The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Webslinger]

I feel like an underperformance for Fantastic Beasts is coming. I saw an ad on the NFL pre-game show this morning that had Jude Law and Eddie Redmayne introducing a trailer that was at least 50% footage from the other Harry Potter movies to show how this one connects with those ones. That's... pretty desperate.

[Webslinger]

Well, might as well use a "nevermind"ed post for something, so... 

 

I'm surprised to see such a low forecast for Green Book on the long-range report if it's expanding to 2,400 theaters for Thanksgiving. It looks like enough of a crowd-pleaser to go higher if they're going that wide at that point, but we'll see.

Edited November 12, 2018 by Webslinger

[filmlover]

3 hours ago, Webslinger said:

I feel like an underperformance for Fantastic Beasts is coming. I saw an ad on the NFL pre-game show this morning that had Jude Law and Eddie Redmayne introducing a trailer that was at least 50% footage from the other Harry Potter movies to show how this one connects with those ones. That's... pretty desperate.

The overall vibe surrounding the film reminds me of when The Desolation of Smaug came out. Genuine enthusiasm appears pretty low from everyone besides those who can't live without anything and everything, in this case, Harry Potter.

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	98	10691	13377	20.08%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    146 

 

.2811x as many tickets sold as Infinity War four days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6392x as many tickets sold as Black Panther four days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6723x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 four days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.6601x as many tickets sold as Solo four days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1053x as many tickets sold as JW:FK four days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	732	1399	47.68%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      31

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-4 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	92	9959	11978	16.86%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    115

 

=========

 

T-4 Comps for other movies:

 

Black Panther:    200 tickets sold that day. 54.50% of all seats sold.

Infinity War:       305 tickets sold that day. 71.53% of all seats sold.

Deadpool 2:       264 tickets sold that day. 29.67% of all seats sold.

Solo:                  151 tickets sold that day. 40.10% of all seats sold.

Fallen Kingdom: 220 tickets sold that day. 21.58% of all seats sold.

[FantasticBeasts]

4 hours ago, filmlover said:

The overall vibe surrounding the film reminds me of when The Desolation of Smaug came out. Genuine enthusiasm appears pretty low from everyone besides those who can't live without anything and everything, in this case, Harry Potter.

Wasn't that the case with the first one too, though? What is the way of measuring enthusiasm objectively?. Talking about numbers, trailer views are significantly higher than the first one's.

Edited November 12, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[filmlover]

2 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Wasn't that the case with the first one too, though? What is the way of measuring enthusiasm objectively?. Talking about numbers, trailer views are significantly higher than the first one's.

I dunno, I think there was a curiosity factor for the first one since it was the first Harry Potter spin-off since the franchise seemingly sailed off into the sunset for good in 2011, which this one obviously doesn't have. Also doesn't help that this one looks like multiple movies (a Fantastic Beasts sequel, a Harry Potter prequel for some of the supporting characters in that series) crammed into one.

Edited November 12, 2018 by filmlover

[FantasticBeasts]

16 minutes ago, filmlover said:

I dunno, I think there was a curiosity factor for the first one since it was the first Harry Potter spin-off since the franchise seemingly sailed off into the sunset for good in 2011, which this one obviously doesn't have. Also doesn't help that this one looks like multiple movies (a Fantastic Beasts sequel, a Harry Potter prequel for some of the supporting characters in that series) crammed into one.

Well the point is that we can talk on and on but nothing is more than a gut/ impression that we have that is far from safe. I guess we will see soon. I personally think it has as much a chance of underperforming quite a bit as it has increasing from the first. 

Edited November 12, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[el sid]

Fantastic Beast 2 is back in the Top 5 of MT with 3.3% which is a bit earlier than e.g. Venom appeared on the Monday before its release. Not bad at all but FB 2 is even more fan-driven I think (?).

[FantasticBeasts]

9 minutes ago, el sid said:

Fantastic Beast 2 is back in the Top 5 of MT with 3.3% which is a bit earlier than e.g. Venom appeared on the Monday before its release. Not bad at all but FB 2 is even more fan-driven I think (?).

Well and the competition it is facing is far stronger than Venom so I guess entering is more difficult now.

[Valonqar]

HP has always been more fan driven dom thna some other big franchises that attracted casuals. For example, even at the height of hype (first movie, last movie), HP couldn't hit 400M which THG achieved twice back to back with relative ease. However, OS is a different story and that's where HP lorded over franchises that were bigger dom. So the real story will be OS as usual, whether due to increase or unexpected decrease.

[filmlover]

The fact WB decided to not do a US premiere for this one indicates they're expecting overseas to be where the real money comes from.

[TomeRide]

8 hours ago, Porthos said:

.2811x as many tickets sold as Infinity War four days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6392x as many tickets sold as Black Panther four days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6723x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 four days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.6601x as many tickets sold as Solo four days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.1053x as many tickets sold as JW:FK four days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

$39M x 0.2811 = $10.96M

$25.2M x 0.6392 = $16.11M

$18.6M x 0.6723 = $12.5M

$14.1M x 0.6601 = $9.31M

$15.3M x 1.1053 = $16.91M

 

These five average to $13.16M, with Tuesday's screenings making 24.8% of that figure, or $3.26M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday would've seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 

 

3 days ago it looked like this: 

Quote

$39M x 0.2530 = $9.87M

$25.2M x 0.6090 = $15.35M

$18.6M x 0.6635 = $12.34M

$14.1M x 0.5903 = $8.32M

$15.3M x 1.111 = $17M

 

These five average to $12.58M, with Tuesday's screenings making 26.5% of that figure, or $3.33M.

So I was going to make this follow-up yesterday but decided to give it an extra day to balance out after the big spike on Saturday. And well, it did pick some more steam, going up again on the average. Now another thing that can give us some perspective on how it trends is the new addition of how much the other films sold for the same day before release, and it looks like this: 

 

146 (tickets sold that day by Crimes of Grindelwald) / 200 (tickets sold that day by Black Panther) = 0.7300

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 305 (Infinity War) = 0.4787

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 264 (Deadpool 2) = 0.5530

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 151 (Solo) = 0.9669

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 220 (Fallen Kingdom) = 0.6636

 

Basically, its closing fast on Solo, while losing ground very fast to Fallen Kingdom, which confirms our assumption that it won't be another outlier. With that in mind, we could average just Black Panther, Infinity War, and Deadpool 2, which turns out to be $13.19M, compared to the overall average of $13.16M. Makes sense, both of the outliers cancel each other out, but regardless I think that's the number to watch, as its far less volatile without the outliers. 

 

Anyway, $10M+ previews is looking pretty damn good at this point, and I think there's a decent chance of Thursday alone going over $10M. If I had to put a number to it right now I would say around $11M-$12M, as I'm still not confident on it having great walk-ups, but with a 7x multiplier (the original had an 8.5x multiplier) that brings it to $77M-$84M for the opening weekend, which puts it handily over tracking. 

 

I'll probably make another follow-up in a couple of days. 

[FantasticBeasts]

55 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The fact WB decided to not do a US premiere for this one indicates they're expecting overseas to be where the real money comes from.

Good strategy. Star Wars showed what happens to franchises failing to adjust to the new reality with developing markets.

[Valonqar]

33 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Good strategy. Star Wars showed what happens to franchises failing to adjust to the new reality with developing markets.

This. Whether they like to admit or not, the future of blockbusters are developing markets. the more your movie costs, the more you need those growing markets. 

[el sid]

Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST:
FB 2: 68/15 - for some rough comparisons: The Grinch sold 42/15 minutes last Monday at that time, BR had 57/15 at the same day (Monday before its release) and same time
Instant Family: 3/15
Widows: 2/15
Ralph: 16/15
Creed II: 7/15

And Pulse always 11:13-11:19 EST (last Monday it was a longer term, from 11:05-11:19):
FB 2: 78 in only 7 minutes - The Grinch sold 65/15 minutes last Monday at that time; BR sold 82/15 at that time (on the Monday before its release)
Instant Family: 6/7
Widows: 3/7
Ralph: 12/7
Creed II: 6/7
Robin Hood: 2/7

Edited November 12, 2018 by el sid

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, TomeRide said:

$39M x 0.2811 = $10.96M

$25.2M x 0.6392 = $16.11M

$18.6M x 0.6723 = $12.5M

$14.1M x 0.6601 = $9.31M

$15.3M x 1.1053 = $16.91M

 

These five average to $13.16M, with Tuesday's screenings making 24.8% of that figure, or $3.26M (though I'd consider it part of the regular previews, as anyone who'll see it on Tuesday would've seen it on opening night regardless). For reference, the first one earned $8.75M in its previews. 

 

3 days ago it looked like this: 

So I was going to make this follow-up yesterday but decided to give it an extra day to balance out after the big spike on Saturday. And well, it did pick some more steam, going up again on the average. Now another thing that can give us some perspective on how it trends is the new addition of how much the other films sold for the same day before release, and it looks like this: 

 

146 (tickets sold that day by Crimes of Grindelwald) / 200 (tickets sold that day by Black Panther) = 0.7300

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 305 (Infinity War) = 0.4787

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 264 (Deadpool 2) = 0.5530

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 151 (Solo) = 0.9669

146 (Crimes of Grindelwald) / 220 (Fallen Kingdom) = 0.6636

 

Basically, its closing fast on Solo, while losing ground very fast to Fallen Kingdom, which confirms our assumption that it won't be another outlier. With that in mind, we could average just Black Panther, Infinity War, and Deadpool 2, which turns out to be $13.19M, compared to the overall average of $13.16M. Makes sense, both of the outliers cancel each other out, but regardless I think that's the number to watch, as its far less volatile without the outliers. 

 

Anyway, $10M+ previews is looking pretty damn good at this point, and I think there's a decent chance of Thursday alone going over $10M. If I had to put a number to it right now I would say around $11M-$12M, as I'm still not confident on it having great walk-ups, but with a 7x multiplier (the original had an 8.5x multiplier) that brings it to $77M-$84M for the opening weekend, which puts it handily over tracking. 

 

I'll probably make another follow-up in a couple of days. 

I think right now the ticket-per-day pace is much more indicative than the final number, and here FB2 has been mimicking Solo an awful lot.

 

For instance, I did not like FB2's Sat and Sun number.  At all.  It was practically the same as Solo's, and is a warning sign that FB2 will not mimic the movies that sold a ton of tickets on M/T/W/Th.

 

Now I DO think 10m+ is more likely than not now, but it's more a comparison to Ant Man & the Wasp (which I'll start comparing tonight) and Venom (tomorrow) and definitely NOT Jurassic World 2.

 

I'm about to run out the door, so analysis with hard numbers will have to wait, but as I take a quick look at Fandango sales right not, I'm not exactly encouraged for the prospects of FB2.

[Porthos]

BTW, when I say it's mimicking Solo and awful lot I am NOT saying it will get 13m in previews.  Just the opposite.  I am talking about the fact that Solo just did not sell that many tickets in its run up to release, compared to all of the other movies I've tracked.

 

Call it the difference between a soft launch and a hard launch. 

[MrGlass2]

31 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I think right now the ticket-per-day pace is much more indicative than the final number, and here FB2 has been mimicking Solo an awful lot. 

Your data is always appreciated. However in this case the blockbusters in the list make for a poor comparison, FB2 certainly isn't expected to open at $200M+, or even $100M+. Solo numbers would be fine, domestically.

13 hours ago, filmlover said:

The overall vibe surrounding the film reminds me of when The Desolation of Smaug came out. Genuine enthusiasm appears pretty low from everyone besides those who can't live without anything and everything, in this case, Harry Potter.

How is Smaug different then from any "franchise" movie than makes less than $258M ($288M adjusted) DOM, $958M worldwide.

[Welfin]

Harry Potter can't compete with the big boys anymore.

What have you done, Rowling. 

[FantasticBeasts]

2 minutes ago, Welfin said:

Harry Potter can't compete with the big boys anymore.

What have you done, Rowling. 

When is there a Harry Potter movie releasing? Have you heard anything?