The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

So, if you use IW, that had a true Friday of $67.3M with presales prior of $33M for a 2.04 multiplier on the day.  It might be safer to make that the "floor" on the day for CM, so $34.68M true Friday could be the floor (okay, that seems low)...maybe a split between the two for $38.5M true Friday ish...

 

Or did I do all this math wrong?:)  (EDIT - I did, and I changed it - way to use $14 instead of $17 fat fingers:)

 

Edited March 8, 2019 by TwoMisfits

[Porthos]

Not sure if it's been mentioned or not, but listings for Shazam! have started to pop up for Sacramento.

 

Not for sale yet, though and only at a couple of Regal theaters.

 

As a side note, already seeing a stronger 3D:2D split for Shazam! than I did for Captain Marvel.

Edited March 8, 2019 by Porthos

[poweranimals]

Is it normal for the MT numbers to decline on the Friday after the Thursday night a movie releases?

[LookingforMrGoodbar]

There will be a Fandango Early Access for Shazam on March 23rd. Plays at 4pm & 7pm that Saturday. 

 

Thursday opening shows will begin at 4. I think tickets go on sale this Tuesday or Wednesday. 

Edited March 9, 2019 by LookingforMrGoodbar

[TalismanRing]

2 minutes ago, LookingforMrGoodbar said:

There will be a Fandango Early Access for Shazam on March 23rd. Plays at 4pm & 7pm that Saturday. 

 

Thursday opening shows will begin at 4. I think tickets go on sale this Tuesday or Wednesday. 

   OK, that's going to be a bitch for comps (as if the early shows weren't enough) at least to other CBMs.   Teen Titans is about it and that's an animated  summer release
 

[ZeeSoh]

4 hours ago, LookingforMrGoodbar said:

There will be a Fandango Early Access for Shazam on March 23rd. Plays at 4pm & 7pm that Saturday. 

 

Thursday opening shows will begin at 4. I think tickets go on sale this Tuesday or Wednesday. 

At what point do we start considering Thursday as an OD rather than “previews”?

[excel1]

42 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

At what point do we start considering Thursday as an OD rather than “previews”?

I miss true midnights and would love for them to count all Thursday grosses to Friday. Only MAN OF STEEL had the previews separated from the opening weekend gross, clear anti dc bias obv

[charlie Jatinder]

On 3/8/2019 at 9:14 PM, Charlie Jatinder said:

CM 17M

Sat 20M

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, ZeeSoh said:

At what point do we start considering Thursday as an OD rather than “previews”?

Thursday previews will start Wednesday midnight and still get rolled into Friday. Search your feelings, you know it to be true.

[Porthos]

3 hours ago, ZeeSoh said:

At what point do we start considering Thursday as an OD rather than “previews”?

When the studios do, unfortunately. 

[Barnack]

2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

When the studios do, unfortunately. 

I would say it is box office mojo that kind of decide no ?

 

Just make that thought experience, the studios would call it OD, say it on their twitter account, etc... but not box office mojo or the-numbers.com or anyone else.....

 

Would we go with the studio way to count or the box office mojo way to count ?

[Porthos]

8 minutes ago, Barnack said:

I would say it is box office mojo that kind of decide no ?

 

Just make that thought experience, the studios would call it OD, say it on their twitter account, etc... but not box office mojo or the-numbers.com or anyone else.....

 

Would we go with the studio way to count or the box office mojo way to count ?

I suppose that's an interesting question.  I think it might come down to what the trades report, as everyone else usually follows their cue.

 

Don't really know what would happen of Mojo, the-numbers, boxoffice, et all broke en masse with the trades and studios.

 

I suppose we would follow the lead of Mojo and the other websites.  But it'd be hella messy, and lead to a lot of whining and moaning on this forum.

 

Well, more whining and moaning.

 

Now if the trades followed suit, I don't think anyone else would have much choice in the matter.  Studios and wikipedia could say one thing if they like.  But if everyone is ignoring them, it kinda becomes a moot point, I would think.

[Barnack]

12 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I suppose we would follow the lead of Mojo and the other websites.  But it'd be hella messy, and lead to a lot of whining and moaning on this forum.

 

Well, more whining and moaning

what would make the messy and whining part would not be OD or thursday preview, I doubt many care about OD numbers, it would be that anything before Friday night not counting (like the logic would obviously say so) into the OW.

[Shawn Robbins]

On 3/7/2019 at 12:28 PM, feasby007 said:

@Shawn what's with the redesign? 

 

Also very ballsy but likely given figures we've seen in this thread. 

 

Soooo when's this superhero fatigue supposed to happen?

Our parent company is going through a big rebrand of Boxoffice and the website/logo were the first big step. It's tied to the company/magazine's 100th anniversary coming up in 2020. I'm told there's more to come on the website in the months ahead.

 

Also, yeah -- the data was just getting too crazy to ignore, but I wanted to emphasize the $150m figure in our range because of how unpredictable movies get at this level. I'm pushing more and more toward the ranges because as time goes on, it seems a little silly to pin a "final forecast" down to such a specific number. To quote David Bowie's Tesla in The Prestige, "exact science is not an exact science."

[Stewart]

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Our parent company is going through a big rebrand of Boxoffice and the website/logo were the first big step. It's tied to the company/magazine's 100th anniversary coming up in 2020. I'm told there's more to come on the website in the months ahead.

Awesome! Can't believe the company's been at it for almost 100 years now! Exciting to see what other updates are ahead  

Does this mean BOT is headed for change too, or will you keep that the same?

6 minutes ago, Shawn said:

Also, yeah -- the data was just getting too crazy to ignore, but I wanted to emphasise the $150m figure in our range because of unpredictable movies get at this level. I'm pushing more and more toward the ranges because as time goes on, it seems a little silly to pin a "final forecast" down to such a specific number. To quote David Bowie's Tesla in The Prestige, "exact science is not an exact science."

Yeah it's looking more like $150-155m now, but it admittedly has been unusually frontloaded (but not unexpected given Infinity War and the state of the MCU). I think it's always good to give ranges, it's just a shame that what people seem to focus on is the individual number.

[Nova]

@Shawn when you give Detective Pikachu’s long range tracking numbers, make sure to specify that the numbers for it are so large that you’re actually giving out the preview/OD numbers. We don’t want any confusion. Thanks! 

[Shawn Robbins]

26 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Awesome! Can't believe the company's been at it for almost 100 years now! Exciting to see what other updates are ahead  

Does this mean BOT is headed for change too, or will you keep that the same?

No real plans at the moment, but you never know... if there's a big demand for a change in look/feel around the forums, it's always worth considering. (We have far fewer resources than Boxoffice though, heh.)

26 minutes ago, feasby007 said:

Yeah it's looking more like $150-155m now, but it admittedly has been unusually frontloaded (but not unexpected given Infinity War and the state of the MCU). I think it's always good to give ranges, it's just a shame that what people seem to focus on is the individual number.

Agreed. I think it's borne out of the prediction culture that came about because of Mojo's Derby nearly 20 years ago (!!!), and a lot of us from that generation adopted it. But from an analytical standpoint, it doesn't make a lot of sense unless it's a "worst case scenario" type of context -- especially for new releases.

[Shawn Robbins]

13 minutes ago, Nova said:

@Shawn when you give Detective Pikachu’s long range tracking numbers, make sure to specify that the numbers for it are so large that you’re actually giving out the preview/OD numbers. We don’t want any confusion. Thanks! 

Oh, it'll be too big of a number to even fit in the chart! I'm thinking we might just skip it because we all know it's the presumed 2019 champion. The ultimate Disney upsetter. 

[grim22]

20 hours ago, Porthos said:

I suppose that's an interesting question.  I think it might come down to what the trades report, as everyone else usually follows their cue.

 

Don't really know what would happen of Mojo, the-numbers, boxoffice, et all broke en masse with the trades and studios.

 

I suppose we would follow the lead of Mojo and the other websites.  But it'd be hella messy, and lead to a lot of whining and moaning on this forum.

 

Well, more whining and moaning.

 

Now if the trades followed suit, I don't think anyone else would have much choice in the matter.  Studios and wikipedia could say one thing if they like.  But if everyone is ignoring them, it kinda becomes a moot point, I would think.

I remember Mojo tried to separate Oceans 8 previews into Thursday because they started early at 4 as well. But then WB shut it down and Mojo rolled it into Friday

[ZeeSoh]

BTW kudos to Boxofficepro and @Shawn for getting Captain Marvel's OW so right in your long range forecast. You guys had 160 almost 2 months before when hardly anyone saw it.