The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Welfin]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

When is there a Harry Potter movie releasing? Have you heard anything?

Is Solo no longer a Star Wars movie either?

[FantasticBeasts]

Just now, Welfin said:

Is Solo no longer a Star Wars movie either?

It has Star Wars in the title, as well as one of SW's most beloved characters in it. Don't pretend Han Solo is equal to what Dumbledore is to Harry Potter (who btw is not even the protagonist of this).

What are you even suggesting here? Fantastic Beasts grossed $815m. Nearly $600m overseas and it didn't even contain more than 5 mins of a single well known Harry Potter character. You find that an unimpressive performance? Would you rather wait and see how this one does before jumping the gun? 

[Welfin]

Just now, FantasticBeasts said:

It has Star Wars in the title

You're splitting hairs to justify the upcoming mediocre performance of your anticipated franchise blockbuster. 

 

Every Harry Potter fan knows this takes place in the same world. WB has shoved Harry Potter connections all over the marketing. There's nothing subtle here. 

 

If the 2nd film in a planned 5 film franchise starts heavily declining that isn't a good thing for the franchise. 

[FantasticBeasts]

5 minutes ago, Welfin said:

You're splitting hairs to justify the upcoming mediocre performance of your anticipated franchise blockbuster. 

 

Every Harry Potter fan knows this takes place in the same world. WB has shoved Harry Potter connections all over the marketing. There's nothing subtle here. 

 

If the 2nd film in a planned 5 film franchise starts heavily declining that isn't a good thing for the franchise. 

You are talking as though this has underperformed.

Let me tell you the facts: The first film had zero recognizable Harry Potter characters, no Harry Potter brand attached to its title, no big actor names either returning or entering and yet managed to make a number few franchises can pull off and be one of WB's most profitable films lately only by JKRowling's name. So yeah good job with your wishful thinking but I am talking with receipts not speculations.

P.S.: Brand attatchement is very important for a film's performance. Those films want more than the core fanbase to be successes and having "Star Wars" in the title is a huge deal for casual fans/the GA in general.

Edited November 12, 2018 by FantasticBeasts

[Welfin]

We will see in a matter of days. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, MrGlass2 said:

Your data is always appreciated. However in this case the blockbusters in the list make for a poor comparison, FB2 certainly isn't expected to open at $200M+, or even $100M+. Solo numbers would be fine, domestically.

I think as percentage based comps, they're fine.  Especially at the final number.  The real danger on comps is the pace leading up to release. 

 

Here are the tickets sold on M-Th (I usually stop tracking about an hour or so before the main block of showings on Thr) for various movies I've tracked:

 

M-Th:

Black Panther:    3858

Infinity War:       3608

Deadpool 2:       4138

Solo:                  1720

Fallen Kingdom: 3798

 

One of these is not like the other.  Even JW2, which did a little more than Solo (15.3 v 14.1) on previews, rocketed past Solo in the final days

 

I have partial data for Venom and AM&TW as well:

 

T-Th:

Ant-Man 2:        2582

Solo:                  1524

---

Black Panther:    3591

Infinity War:       3059

Deadpool 2:       3764

Fallen Kingdom: 3355

 

Wed-Thr:

Ant-Man 2:        2314

Venom:              2235

Solo:                  1288

---

Black Panther:    2825

Infinity War:       2368

Deadpool 2:       3039

Fallen Kingdom: 2804

 

On these comps, Ant-Man 2 and Venom are clearly in a different tier than the bigger movies, but they still beat up on my poor Solo movie.

 

===============

 

So why am I drawing attention to these comps?  Mostly because I wasn't sure if the Friday bump that FB2 saw was due to the premiere or if it was a sign of a ramp up of sales.  Now the jury isn't fully out yet, but here are the Sat+Sun comps:

 

Black Panther:                386

Infinity War:                   587

Deadpool 2:                   638

Solo:                              240

Fallen Kingdom:             344

Crimes of Grindelwald:   237

 

JW2 is already on its upswing.  DP2 is breaking out all over the place.  Solo?  Flatline.

 

Not a great sign for FB2 breaking out, is mostly what I am trying to show.

 

================

 

Now, all of that out of the way, I want to show why I think it's still possible that FB2 does clear 10m in previews.

 

I have a yard marker in Venom, which hit 10m in previews on the nose.

 

I have Venom at 4493 tickets sold locally at stop of tracking.  As of last night, I had FB2 at 2686 tickets sold locally.  Even if FB2 follows Solo EXACTLY from here on out (and remember, even AM&TW and Venom outsold it in the run up), I get 4406.

 

That's 98% of Venom's final total.  As much as it pains me to say it, I expect FB2 to outsell Solo over the next few relative days.  If not by much.

 

Still, that I get 98% of Venom if FB2 copies Solo from here on out does show, I think, why it might miss 10m. 

 

Edited November 12, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

9 minutes ago, pencilello said:

FB2 started presales earlier and has its presales divided up between Tuesday and Thursday showings. Additionally, an 80 mil OW like Solo’s would be good for FB2. 

 

I think you need to adjust your expectations. It still looks like it’s on it’s way to outgrossing the first, if only by a bit. 

Pretty sure I've been more optimistic about FB2 than most here.   I was outlining a path to a 10m preview number a couple of weeks ago, don't forget (though then I was more doubtful about it than I am now).

 

As for FB2 splitting it's presales, that's why I've been sub-tracking both dates.  

 

As I think about that, it does make me wonder how much of a Tuesday bounce it will get.  On the other hand, I also wonder if that will deflate the Wed/Thr upswing slightly.

 

Mostly I expect it to be a wash, when all is said and done.

[TomeRide]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

For instance, I did not like FB2's Sat and Sun number.  At all.  It was practically the same as Solo's, and is a warning sign that FB2 will not mimic the movies that sold a ton of tickets on M/T/W/Th.

What did you expect though? Its not like we're expecting it to hit $15M+ on previews, are we? 

 

Lets say it sold 200 tickets that day. That would be the same as Black Panther (which made $25.2M in its previews), about 2/3 of what Infinity War ($39M) sold, and around 3/4 of Deadpool 2 ($18.6M). Of course there are caveats with all those comparisons, but if that were to happen it would be a sign of it going for $15M+ on previews. The problem is that you compare it to both of the outliers. Its not going to be as backloaded as Fallen Kingdom and I don't think anybody is exepecting that, nor should they. Even if it was basically the same as Solo, that's not necessarily a bad sign, and that doesn't mean its mimiking it, as its been gaining ground on it all week. Also, I'm fairly certain it'll start to outpace it tomorrow, or the next day at the latest, andif it fails to do so, then sure, that's a bad sign. But again, I'd prefer to focus on the other three, rather than the clear outliers (and I mean that by how frontloaded/backloaded they were with their respective grosses). 

 

Anyway, we'll get a clearer picture in the coming days, obviously. 

[Porthos]

1 hour ago, TomeRide said:

What did you expect though? Its not like we're expecting it to hit $15M+ on previews, are we? 

Lets say it sold 200 tickets that day. That would be the same as Black Panther (which made $25.2M in its previews), about 2/3 of what Infinity War ($39M) sold, and around 3/4 of Deadpool 2 ($18.6M). Of course there are caveats with all those comparisons,

Of course there are.  The caveats is: The number of tickets that had already been sold.

 

See, this is the problem in a nutshell for FB2.  It is selling at the pace, or thereabouts close enough, as Solo but didn't have the built in base that Solo had.

 

Personally, and I'm just spitballing here, I think something around 10.5m to 11.5m sounds right.  Maybe as high as 12m (very doubtful) or as low as 9m (if the bottom falls out).

 

====

 

Let my try to put all of this in a slightly different way.

 

Right now, FB2 has many more tickets sold at this point in time than AM2 (11.2m) and Venom (10m), barring the Monday update which I'll do in about four to five hours from now.  I'm just skeptical that it will come close to the ticket sales of THOSE two movies in the last few days of pre-sales.

 

Thus I am best trying to figure out what FB2 will get in the next couple of days, and then figure out where it'll land.  I'm somewhat confident it has enough of a built-in lead to pass Venom.  AM2?  That's the real question.

[clockwork]

11 hours ago, filmlover said:

The fact WB decided to not do a US premiere for this one indicates they're expecting overseas to be where the real money comes from.

I was thinking this exact same thing when I read they scrapped the US premiere. Originally there was supposed to be premieres in New  York, France, and London, but they just suddenly cancelled their New York appearance and gave no reason why. I suspect they crunched some numbers and decided to be less concerned with domestic box office. Each of these FB movies are going to be taking place in a different country so this franchise will truly become an international one in spirit and box office wise.

[MrGlass2]

MovieTickets:

 

1	43.1%	Dr. Seuss' The Grinch
2	15.2%	Bohemian Rhapsody
3	6.4%	Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald
4	6%	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms
5	4.6%	A Star is Born

Edited November 13, 2018 by MrGlass2

[filmlover]

If WB wants to ever see Harry Potter types of grosses from the Fantastic Beasts series they should just make the next one all about the Nifflers. Who cares about Eddie Redmayne and fan service when you have two hours of Nifflers doing Niffler things? Go where the money is.

 

[Porthos]

FB2 has just hit the number 1 slot over at Fandango (it had been in third for most of the day):

 

--------------------------------------------------
2018-11-12 21:00:00	542	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
2018-11-12 21:00:00	468	Dr. Seuss The Grinch (2018)
2018-11-12 21:00:00	428	Bohemian Rhapsody
2018-11-12 21:00:00	133	Overlord (2018)
2018-11-12 21:00:00	117	A Star Is Born (2018)
2018-11-12 21:00:00	78	The Girl in the Spiders Web
2018-11-12 21:00:00	78	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-11-12 21:00:00	63	The Nutcracker and the Four Realms

 

Plus the other versions of FB2 further down the list.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Porthos

[Barnack]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

FB2 has just hit the number 1 slot over at Fandango:

 

Must have been a while with the IMAX 2D, 3D, Fandom Event, Fandom Event Imax, etc.... sales combined,

[Porthos]

52 minutes ago, Barnack said:

Must have been a while with the IMAX 2D, 3D, Fandom Event, Fandom Event Imax, etc.... sales combined,

Only for one more hour, I think.

 

*checks*

 

Yeah, the previous hour FB2 All Formats beat The Grinch All Formats by a little more than 30 tickets (34 to be exact).  Two hours previously, The Grinch as ahead by about 100 or so, and it increased from there the earlier in the day.

Edited November 13, 2018 by Porthos

[Porthos]

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	102	10987	13876	20.82%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              4

Total Seats Added Today:                 499

Total Seats Sold Today:                    203 

 

.2859x as many tickets sold as Infinity War three days before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6402x as many tickets sold as Black Panther three days before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6612x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 three days before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.6774x as many tickets sold as Solo three days before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.0056x as many tickets sold as JW:FK three days before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.4281x as many tickets sold as AM&tW three days before release (AM&tW had 18 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

 

===

 

Tue/Thr Breakdown:

 

Tuesday Night Limited Engagement Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	6	717	1399	26.73%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                      15

 

Thursday Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting:

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	96	10270	12477	17.69%

 

Total Showings Added Today:              4

Total Seats Added Today:                 499

Total Seats Sold Today:                    188

 

=========

 

T-3 Comps for other movies:

 

Black Panther:            311 tickets sold that day. 54.51% of all seats sold.

Infinity War:               549 tickets sold that day. 72.37% of all seats sold.

Deadpool 2:               374 tickets sold that day. 30.81% of all seats sold.

Solo:                          196 tickets sold that day. 38.74% of all seats sold.

Fallen Kingdom:         443 tickets sold that day. 23.75% of all seats sold.

Ant-Man & the Wasp: n/a tickets sold that day.  20.18% of all seats sold.

 

 

[Porthos]

10 hours ago, Porthos said:

Now, all of that out of the way, I want to show why I think it's still possible that FB2 does clear 10m in previews.

 

I have a yard marker in Venom, which hit 10m in previews on the nose.

 

I have Venom at 4493 tickets sold locally at stop of tracking.  As of last night, I had FB2 at 2686 tickets sold locally.  Even if FB2 follows Solo EXACTLY from here on out (and remember, even AM&TW and Venom outsold it in the run up), I get 4406.

 

That's 98% of Venom's final total.  As much as it pains me to say it, I expect FB2 to outsell Solo over the next few relative days.  If not by much.

 

Still, that I get 98% of Venom if FB2 copies Solo from here on out does show, I think, why it might miss 10m. 

 

 

Just now, Porthos said:

Fantastic Beasts: The Crimes of Grindelwald Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-3 Days and counting

[Includes Limited Showings for Tuesday]

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	102	10987	13876	20.82%

 

Total Seats Sold Today:                    203 

 

Solo:                          196 tickets sold that day. 38.74% of all seats sold.

 

*cough*

 

    

[Eric Duncan]

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinke In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1469	3607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Small Foot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7255	9026	12546	26476
Nutcracker	1659	1949	2567	5518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1719	4437
The Grinch	3580	4860	10092	17046
Spider's Web	286	718	1735	3554
Overlord	299	604	1599	4522
Fantastic Beasts	8956
Widows	310
Instant Family	230
*4pm-12am

 

 

Movie/Day	Monday	Tuesday	Wednesday	Thursday
Ralph 2	795
Creed II	540
Robin Hood	62

Edited November 13, 2018 by CoolEric258

[WrathOfHan]

Widows and Instant Family are selling less than what tracking suggests. Hopefully they pick up the pace today

[WrathOfHan]

Pulse:

 

1. Fanatstic Beasts

2. The Grinch

3. Bohemian Rhapsody

4. Ralph

5. Creed II