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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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The Fast and the Furiosa Sleeper Hit

The Fast and the Furiosa

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday

Blockers 504 1,106 2,931  

Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  

Upgrade 9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  

Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  

Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  

Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754

Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509

The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777

Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737

House With Clocks 897 1,469 3,607 8,074

Smallfoot 734 1,261 2,448  

Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350

The Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046
Second Act 353 611 1,204  

Dogs Way Home 259 623 1,516 3,257

Upside 394 1,431 3,669 8,602

Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320
How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313

Greta 120 287 824 1,962

Captive State 60      
Five Feet Apart 613      
Wonder Park 607      

 

Captive State comps:

667% of Upgrade (31.3M)

231% of Hotel Artemis (7.5M)

23% of El Royale (1.6M)

50% of Greta (2.2M)

 

Kinda hard to find good comps for this, but I guess the Greta comp works best?

 

Five Feet Apart comps:

122% of Blockers (25M)

159% of Truth or Dare (29.7M)

20% of Ocean's 8 (8.5M)

471% of Darkest Minds (27.5M)

346% of Slender Man (39.4M)

174% of Second Act (11.3M)

156% of The Upside (31.7M)

 

Another one that's hard to find good comps on (YA movies just aren't a thing anymore), but I guess it could surprise in the 20s?

 

Wonder Park comps:

35% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (15.4M)

39% of Christopher Robin (9.7M)

68% of House w/ Clock (18.2M)

83% of Smallfoot (19.2M)

17% of The Grinch (11.6M)

237% of A Dog's Way Home (26.6M)

24% of Lego Movie 2 (8.2M)

16% of Dragon 3 (9.1M)

 

Everything seems to be pointing to the teens here

Maybe Love, Simon for FFA?

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
30 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:
Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
Blockers 504 1,106 2,931  
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Upgrade 9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
House With Clocks 897 1,469 3,607 8,074
Smallfoot 734 1,261 2,448  
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350
The Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046
Second Act 353 611 1,204  
Dogs Way Home 259 623 1,516 3,257
Upside 394 1,431 3,669 8,602
Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320
How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313
Greta 120 287 824 1,962
Captive State 60      
Five Feet Apart 613      
Wonder Park 607      

 

Captive State comps:

667% of Upgrade (31.3M)

231% of Hotel Artemis (7.5M)

23% of El Royale (1.6M)

50% of Greta (2.2M)

 

Kinda hard to find good comps for this, but I guess the Greta comp works best?

 

Five Feet Apart comps:

122% of Blockers (25M)

159% of Truth or Dare (29.7M)

20% of Ocean's 8 (8.5M)

471% of Darkest Minds (27.5M)

346% of Slender Man (39.4M)

174% of Second Act (11.3M)

156% of The Upside (31.7M)

 

Another one that's hard to find good comps on (YA movies just aren't a thing anymore), but I guess it could surprise in the 20s?

 

Wonder Park comps:

35% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (15.4M)

39% of Christopher Robin (9.7M)

68% of House w/ Clock (18.2M)

83% of Smallfoot (19.2M)

17% of The Grinch (11.6M)

237% of A Dog's Way Home (26.6M)

24% of Lego Movie 2 (8.2M)

16% of Dragon 3 (9.1M)

 

Everything seems to be pointing to the teens here

Both Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart have/had huge Atom deals that would skew presales to that service and off Facebook...so both movies might overperform what a Fandango-only presale look might indicate...

 

If I remember, Smallfoot had a similar deal, so it might be the best comp for WP...5FA, I got nothing:)...

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Both Wonder Park and Five Feet Apart have/had huge Atom deals that would skew presales to that service and off Facebook...so both movies might overperform what a Fandango-only presale look might indicate...

 

If I remember, Smallfoot had a similar deal, so it might be the best comp for WP...5FA, I got nothing:)...

I know you keep bringing up "Atom deals" and how they skew everything. And while I'm not going to say it doesn't play a tiny part, I feel like you overestimate just how much impact they cause. Are these deals really that well-known or heavily used by people as you think?

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)
23 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I know you keep bringing up "Atom deals" and how they skew everything. And while I'm not going to say it doesn't play a tiny part, I feel like you overestimate just how much impact they cause. Are these deals really that well-known or heavily used by people as you think?

Wonder Park's deal is literally affiliated with Amazon (it's an Atom/Amazon deal)...it's a top banner deal on both...

 

If you want an effect, I'll give the Saturday presales between my 2 locals - one Atom and one not, and neither AMC (Cinemark vs Regal), so no prebuy A-List subscriber effect...same amount of showings and neither really sells more or less for animateds...

 

(Regal) Atom theater tickets sold - 53, 46, 48, 9, 0 for 156 seats sold for Saturday

(Cinemark) Not Atom theater tickets sold - 17 (and this is a $5 show - other theater does not have a discount show), 3, 0, 0, 0 for 20 seats sold for Saturday

 

Now multiply that over the number of theaters that sell on Atom, and you get an enormous discrepancy when you look at both what a single theater performance might indicate and what a Fandango-only presale look might indicate...

 

I mean, heck, the single Atom local 12 theater has 1/4 the amount of all Fandango presales yesterday (and it's not like there were more than 100 total on Fandango in all the days before yesterday)...

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Sheikh Indie Sensation

Sheikh

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

I don't have numbers for Love, Simon.

Love, Simon was 863 Monday, 1256 Tuesday, 2907 Wednesday.

 

Also of note, Five Feet Apart seems to have a fan event on Wednesday 13th March at select locations, which could skew things.

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TwoMisfits Global Phenomenon

TwoMisfits

Posted
Posted (edited)

1st local set (Cinemark) for this weekend...(Non-Atom)

 

NEW FILMS

Wonder Park gets almost TWO screens and 11 showings

Five Feet Apart gets 1 screen and 5 showings

Captive State gets 1 screen and 5 showings

2 Foreign Films get 1ish screen total (4 and 2 showings)

 

HOLDOVERS

CM drops from 7 screens and 34 showings to 4 screens and 19 showings

Madea keeps 1 screen and 5 showings

HHTYD keeps 1 screen and 5 showings

Lego 2 keeps 1/2 screen and 3 showings

 

This theater cleared out for CM, so it's not a surprise CM had to take the hit for booking the new movies, b/c there was nothing else to do so...(okay Green Book gave away its 1/2 screen and 2 showings, but that was the only drop, other that rotating out foreign films)...

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dakus Indie Sensation

dakus

Posted
Posted
3 hours ago, Sheikh said:

Love, Simon was 863 Monday, 1256 Tuesday, 2907 Wednesday.

 

Also of note, Five Feet Apart seems to have a fan event on Wednesday 13th March at select locations, which could skew things.

Just to confirm, having a Wednesday fan event would potentially skew FFA to have larger Mon-Wed numbers right?

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Sheikh Indie Sensation

Sheikh

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, dakus said:

Just to confirm, having a Wednesday fan event would potentially skew FFA to have larger Mon-Wed numbers right?

Yes, with there being shows on Wednesday, there should be more sales Mon-Wed, with there being a big jump on Wednesday. We've seen this before with other movies that have had Wednesday shows.

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DAJK Global Phenomenon

DAJK

Posted
Posted
38 minutes ago, Slave Animal Rights said:

what is left???  

what can we predict that movie-insiders cant?

what control do we have??

 

I guess we could evolve to become prophets and out-prophesize what movie-insiders and test audiences already know?

 

i'm sorry but I am so legitimately confused

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dxmatrixdt Summer Tentpole

dxmatrixdt

Posted
Posted
23 minutes ago, DAJK said:

i'm sorry but I am so legitimately confused

what is left for the working world of box-office-theory.  seems predix can get within 90% of range, and movie-insiders probably are better forecasters then us.

 

so what is left with the game?  how do we win? 

I guess we can become prophets? 

anticipate public relations with movies beyond all the experts

 

if we become super-human, we stay un-defeatable

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday

Love, Simon 863 1,256 2,907  
Blockers 504 1,106 2,931  
Truth Or Dare 385 760 2,133  
Upgrade 9 119 522  
Adrift 63 308 1,268  
Oceans 8 3,009 4,372 11,114  
Hotel Artemis 26 166 520  
Hotel Transylvania 3 1,753 2,674 6,605 14,754

Unfriended   71 240 975
Christopher Robin 1,560 2,442 5,355 11,509
The Darkest Minds 130 244 579 1,777
Slender Man 177 418 1,091 3,737
House With Clocks 897 1,469 3,607 8,074
Smallfoot 734 1,261 2,448  
Bad Times at the El Royale 264 481 1,257 3,350
The Grinch 3,580 4,860 10,092 17,046
Second Act 353 611 1,204  
Dogs Way Home 259 623 1,516 3,257
Upside 394 1,431 3,669 8,602
Lego Movie 2 2,552 4,130 8,601 13,320
How to Train Your Dragon 3 3,724 6,674 12,935 21,313
Greta 120 287 824 1,962
Captive State 60 172    
Five Feet Apart 613 1,053    
Wonder Park 607 988    

 

Captive State comps:

144% of Upgrade (6.7M)

104% of Hotel Artemis (3.3M)

242% of Unfriended 2 (8.8M)

36% of El Royale (2.5M)

60% of Greta (2.7M)

 

Five Feet Apart comps:

84% of Love, Simon (9.8M)

95% of Blockers (19.6M)

138% of Truth or Dare (25.9M)

24% of Ocean's 8 (10M)

431% of Darkest Minds (25.2M)

251% of Slender Man (28.6M)

172% of Second Act (11.2M)

73% of The Upside (15M)

 

Wonder Park comps:

37% of Hotel Transylvania 3 (16.3M)

40% of Christopher Robin (9.9M)

67% of House w/ Clock (17.9M)

78% of Smallfoot (18M)

20% of The Grinch (13.7M)

158% of A Dog's Way Home (17.8M)

24% of Lego Movie 2 (8.2M)

15% of Dragon 3 (8.1M)

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

Movie/Date Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday
Us 1,070 1,063          
  11 days 10 days          
               
Dumbo 777 685          
  18 days 17 days          

 

Us

From Day 14-Day 10

129% of Glass (52M using 3-Day, 59.9M using 4-Day)

 

Dumbo

Day 18-Day 17

174% of Dragon 3 (95.8M)

 

Cumulative by Day 17

45% of Dragon 3 (24.5M) (Note Dragon 3 had 17 days more presales)

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Eric Duncan Global Phenomenon

Eric Duncan

Posted
Posted

And so it begins...

  

2019-03-13 11:00:00	818	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-03-13 11:00:00	782	Fandango Early Access Shazam!
2019-03-13 11:00:00	104	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-03-13 11:00:00	80	Captain Marvel 3D
2019-03-13 11:00:00	75	Captain Marvel The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-13 11:00:00	56	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
2019-03-13 11:00:00	46	The Lego Movie 2 The Second Part
2019-03-13 11:00:00	44	Us (2019)
2019-03-13 11:00:00	42	Wonder Park
2019-03-13 11:00:00	35	Shazam!
2019-03-13 11:00:00	32	Shazam! The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-03-13 11:00:00	30	Five Feet Apart
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