The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[filmlover]

8 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

Venom skewed younger than a HP movie?

 

HP universe movie always skews younger than a CBM, IMHO. Even more if the CBM is about a dark character, no matter how light the film is in the end.

 

I know the tone in FB2 is darker than first, but I doubt it's darker than DH1&2.

The first Harry Potter movie came out 17 years ago and most of the children/teens who saw it in theaters then are now late-20/early-30 somethings so...yeah, seems natural that Fantastic Beasts would skew older.

[stripe]

26 minutes ago, a2k said:

Venom did 8x the previews. FB2 may not crack 7x as it's a sequel to a movie that did 8.4x the previews.

 

APOC and DOFP had previews of 8.2 and 8.1 respectively with OWs of 65.8 (8.0x) and 90.8 (11.2x). That is how much more front-loaded a sequel can get compared to it's predecessor.

 

Thinking 6.5-6.75x for FB2, so hope previews come in at 10.5 if not more.

 

DOFP was already a sequel that benefited from returning characters. APOC didn't have Wolverine as a lead. Also, different audiences.

 

Like the first FB, hype is solid but fans are not rushing to see it. Can't see it falling below 7x the previews

[stripe]

14 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The first Harry Potter movie came out 17 years ago and most of the children/teens who saw it in theaters then are now late-20/early-30 somethings so...yeah, seems natural that Fantastic Beasts would skew older.

 

You know, kids today still love to see HP movies in their home. It's not as if the saga vanished after theatrical run. My 8 year old daughter, and many children I know, have seen HP movies and are waiting for FB2. So FB benefits from new generation of young audience.

[TalismanRing]

Fandango (Eye Count 5-10 min avg)

 

FB2:  36.5 (10:50am),  44.75 (11:30am)

 

THUR

• WW: 46 (10am), 125 (5pm)
• SM:HC: 49avg (9am), 110 (12pm), 138( 1pm) 174 (3:50pm), 216 (5:20pm)
• IT: 25 (8:20am) 41(9am) 102 (12:20pm) 140 (1pm) 186 (4:50pm)
• THOR:R: 103 (12:15) 112 (1:15pm), 145 (4pm) 175 (4:50)
• JL: 45.2 (10am), 78 (12pm), 92 (1:30pm), 103 (3:30pm), 124 (4:15pm), 145 (5:30pm), 156 (7:45)
• TLJ: 275 (10:45am)
• BP: 244 (2:30)
• AIW: 240 (11:15am), 305 (3pm)
• DP2: 55 (9:30 am), 60 (10am), 98.75 (12pm), 165.5 (3:20pm), 204 (5:20pm)
• Solo:  47 (10:10am), 57 (10.30am), 73 (12:30pm)
• JW2: 120 (2pm), 121 (3:30pm), 120 (3:45pm), 156.7 (5:30pm)
• AM&TW: 135 (5:15pm)

 

 

[TalismanRing]

7 minutes ago, stripe said:

 

You know, kids today still love to see HP movies in their home. It's not as if the saga vanished after theatrical run. My 8 year old daughter, and many children I know, have seen HP movies and are waiting for FB2. So FB benefits from new generation of young audience.

https://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/fantastic-beasts-box-office-harry-potter-1201923148/

 

Quote

 

It’s been nearly 20 years since Harry Potter, the bespectacled boy wizard, first sprang on the pop culture scene as the main attraction in J.K. Rowling’s fantasy novels. A film version of the best-selling phenomenon hit screens in 2001, kicking off a franchise that has grossed $2.5 billion globally, inspiring theme park rides and a wide array of merchandising.

 

Over the ensuing decades, the generation that first embraced the stories of the “boy who lived,” has come of age. They’re adults now, some sporting their own children.

 

As “Fantastic Beasts and Where to Find Them” demonstrates, they’ve done a lot of growing up. The Harry Potter spinoff debuted to $75 million over the weekend, and unlike other films in the wizarding series, adults comprised the bulk of the audience. Sixty five percent of consumers clocked in over the age of 25, with 35% of the opening weekend crowd under 25 years old and 18% under the age of 18. The link to Potter was a big draw, with 51% of consumers citing its connection to the previous films as a reason for seeing “Fantastic Beasts,” according to a comScore survey.

 

 

[el sid]

Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST:

Fantastic Beasts 2: 314/15 - The Grinch had 184/15 minutes at that time
Widows: 39/15 - The Girl in the Spider's Web had 32/15 on Thursday at that time
Instant Family: 21/15
Green Book: 2/15
Ralph: 18/15
Creed II: 17/15
Robin Hood: 1/15

And Pulse always 11:09-11:19 EST:

FB 2: 435 in only 11 minutes - The Grinch had 274/14 (almost) at that time, BR had 421/15
Widows: 64/11 - Spider's Web had 42/15 on Thursday at that time, would mean over 10M for sure, but more like around 14-15M than 20M 

Instant Family: 25/11 - walk ups en masse are needed to reach the projections
Green Book: 1/11
Creed II: 25/11 – had 6/15 sold tickets last Thursday at that time
Ralph: 19/11
no Robin Hood this time

If we would only know how frontloaded FB 2 will be...but presales-wise there's absolutely no reason to worry.

[Eric Duncan]

2 minutes ago, el sid said:

Pulse always 8:35-8:49 EST:

Fantastic Beasts 2: 314/15 - The Grinch had 184/15 minutes at that time
Widows: 39/15 - The Girl in the Spider's Web had 32/15 on Thursday at that time
Instant Family: 21/15
Green Book: 2/15
Ralph: 18/15
Creed II: 17/15
Robin Hood: 1/15

And Pulse always 11:09-11:19 EST:

FB 2: 435 in only 11 minutes - The Grinch had 274/14 (almost) at that time, BR had 421/15
Widows: 64/11 - Spider's Web had 42/15 on Thursday at that time, would mean over 10M for sure, but more like around 14-15M than 20M 

Instant Family: 25/11 - walk ups en masse are needed to reach the projections
Green Book: 1/11
Creed II: 25/11 – had 6/15 sold tickets last Thursday at that time
Ralph: 19/11
no Robin Hood this time

If we would only know how frontloaded FB 2 will be...but presales-wise there's absolutely no reason to worry.

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

 

28990	2018-11-15	THU	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
27569	2018-11-16	FRI	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
20980	2018-11-17	SAT	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
8948	2018-11-18	SUN	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald

[YLF]

Is widows about to flop? 

[filmlover]

16 minutes ago, YLF said:

Is widows about to flop? 

It's selling pretty well around me FWIW. The 6:20 tomorrow night has sold 61 seats at my theater in a 200+ seater, which is pretty good for a walk-up driven adult-targeted movie.

[Valonqar]

32 minutes ago, YLF said:

Is widows about to flop? 

Nope. But IF might unless walk ups save it. 

 

However, biggest surprise for the ages is that RH, yes RH, sold one ticket already! A week in advance! Boxoffice upset incoming! Bye Ralph and Creed. 

Edited November 15, 2018 by Valonqar

[James]

10 hours ago, CoolEric258 said:

http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/fandango_report.txt

 

28990	2018-11-15	THU	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
27569	2018-11-16	FRI	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
20980	2018-11-17	SAT	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald
8948	2018-11-18	SUN	Fantastic Beasts The Crimes of Grindelwald

Good/bad?

[Porthos]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Tues had 836 seats sold.  As of last night Thur has 2941. 

 

That's 28.47% not including sales for today and I gather any late night walk ups for Tues.   But let's say 836 was the total and Thur adds say another 600 seats tonight - that would be about 23.6%.

 

Too bad we didn't get any Tues Preview #s for FB2

FWIW, I stopped tracking at five minutes before showtime on Tuesday (it's MUCH easier to do that when only tracking a handful of screenings).  Since it was the only showtime of the night, it might as well be the final total, barring a last second walkup.

Edited November 15, 2018 by Porthos

[el sid]

MT surprises me a bit:

#1 FB 2 33.6%
#2 The Grinch 20%
#3 BR 11%
#4 Rachel Hollis 4.1%
#5 Instant Family 3% - did it really overtake Widows in the last 2 hours?  OTOH 3% are not too much...

[Eric Duncan]

22 minutes ago, James said:

Good/bad?

Haven’t paid much attention to the “reports” or how a film like this is typically divided. Sorry

[Valonqar]

6 minutes ago, el sid said:

MT surprises me a bit:

#1 FB 2 33.6%
#2 The Grinch 20%
#3 BR 11%
#4 Rachel Hollis 4.1%
#5 Instant Family 3% - did it really overtake Widows in the last 2 hours?  OTOH 3% are not too much...

what or who is Rachel Hollis? 

[TomeRide]

11 hours ago, Porthos said:

.3275x as many tickets sold as Infinity War one day before release. (IW had 11 more days of pre-sales)

.6370x as many tickets sold as Black Panther one day before release (BP had 8 more days of pre-sales) 

.6370x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 one day before release (DP2 had 29 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.7743x as many tickets sold as Solo one day before release (Solo had 20 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

.9010x as many tickets sold as JW:FK one day before release (JW:FK had 22 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.4318x as many tickets sold as AM&tW one day before release (AM&tW had 18 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

1.3705x as many tickets sold as Venom one day before release (Venom had 21 days of pre-sales compared to FB2's 30 days of pre-sales)

$39M x 0.3275 = 12.77M

$25.2M x 0.6370 = $16.05M

$18.6M x 0.6370 = $11.85M

$14.1M x 0.7743 = $10.92M

$15.3M x 0.9010 = $13.78M

$11.5M x 1.4318 = $16.47M

$10M x 1.3705 = $13.7M 

 

These seven films average to $13.65M. Currently the Tuesday sales take up 22.134% of all sales (though that number will obviously decrease). Without those sales the average would be $10.63M. 

 

Quote

Black Panther:             650 tickets sold that day. 56.33% of all seats sold.   [4597/10526 seats left - 121 showings]

Infinity War:                738 tickets sold that day. 76.09% of all seats sold.   [3625/15159 seats left - 174 showings]

Deadpool 2:                835 tickets sold that day. 36.70% of all seats sold. [10226/16155 seats left - 166 showings]

Solo:                           377 tickets sold that day. 36.26% of all seats sold.   [8575/13453 seats left - 142 showings]

Fallen Kingdom:          768 tickets sold that day. 30.57% of all seats sold.   [9523/13715 seats left - 147 showings]

Ant-Man & the Wasp:  347 tickets sold that day. 24.21% of all seats sold.   [8258/10896 seats left - 112 showings]

Venom:                       498 tickets sold that day. 20.93% of all seats sold. [10414/13170 seats left - 122 showings]

 

492 / 650 = 0.7569 | $25.2M x 0.7569 = $19.07M (not relevant due to so many seats already taken)

492 / 738 = 0.6667 | $39M x 0.6667 = 26M (not relevant at all, same as Black Panther)

492 / 835 = 0.5892 | $18.6M x 0.5892 = $10.96M

492 / 377 = 1.3050 | $14.1M x 1.3050 = $18.4M

492 / 768 = 0.6406 | $15.3M x 0.6406 = $9.8M 

492 / 347 = 1.4179 | $11.5M x 1.4179 = $16.31M

492 / 498 = 0.9879 | $10M x 0.9879 = $9.88M 

 

The average of these (excluding Infinity War and Black Panther) is 13.07M.

 

The thing is, Solo have been really frontloaded for all of its presales run, while Fallen Kingdom had been really backloaded, rendering these two outliers, and not very helpful in terms of where Crimes of Grindelwald will land. In addition, Ant-Man and the Wasp has been really weak in these presales compared to its actual previews number (maybe summer walk-ups? or it was very weak in this region? I don't know), so its not helpful either. And when it comes to Infinity War and Black Panther, their numbers are might too big to be used as good reference. All of this is to say, that I think the two films that are most worth our time to look at are Deadpool 2 and Venom. 

 

Regardless, I just wanted to do some calculations to get some perspective on how it stands right now, and y'all are free to interpret them however you'd like. For me it just looks pretty unlikely for it to fall below $10M, at least when Tuesday's previews are counted in. Currently my prediction would be $10.5M-$11M for the full previews, and $75M for the weekend. 

[MaxAggressor]

37 minutes ago, el sid said:

MT surprises me a bit:

#1 FB 2 33.6%
#2 The Grinch 20%
#3 BR 11%
#4 Rachel Hollis 4.1%
#5 Instant Family 3% - did it really overtake Widows in the last 2 hours?  OTOH 3% are not too much...

Seems like it really did

 

 

[DAJK]

If Instant Family bombs I'll be super disappointed, given it seems like a shockingly endearing movie. 

 

Legit, I thought it would get trashed by critics. But if it turns out that it's actually pretty good from a concept/trailer that could have gone so, so wrong, then they deserve something for their efforts. 

[Valonqar]

1 minute ago, DAJK said:

If Instant Family bombs I'll be super disappointed, given it seems like a shockingly endearing movie. 

 

Legit, I thought it would get trashed by critics. But if it turns out that it's actually pretty good from a concept/trailer that could have gone so, so wrong, then they deserve something for their efforts. 

it looks really sweet but there's also lots of family market competition that has actual built-in audience meaning they will prioritize those movies (Grinch, FB, Ralph). we'll see. As others pointed out, walk ups will decide. 

[Barnack]

48 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

what or who is Rachel Hollis? 

It is a best seller book author making a streamed in theater conference I think, never heard of her before.