,026 12,546 26,476
The Nutcracker & the Four Realms 1,659 1,949 2,567 5,518
Nobody's Fool 436 900 1,719 4,437
Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046
Girl In The Spider's Web 286 691 1,735 3,554
Overlord 299 605 1,599 4,522
*4pm-12am        
         
Nov 16th        
Fantastic Beasts 2 2,854 2,577 3,505 3,130
Widows 29 31 66 70
Instant Family 23 37 35 60
         
Nov 21st        
Creed II 218 220 258 273
Ralph 2 1,449 680 604 467
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Movie/Day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
         
The Grinch 437 461 535 646
Spider's Web 29 37 31 33
Overlord 28 27 19 3

 

Look what the grinch was selling last week and is on way to clear 60M .

You going to tell me that FB2 going to miss 80M next weekend. 

Give me a break 

 

 

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9 minutes ago, Brinatico said:
Movie/Day Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday
         
The Grinch 437 461 535 646
Spider's Web 29 37 31 33
Overlord 28 27 19 3

 

Look what the grinch was selling last week and is on way to clear 60M .

You going to tell me that FB2 going to miss 80M next weekend. 

Give me a break 

 

 

Well, two completely different audiences 

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Nation   36 94 382
Night School 1,045 1,756 3,566  
Small Foot 734 1,261 2,448  
Hell Fest 195 304 661  
Little Women   65 134  
*4pm-12am        
         
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
October 5th        
Venom 1,892 2,042 2,685  
A Star Is Born 1,064 1,326

1,734

       

 

This is venom 1 week before too.

And the other point is was selling less the days before 

   

 

 
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1 hour ago, Brinatico said:

And was the most anticipated movie of the month by much.

All I can say is that FB2 going to pull a good BO, no just a normal one

Well, it wasn't the most anticipated movie "by much" considering Halloween was 3M away from beating its OW.

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5 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Well, it wasn't the most anticipated movie "by much" considering Halloween was 3M away from beating its OW.

When I quote "most anticipated movie of the month " was referred to FB2 on fandango most anticipated list on the month of November 

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So, um, doing the FB2 seat report.

 

And.

 

Huh.

 

Well, let's say that either both Fandango AND the Cinemark websites are tweaking out on me (POSSIBLE!!!).  

 

OOOORRRR.

A local group of Harry Potter fans went nutty and nearly bought out an entire showing tonight. :ohmygod:

 

Well, 90 some off seats of a showing, at least.

 

...

 

Honestly, I just think it's a computer glitch on Cinemark's end (which is then being propagated to Fandango), as every last seat except for all of the front row and most of the handicap spots are gone*.  But this IS Harry Potter fandom, so if any non-Star Wars fandom would group buy nearly an entire showing, it's this one.

 

* Though the fact that most of the handicap spots are still there might mean it's legit... 

 

Anywho, I can't second guess the ticket sales as I verified it on the local page for Century Arden.  On the other hand, if they suddenly show up tomorrow or a later day as open seats, I'll go back and manually adjust the seat total I'll announce in about 30 to 40 minutes or so. :)

Edited by Porthos
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10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So, um, doing the FB2 seat report.

 

And.

 

Huh.

 

Well, let's say that either both Fandango AND the Cinemark websites are tweaking out on me (POSSIBLE!!!).  

 

OOOORRRR.

A local group of Harry Potter fans went nutty and nearly bought out an entire showing tonight. :ohmygod:

 

Well, 90 some off seats of a showing, at least.

 

...

 

Honestly, I just think it's a computer glitch on Cinemark's end (which is then being propagated to Fandango), as every last seat except for all of the front row and most of the handicap spots are gone*.  But this IS Harry Potter fandom, so if any non-Star Wars fandom would group buy nearly an entire showing, it's this one.

 

* Though the fact that most of the handicap spots are still there might mean it's legit... 

 

Anywho, I can't second guess the ticket sales as I verified it on the local page for Century Arden.  On the other hand, if they suddenly show up tomorrow or a later day as open seats, I'll go back and manually adjust the seat total I'll announce in about 30 to 40 minutes or so. :)

I feel all the shout-outs and connections to the HP movies are going payoff in the opening weekend. It's gonna surprise and probably beat FB1's 74 ow. (The trick is to have these shout-outs without forcing the story into incoherence and we will know soon if the audience feels that way.)

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Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

98

10928

13377

18.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    4 (all non reserved seating)

Total Seats Sold Today:          237 

 

.2718x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 6 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6418x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 6 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6871x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 6 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.6396x as many tickets sold as Solo 6 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1740x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 6 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

772

1399

44.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      41

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

92

10156

11978

13.57%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              4 (all non reserved seating)

Total Seats Sold Today:                    196

 

=========

 

T-6 Comps for other movies:

 

Black Panther:    184 tickets sold that day. 50.20% of all seats sold.

Infinity War:       265 tickets sold that day. 67.82% of all seats sold.

Deadpool 2:       230 tickets sold that day. 26.46% of all seats sold.

Solo:                    82 tickets sold that day. 37.74% of all seats sold.

Fallen Kingdom:   95 tickets sold that day. 18.52% of all seats sold.

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46 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Well, let's say that either both Fandango AND the Cinemark websites are tweaking out on me (POSSIBLE!!!).  

 

OOOORRRR.

A local group of Harry Potter fans went nutty and nearly bought out an entire showing tonight. :ohmygod:

 

Well, 90 some off seats of a showing, at least.

8 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

98

10928

13377

18.31%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    4 (all non reserved seating)

Total Seats Sold Today:          237 

 

T-6 Comps for other movies:

 

Black Panther:    184 tickets sold that day. 50.20% of all seats sold.

Infinity War:       265 tickets sold that day. 67.82% of all seats sold.

Deadpool 2:       230 tickets sold that day. 26.46% of all seats sold.

Solo:                    82 tickets sold that day. 37.74% of all seats sold.

Fallen Kingdom:   95 tickets sold that day. 18.52% of all seats sold.

So, the difference in that showtime that I talk about in my first quoted post between tonight and yesterday is 94 seats. Let's say it's a glitch and there should be about 4 to 10 seats sold at that showing in the last 24 hours (it's at the best theater in town at a good showing).  

 

Even adjusting downward to 'only' 147 tickets sold (94 - 4 = 90 tickets not sold.  237 - 90 = 147 'really' sold, approx), which STILL is showing a fair amount of strength relative to both Solo and JW2.

 

Now this is the next full day after the world premiere.  So, that could just be the review/premiere bump.  But even so, it's a decent one, considering the reviews.

 

And if that group sale IS legit?  Well, I'm not worried about it throwing off my metric as 80 some odd seats out of 13000+ isn't much at all.  And, 'sides, picking up the very rare mega group sale IS a sign in and of itself of performance, as I doubt Sacramento is the only place this might happen.  

Edited by Porthos
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49 minutes ago, Porthos said:

So, the difference in that showtime that I talk about in my first quoted post between tonight and yesterday is 94 seats. Let's say it's a glitch and there should be about 4 to 10 seats sold at that showing in the last 24 hours (it's at the best theater in town at a good showing).  

 

Even adjusting downward to 'only' 147 tickets sold (94 - 4 = 90 tickets not sold.  237 - 90 = 147 'really' sold, approx), which STILL is showing a fair amount of strength relative to both Solo and JW2.

 

Now this is the next full day after the world premiere.  So, that could just be the review/premiere bump.  But even so, it's a decent one, considering the reviews.

 

And if that group sale IS legit?  Well, I'm not worried about it throwing off my metric as 80 some odd seats out of 13000+ isn't much at all.  And, 'sides, picking up the very rare mega group sale IS a sign in and of itself of performance, as I doubt Sacramento is the only place this might happen.  

Love me some good news in the morning. Thanks for all your hard work @Porthos

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Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

98

10837

13377

18.99%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      91 

 

.2746x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 5 days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6347x as many tickets sold as Black Panther 5 days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6808x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 5 days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.6483x as many tickets sold as Solo 5 days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1493x as many tickets sold as JW:FK 5 days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-5 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

6

763

1399

45.46%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                        9

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-6 Days and counting:

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

0

92

10074

11978

15.90%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      82

 

=========

 

T-5 Comps for other movies:

 

Black Panther:    186 tickets sold that day. 51.91% of all seats sold.

Infinity War:       242 tickets sold that day. 69.25% of all seats sold.

Deadpool 2:       167 tickets sold that day. 27.70% of all seats sold.

Solo:                    89 tickets sold that day. 38.62% of all seats sold.

Fallen Kingdom: 124 tickets sold that day. 19.62% of all seats sold.

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14 hours ago, rugamug72 said:

Are the Tuesday showings affecting the Thursday ones here? Seems a tad low. Though a bunch of people are talking about sell outs on Reddit and Twitter 

Well, I mean, yes and no.  If there weren't any Tuesday shows and the Thur number was all that was there, FB2 would be looking at a pretty catastrophic preview number.  But I would guess that 95, if not 100 percent of the folks who bought a Tuesday ticket would have bought a Thursday one instead.  There might be a few edge cases for folks who can make a Tuesday showing for whatever reason but not a Thursday one (work, other commitments).  But I think in this case the vast majority of Tuesday tickets would be going to Thur.  

 

It's really just WB squeezing in 6 extra premium time shows.

 

Now, the Tues number is being deflated a bit due to it being at a couple of theaters that normally don't fill out as much.

 

Here is the Tuesday breakdown in full:

Century Arden:        106/260 left   59.23% full

Regal Natomas:       177/315 left   43.81% full

Century Blue Oaks:     27/93 left    70.97% full

Century Doco:         104/205 left   49.27% full

Century Laguna:        83/157 left   47.13% full

Century Roseville:    266/369 left   27.91% full

 

That number for Century Roseville is dragging down the Tue ratio quite a bit.  Cent Arden is a little low for the theater, but it's basically at the front four rows.  Tiny bit surprised there isn't more love at Cent Laguna, but not terribly so.  Everyone else is more or less in line with expectations.

 

The bigger thing that seems to be depressing the ratio of available seats on Thur is the resistance to purchasing tickets in the 5pm to 6pm window.  Folks just do not want to purchase tickets then and it's showing everywhere, all across the board.  It's not that there are no sales in that window.  But folks would clearly prefer to see FB2 later on in the night (but not TOO late, as most shows past 9pm are as dead as a doornail right now)

 

In other words, FB2 might have the same number of showings as other films I've tracked this far out, but other movies had their showings squeezed in a more desirable window for purchasing.  But here it's a bit more spread out where there are showings that aren't getting much love.

 

But make no mistake, that isn't a huge factor.  Even if this was in a more 'traditional' 7pm to midnight/1am window, with the fan event being at 6pm (instead of 7pm on Tues), I doubt the overall ticket sales would be that different.  MIGHT have been a higher ratio, if there were less showings.  But probably not all that much difference when all is said and done.

Edited by Porthos
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https://deadline.com/2018/11/domestic-box-office-10-billion-record-1202499830/

 

By the end of today, the domestic box office per ComScore will have hit the $10 billion mark, doing so in record time: Ten months and 11 days.

 

Given how U.S./Canada ticket sales have been clicking ahead of last year at the same point in time by 10%, it’s clear we’re headed for a fourth year that will cross $11 billion. 2016 repped a banner year with $11.4 billion and so far 2018 is pacing 5.6% ahead of that Jan.-Nov. 11 period ($9.5 billion).

 

 

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