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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Presales for US are insane. Much higher than A Quiet Place.

 

Spoiler

04/04/2018 06:00  88  A Quiet Place
04/04/2018 05:00  56  A Quiet Place
04/04/2018 04:00  22  A Quiet Place
04/04/2018 03:00  55  A Quiet Place
04/04/2018 02:00  70  A Quiet Place
04/04/2018 01:00  93  A Quiet Place
04/04/2018 00:00  176  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 23:00  297  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 22:00  289  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 21:00  472  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 20:00  383  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 19:00  317  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 18:00  268  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 17:00  186  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 16:00  175  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 15:00  160  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 14:00  173  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 13:00  156  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 12:00  152  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 11:00  140  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 10:00  148  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 09:00  147  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 08:00  118  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 07:00  64  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 06:00  39  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 05:00  18  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 04:00  3  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 03:00  16  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 02:00  13  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 01:00  51  A Quiet Place
03/04/2018 00:00  89  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 23:00  127  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 22:00  192  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 21:00  228  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 20:00  186  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 19:00  203  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 18:00  157  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 17:00  122  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 16:00  91  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 15:00  106  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 14:00  106  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 13:00  82  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 12:00  99  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 11:00  89  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 10:00  84  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 09:00  68  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 08:00  52  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 07:00  26  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 06:00  9  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 05:00  5  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 04:00  1  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 03:00  2  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 02:00  2  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 01:00  17  A Quiet Place
02/04/2018 00:00  32  A Quiet Place

 

I'm seeing close to $80m OW. Could it reach $100m OW?

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2 hours ago, Spaghetti said:

US is currently #2 on Fandango.

  

A QUIET PLACE didn't show up in the top 5 until Tuesday. 

And the previous weekends had similar BO (although the #5 last weekend made less than the #5 before AQP release).

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2019-03-19 02:00:33.189059 UTC
1	45.4%	Captain Marvel
2	8.9%	Wonder Park
3	7.2%	Five Feet Apart
4	6.7%	Us
5	6.5%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

2019-03-19 01:00:27.585117 UTC
1	45.4%	Captain Marvel
2	8.9%	Wonder Park
3	7.2%	Five Feet Apart
4	6.7%	Us
5	6.5%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

2019-03-19 00:00:28.163353 UTC
1	47.1%	Captain Marvel
2	8.5%	Wonder Park
3	6.5%	Us
4	6.4%	Five Feet Apart
5	6.1%	How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World

 

US managed to get ahead of FFA at one point but seems comfortably ahead of Dragon now. Should get to #2 sometime tomorrow.

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A Quiet Place is a really bad comp, based on how few pre-sales tickets there were, how it was a truly original horror, not part of what I see as a burgeoning Jordan Peele brand (it has been marketed extensively as such).  Much better to look at Glass, The Nun, and Halloween, which all contain some franchise backing in order to generate higher pre-sales.  Just realized I didn't update on the Sunday numbers:

 

  Tickets Sold
Pre Sales Day Us Glass Halloween The Nun
-11 1127 718 1577 413
-10 1107 867 1728 499
-9 1516 722 2464 630
-8 1775 568 2198 700
-7 1292 653 1730 775
-6 1267 1315 1281 631
-5 3747 3191 3842 786
Mon-Sun Total 11831 8034 14820 4434
Ratio   1.4726 0.79831 2.6682
OW   40.3 76.2 53.8
Projected OW   59.35 60.83

143.55

 

I'll get some better cumulative tickets sold numbers for tomorrow, as well as thursday presales, Us is at 7851 with 3 hours to go today, Halloween did 9678 on its Monday.  If the cumulative presales prior to this week are what I expect them to be, then Us has a big chance to keep pace with Haloween.  Having both comps currently near 60, at the least, is very promising.

 

The chances of it hitting the last horror comp are slim and Nun.

Edited by EconomySize
Sunday total, not saturday
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6 hours ago, That One Guy said:

Been on the 100M OW train for a while but it’s now time to make that my official prediction

 

That would be insane. If not for IT's phenomenal success, it also would be unprecedented.

 

But even if it "only" opens to 50M, that number would be insane already for an original horror film whos premise is straight-up R-Rated. The horror genre is probably enjoying one of the most prosperous phases in the history of cinema.

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7 hours ago, tonytr87 said:

If Us pans out we could be looking at another Spielberg/Nolan...Peele could be a director who can sell a movie on his name. 

Fixed. I'm definitely seeing this cause Peele movie first, though Lupita and Winston are huge bonus. :)

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Fandango App Monday Tues Wed Thursday
Deadpool 2 23,134 28,896 41,212  

Venom 13,602 13,818 20,867 31,569

Halloween 9,563 12,890 21,600 36,126

Glass 3,106 3,978 6,478 17,810

Us 10,742      

 

46% of Deadpool 2 (58.3M)

79% of Venom (63.4M)

112% of Halloween (85.6M)

346% of Glass (139.5M)

 

@Jayhawk yep, Us beat Halloween. It's also way above every other horror comp I have available. Don't like doing this or else I jinx myself, but 60M seems like the floor here

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3 hours ago, Valonqar said:

Fixed. I'm definitely seeing this cause Peele movie first, though Lupita and Winston are huge bonus. :)

LOL, but I wasn't necessarily talking right now. I was talking the last forty years or so. Burton used to be one of those guys, and he's still a name that a lot of regular people know. As for Shyamalan, same thing, although I'm not convinced his days are over.

Edited by tonytr87
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16 minutes ago, tonytr87 said:

LOL, but I wasn't necessarily talking right now. I was talking the last forty years or so. Burton used to be one of those guys, and he's still a name that a lot of regular people know. As for Shyamalan, same thing, although I'm not convinced his days are over.

ah, OK. Not familiar with old Burton and MSN squandered his goodwill real fast from what I've gathered. 

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49 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

ah, OK. Not familiar with old Burton and MSN squandered his goodwill real fast from what I've gathered. 

 

He did, but I'm not convinced his name wasn't a big part of The Visit and Split's success. 

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Pulse today 8:35-8:49 EST:
 

Us: 128/15 minutes – yesterday it were 64/15 (so here too ca. on par with Halloween which had 71/15 on Monday at that time), up exactly 100% from yesterday; Halloween had on Tuesday at that time 112/15, Glass 31/15 and Happy Death Day 2U 17/15 (and that was a Wednesday release).
 

And Pulse today 10:35-10:49 EST:

Us: 197/15 minutes – yesterday it were 122/15, up 62%; Glass (where I have no Tuesday numbers) had 156/15 on Wednesday at that time and Happy Death Day 2U on Tuesday at that time 17/15. Even if Us manages it to only jump 50% from Tuesday to Wednesday (and most movies rather double their sales) it would have twice the presale numbers of Glass (40.3M OW)...

→ at both counting times today huge numbers for Us. So far it's indeed looking like 80M OW are reachable with the only problem that Us is probably a bit more frontloaded than Glass or Halloween but I'm not sure. But therefor its WOM could be better (at least compared to the WOM of Glass) and who says that its presales will slow down from now on...

Edited by el sid
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