The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Deep Wang]

37 minutes ago, JB33 said:

@Deep Wang is feeling a $190M opening weekend!

[MattW]

Based on everything so far I'm guessing it'll land in between Mockingjay 1 and Catching Fire, 120-160.

[MCKillswitch123]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

Slightly ahead of Ant-man 2 is not very encouraging for those $1 billion predictions. This is Guardians 2 all over again, fans setting expectations too high and then having to pretend they were not disappointed.

Wasn't BVS the cbm with the biggest pre-sales ever at a point? Look how that turned out.

 

Wasn't Solo way above Black Panther in pre-sales? Look how that turned out.

 

Wasn't Beasts 2 a bigger pre-sales heavyweight than Jurassic World 2? Look how that turned out.

 

Two months before release and ahead of Ant-Man 2 whose pre-sales started 18 days before release is kind of not a small deal, but whatever.

 

(For the record, I'm not predicting a billion, though. 800+ seems right. Any excuses against a number like that for a film like Captain Marvel are laughable.)

Edited January 9, 2019 by MCKillswitch123

[DAJK]

30 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

Wasn't BVS the cbm with the biggest pre-sales ever at a point? Look how that turned out.

 

Wasn't Solo way above Black Panther in pre-sales? Look how that turned out.

 

Wasn't Beasts 2 a bigger pre-sales heavyweight than Jurassic World 2? Look how that turned out.

 

Two months before release and ahead of Ant-Man 2 whose pre-sales started 18 days before release is kind of not a small deal, but whatever.

 

(For the record, I'm not predicting a billion, though. 800+ seems right. Any excuses against a number like that for a film like Captain Marvel are laughable.)

BvS technically did have a better OD than Avengers. Star Wars is always pre-sale heavy, as is Beasts, while JW we already know is extremely walk-up heavy.

 

Your points are valid if looked at on their own, but there’s so much context missing from them.

[MattW]

Civil War's presales were higher than BvS, although if I remember right Deep Wang's numbers had them pretty close for his theater chain

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Your points are valid if looked at on their own, but there’s so much context missing from them.

There are lies, damned lies...

 

====

 

Look, I love playing with numbers as much as anyone.  Probably more than many, honestly.  But the thing is, the famous saying about statistics resonates for a reason. And mostly it comes down to context, as you note.

 

Like, locally Captain Marvel  did 2.5x the amount of tickets on its first day as Fallen Kingdom.  But no one, and I mean NO ONE, think that means it'll do 38m on its preview night.

 

And even when judging tickets in context, it is rough, simply because the sample size is still small enough that the data only gives a glimpse at things.  A better glimpse than pull out of one's ass guessing, sure.  But still a glimpse. 

 

Expanding the sample size to more movies has problems as well, because of the ever changing landscape of movies.  One has to correlate historical trends within genres/franchises alongside shifting buying patterns.  This is one of the things @TalismanRing ring excels at, for instance.  And even then it can only go so far since movies have different pre-sale release pattens with different media rollouts.  Having different world premieres (when the first real buzz starts to hit) can seriously muck up analysis of pre-sale buying patterns if one isn't accounting for it.

 

In short, these are guidelines.  Best to treat them as such and refine them as more and more data comes in.

 

 

[MrGlass2]

On 1/9/2019 at 6:38 AM, MrGlass2 said:

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	15.783%	10176	Aquaman
2	09.818%	6330	Captain Marvel (2019)
3	09.762%	6294	Escape Room (2019)
4	07.836%	5052	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
5	05.951%	3837	Bumblebee

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-01-09 00:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	11.972%	6923	Aquaman
2	07.624%	4409	Dragon Ball Super Broly
3	06.716%	3884	Spider-Man Into the Spider-Verse
4	06.518%	3769	The Upside
5	06.417%	3711	Escape Room (2019)
6	05.333%	3084	Mary Poppins Returns (2018)
7	04.525%	2617	Captain Marvel (2019)
8	04.219%	2440	Bumblebee
9	04.173%	2413	Vice (2018)
10	03.934%	2275	On the Basis of Sex
...
13	02.698%	1560	A Dogs Way Home
19	01.548%	895	Captain Marvel
20	01.401%	810	Glass (2019)
26	00.609%	352	Replicas

Edited January 10, 2019 by MrGlass2

[NamakFiskKa]

6 hours ago, MattW said:

Based on everything so far I'm guessing it'll land in between Mockingjay 1 and Catching Fire, 120-160.

Nope 

[Porthos]

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-57 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	7855	9548	17.73%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    6

Total Seats Added Today:       844 

Total Seats Sold Today:          195

 

.3254x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after two days of pre-sales.

.8611x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after nine days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

.9889x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after nine-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for DP2] 

.6066x as many tickets sold as Solo after two days of pre-sales. 

2.1845x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after two days of pre-sales.
2.1005x as many tickers sold as FB2 after two-plus days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Day Two Comps:

 

IW:      541 tickets sold [1 sellout  | 5297/10500 seats left   | 45.83% sold]

Solo:   161 tickets sold [0 sellouts | 6557/9346 seats left     | 29.86% sold]

JW:FK: 180 tickets sold [0 sellouts | 9338/10113 seats left   |   7.66% sold]

FB2:    150 tickets sold [0 sellouts | 12571/13377 seats left |   6.03% sold]

 

Edited January 16, 2019 by Porthos

[el sid]

MT (I think) before the update:

#1 Aquaman 11.5%

#1 MPR 6.7%

#3 Spider-Man 6.2%
#4 On The Basis Of Sex 5.4%
#5 The Upside 5.3%

After the Thursday update:

#1 Aquaman 11.5%
#2 MPR 6.6%
#3 Spider-Man 6.2%
#4 The Upside 5.5%
#5 OTBOS 5.5%

Edited January 10, 2019 by el sid

[Manny G]

6 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Nope 

Nope what? Higher or lower. I think that $120M-$160M is actually a great range. I’m pegging it at $145M

[XO21]

Being above Civil War or BvS means nothing...both are 3 years old movies.

[Eric Duncan]

DO NOT QUOTE THIS WHEN QUOTED THE SPOILER IS REMOVED FROM ITS BOX

 

Spoiler

Fandango App	Monday	Tues	Wed	Thursday
A Wrinkle In Time		4,864		15,601
A Quiet Place	2,177	4,003	10,665
Blockers	504	1,106	2,931
Rampage	705	1,508	4,109
Truth Or Dare	385	760	2,133
Super Troopers	2,825	3,447	6,881
I Feel Pretty	871	1,610	4,423
Avengers: Infinity War	49,836	54,892	68,826	206,000
Overboard	84	409	1,044
Breaking In	727	1204	2,899
Life Of The Party	587	1,310	3,010
Deadpool 2	23,134	28,896	41,212
Show Dogs	6	128	369
Book Club	836	1,599	3,283
SW: Solo	13,688	15,855	28,533
Action Point	17	48	197
Upgrade	9	119	522
Adrift	63	308	1,268
Oceans 8	3,009	4,372	11,114
Hereditary	659	1,178	3,181
Hotel Artemis	26	166	520
Incredibles 2	20,872	23,430	39,337
Tag	314	660	1,448
Jurassic World 2	9,310	12,761	23,266
Sicario 2	788	1,282	3,403
Uncle Drew	274	473	1,201
Antman & The Wasp	6,613	5,990	11,108
Purge (Wed)	2,885	8,308
Hotel Transylvania 3	1,753	2,674	6,605	14,754
Skyscraper	586	1,019	2,868	7,134
Mamma Mia 2	4,427	5,099	12,117	17,226
Equalizer	1,418	2,297	6,073	11,875
Unfriended		71	240	975
MI6		*3328	13,575	27,261
Teen Titans		*462	2,125	4,526
Christopher Robin	1,560	2,442	5,355	11,509
The Spy Who Dumped Me	234	542	1,561	4,222
The Darkest Minds	130	244	579	1,777
Eighth Grade (1K expansion)	494	508	720	936
Death of A Nation	148	194	375	1,239
The Meg	1,539	2,944	6,723	16,202
Slender Man	177	418	1,091	3,737
BlackkKlansman	432	682	1,934	5,017
Dog Days (Wed)	115	631	1,536	1,212
Crazy Rich Asians (Wed)	3,651	5,742	20,173	20,102
Alpha	181	283	943	2,069
Mile 22	282	519	1,833	5,200
Happytime Murders	382	*488	1,954	5,602
A.X.L.	32	*60	310	911
Kin	21	141	263	741
Operation Finale (Wed)	415	2,083	4,879	3,915
Searching	303	588	1,194	2,862
The Nun	2,082	5,938	13,806	28,881
Peppermint	286	863	2,508	4,441
God Bless The Broken Road	6	33	152	282
Predator	1,295	2,476	4,545	13,063
A Simple Favor	564	2,126	4,410	10,381
White Boy Rick	136	567	1,458	4,587
Unbroken 2	88	180	360	659
House With Clocks	897	1,469	3,607	8,074
Fahrenheit 11/9	164	281	713	1,715
Life Itself	79	162	394	953
Assassination Nation		36	94	382
Night School	1,045	1,756	3,566
Smallfoot	734	1,261	2,448
Hellfest	195	304	661
Little Women		65	134
Venom	13,602	13,818	20,867	31,569
A Star Is Born	9,115	11,383	22,641	21,501
First Man	654	909	3,610	7,586
Goosebumps 2	300	631	1,733	3,615
Bad Times at the El Royale	264	481	1,257	3,350
Halloween	9,563	12,890	21,600	36,126
The Hate U Give (2K expansion)	1,026	1,542	1,559	2,055
Hunter Killer	91	368	1,062	2,726
Indivisible	33	89	204	440
Bohemian Rhapsody	7,255	9,026	12,546	26,476
Nutcracker	1,659	1,949	2,567	5,518
Nobody's Fool	436	900	1,719	4,437
The Grinch	3,580	4,860	10,092	17,046
Spider's Web	286	718	1,735	3,554
Overlord	299	604	1,599	4,522
Fantastic Beasts	8,956	14,238	21,861	31,880
Widows	310	868	2,219	4,179
Instant Family	230	565	1,325	2,584
Ralph 2 (Wed)	7,005	12,131	19,183	15,559
Creed II (Wed)	6,712	12,083	15,354	15,870
Robin Hood (Wed)	1,602	1,846	2,621	2,632
Green Book (Wed) (1K expansion)	387	922	1,701	2,268
Possession of Hannah Grace	105	285	893	3,053
Mortal Engines	465	785	1,504	3,475
The Mule	791	1,779	3,882	6,235
Spider-Verse	3,715	5,208	9,858	19,972
Once Upon A Deadpool (Wed)	1,732	3,402	3,621	2,310
Mary Poppins (Wed)	7,713	9,137	16,304
Aquaman	8,502	9,671	15,063
Bumblebee	1,553	1,817	3,157
Second Act	353	611	1,204
Marwen	299	403	658
Escape Room	111	368	1,543	7,297
Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200
Replicas	21	133	336
Upside	394	1,431	3,669
*4pm-12am



Dogs Way Home	259	623	1,516
On the Basis (2K expansion)	537	1,043	2,200
Replicas	21	133	336
Upside	394	1,431	3,669

 

Dog comps:

410% of Show Dogs' Wednesday: 24.7M

23% of Hotel Transylvania 3's: 10.1M

42% of House w/ Clock's: 11.2M

62% of Smallfoot's: 14.3M

87% of Goosebumps 2's: 13.8M

59% of Nutcracker's: 12M

15% of Grinch's: 10.1M

114% of Instant Family's: 16.6M

 

Basis comps:

305% of Eighth Grade's (1K expansion): 8.7M

141% of Hate U Give's (2K expansion): 10.7M

 

Replicas comps:

64% of Upgrade's: 3M

65% of Hotel Artemis': 2.1M

140% of Unfriended 2's: 5.1M

128% of Kin's: 3.9M

32% of Hunter Killer's: 2.1M

 

Upside comps:

125% of Blockers': 25.7M

83% of I Feel Pretty's: 13.3M

122% of Life of the Party's: 21.8M

112% of Book Club's: 15.2M

103% of Night School's: 28.1M

213% of Nobody's Fool's: 29.3M

305% of Second Act's (Xmas release): 19.8M

 

I feel like Upside might break Aquabrah's streak tbh

[NamakFiskKa]

3 hours ago, Manny G said:

Nope what? Higher or lower. I think that $120M-$160M is actually a great range. I’m pegging it at $145M

Nope

[MattW]

12 hours ago, Porthos said:

Captain Marvel Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-57 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	0	69	7855	9548	17.73%

 

Total Showings Added Today:    6

Total Seats Added Today:       844 

Total Seats Sold Today:          195

 

.3254x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after two days of pre-sales.

.8611x as many tickets sold as Black Panther after eight days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first eight days of pre-sales for BP]

.9889x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 after seven-plus days of pre-sales [I do not have info for the first seven days of pre-sales for DP2] 

.6066x as many tickets sold as Solo after two days of pre-sales. 

2.1845x as many tickets sold as JW:FK after two days of pre-sales.
2.1005x as many tickers sold as FB2 after two-plus days of pre-sales.

 

===

 

Day Two Comps:

 

IW:      541 tickets sold [1 sellout  | 5297/10500 seats left   | 45.83% sold]

Solo:   161 tickets sold [0 sellouts | 6557/9346 seats left     | 29.86% sold]

JW:FK: 180 tickets sold [0 sellouts | 9338/10113 seats left   |   7.66% sold]

FB2:    150 tickets sold [0 sellouts | 12571/13377 seats left |   6.03% sold]

 

Even if there's as much presale demand as IW (unlikely) that would already be very strong sales.  But compared to Black Panther and DP2 is just incredible. Who knew the Sacramento area was full of Captain marvel stans.

[fabiopazzo2]

3 hours ago, NamakFiskKa said:

Nope

Nope is dope

Edited January 10, 2019 by fabiopazzo2

[DAJK]

Dogs Way Home getting decent reviews so far. Hopefully the openers (and OTBOS) can combine for 40-45M this weekend but that’s a bit optimistic.

[el sid]

Pulse always 10:35-10:49 EST (my normal counting time, I'm just too late with reporting):

The Upside: surprisingly well 130/15 minutes - the problem with comparisons with Night School is that I counted only 5 minutes back then where Night School had 61 sold tickets in five minutes, this time it were ca. 12 minutes real time which would mean that The Upside is only very slightly behind; other comparisons would be The Mule which had 100/15 minutes and it's also doing (a lot) better than e.g. Mortal Engines which had 33/15, both same time and day

On The Basis Of Sex: 47/15
A Dog's Way Home: 43/15
Replicas: terrible 6/15
 

And MT:

#1 Aquaman 11%
#2 The Upside 7.2%
#3 A Dog's Way Home 7.1%
#4 Spider-Man 6.1%
#5 OTBOS 6%

Edited January 10, 2019 by el sid

[Deep Wang]

35 minutes ago, DAJK said:

Dogs Way Home getting decent reviews so far. Hopefully the openers (and OTBOS) can combine for 40-45M this weekend but that’s a bit optimistic.

Was just talking to @Telemachos so I read that as Dongs Way Home 🤔

[Deep Wang]

Also, I may have secured more frequent updates?  Don't want to get anyone hopes up, but possibly bi-weekly.