The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Pikachu doesn't have IMAX at all...at least right now. Endgame's entirely shot with IMAX cameras, so IMAX probably wanted to push that movie for a long time. I could see a scenario though where Pikachu and Endgame share on Pikachu's first week. When Grinch and Overlord came out on the same day, the former had IMAX during the day, while the latter had it during the night.

Correct me if I am wrong, I think Disney has deal with Imax to show their for four weeks. 🤔🤔

[Matthew]

As per Imax website this are upcoming Imax releases :

 

Hellboy

 

Penguins

 

La llorona 

 

Endgame 

 

John Wick 3

 

Aladdin 

 

Godzilla  2

 

Dark Phoenix 

 

Men In Black International 

 

Toy Story 4

 

Spiderman Far from Home 

 

Lion King 

 

Joker

 

Frozen 2

 

[Porthos]

11 minutes ago, Matthew said:

As per Imax website this are upcoming Imax releases :

Thanks for that. 👍

 

Of course, IMAX isn't the only PLF game in town, but it's good to get confirmation that Pikachu isn't getting an IMAX release.  At least it doesn't appear to be.

Edited April 6, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

1 hour ago, CoolEric258 said:

Pikachu doesn't have IMAX at all...at least right now. Endgame's entirely shot with IMAX cameras, so IMAX probably wanted to push that movie for a long time. I could see a scenario though where Pikachu and Endgame share on Pikachu's first week. When Grinch and Overlord came out on the same day, the former had IMAX during the day, while the latter had it during the night.

Pikachu has never been scheduled for an IMAX release. The tentative IMAX first half 2019 schedule announced Jul 30 went AEG->Ad Astra->G:KotM, and as Matthew posted the current schedule goes AEG->JW3->Aladdin->G:KotM.      

 

IW didn’t give up its IMAX until weekend 4 either.    

 

I checked earlier because I can’t see it with my stepdad until May 13 or later, was relieved to see there’d still be IMAX available.

Edited April 6, 2019 by Thanos Legion

[Ledmonkey96]

Added up all the showings over the weekend and came out to a total of 2,533 tickets sold over the weekend out of a total of 4,303. So 58.8% of all tickets over the weekend are sold. It should be noted that that selling to 0 tickets remaining is impossible due to saved seats in case someone's seats break and we can't fix them in time. Though this normally doesn't make up more than 5% of a theater.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

Added up all the showings over the weekend and came out to a total of 2,533 tickets sold over the weekend out of a total of 4,303. So 58.8% of all tickets over the weekend are sold. It should be noted that that selling to 0 tickets remaining is impossible due to saved seats in case someone's seats break and we can't fix them in time. Though this normally doesn't make up more than 5% of a theater.

I assume you mean for Endgame? How many showtimes and how many screens at your theater?

[Ledmonkey96]

26 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

I assume you mean for Endgame? How many showtimes and how many screens at your theater?

Ya Endgame.

 

12 shows Thursday, 9 on Friday, 10 on Saturday and Sunday.

10 unique theaters on Thursday, 3 on Fri/Sat/Sun

2 of those 41 are rented out theaters.

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-20 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	7	221	6026	23024	73.83%

 

Total Sellouts Removed Today:           2

Total Showings Added Today:             2

Total Seats Added Today:               119

Total Seats Sold Today:                  350

 

Infinity War Comps:

2.5535x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after four day of pre−sales.
2.0329x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 20 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.0983x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
0.9731x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally, unless specifically noted otherwise.

 

IW (day 4):          195 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/106 showings  | 4838/10500 seats left  | 53.92% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 4):  254 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/221 showings | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 4): 220 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/195 showings | 3558/16368 seats left  | 78.26% sold]

----

IW (T-20):    7112 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/116 showings    | 4013/11125 seats left  | 63.93% sold]  

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   14458 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/221 showings   | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

EG (exact**):  12810 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/195 showings   | 3558/16368 seats left  | 78.26% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

8.8670x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel after three days of pre−sales.
5.0230x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 20 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.6107x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.
 

CM (day 4):       64 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/81 showings  |  8691/10608 seats left | 18.07% sold]

CM (T-20) :  3384 tickets sold so far   [2 sellouts/83 showings   | 7320/10704 seats left  | 31.61% sold]

CM (final):  10553 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/92 showings    | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:            16998 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/221 showings | 6026/23024 seats left  | 73.83% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps:

Spoiler

 

4.7732x as many tickets sold as Solo after three days of pre−sales.
1.7841x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.
1.7777x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.
2.4975x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.
2.3215x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

Solo (day 4):  116 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/87 showings    |  6319/9348 seats left   | 32.40% sold]

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   14458 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/221 showings   | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 23 days before release)

Fri: 1 sellouts/279 showings (+1/+29) [IW: 0/214]

Sat: 0 sellouts/277 showings (nc/+27) [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 0 sellout/267 showings (nc/+37) [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  7/221 (-2/+2)  [2D: 7/177 (-1/+2) | 3D: 0/44 (-1/nc)]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 192 screens (+2) [IW: 82 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:       7* [-2] [IW: 1]

90-95%: 40  [+2} [IW: 11]

80-89%: 51 [+1]  [IW: 9]

70-79%: 32 [+3]  [IW: 18]

60-69%: 23 [-1]   [IW: 17]

50-59%: 16 [+4]  [IW: 7]

40-49%:   4 [-4]   [IW: 4]

30-39%:   5 [+2]  [IW: 7]

20-29%:   5 [-1]   [IW: 3]

10-19%:   7 [+3]  [IW: 5]

0-9%:       4 [-5]   [IW: 0]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

[XXR vs XXR]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

IW (day 4):          195 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/106 showings  | 4838/10500 seats left  | 53.92% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 4):  254 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/221 showings | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 4): 220 tickets sold that day [7 sellouts/195 showings | 3558/16368 seats left  | 78.26% sold]

----

IW (T-20):    7112 tickets sold so far   [1 sellout/116 showings    | 4013/11125 seats left  | 63.93% sold]  

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   14458 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/221 showings   | 4123/18581 seats left  | 77.81% sold]

EG (exact**):  12810 tickets sold so far   [7 sellouts/195 showings   | 3558/16368 seats left  | 78.26% sold]

----

Should pass IW in total tickets (exact) on Sunday? It feels like in the exact comparison, it should be able to beat IW by 30-40%.

[Porthos]

Going to go ahead and remove the "after x days of pre-sales" for Solo tomorrow as it'll be actually only 16 days from release and it's a bit silly to use it as that sort of comp.  Relatedly on Monday I'll start rolling in all the comps I have for "x days before premiere" in a new section, unless that  "T-minus" info is already in another area.  Thus Solo will return on Monday (at its T-17), and joining it will be the T-17 comps for Black Panther, Deadpool 2, Fallen Kingdom, and Crimes of Grindelwald. 

 

Will also remove the "after x days of pre-sales" for both Infinity War and Captain Marvel soon, and just stick to the T-minus and final comps.  Not sure what day that'll be.  Perhaps Monday as well.  Maybe a Tue or Wed.  But we're coming up to the point where both CM and IW would be entering their 'long tails', and if EG has a long tail, I suspect it's gonna be a rather short one.

 

...

 

That might read like a joke.  And, okay, it kinda is.   But the period of (relatively) slow sales for EG is gonna be a heck of a lot shorter then either IW or CM, as the premiere gets closer and closer.  Honestly, the only real reason EG might get slow sales is that whole blood from a stone phenomenon. 

 

Anywho, just giving a heads up on the comp changes coming.

[Porthos]

7 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

Should pass IW in total tickets (exact) on Sunday?

Sunday or Monday.  It's being helped by the fact that random shows are getting added here and there.  Still, I'd probably bet on Monday.

 

It's right now 354 tickets "behind".  IW sold 333 tickets over the next three days of pre-sales (99, 109, 116).  That'd put it 21 tickets behind on Monday. EG has still been doing better on a day-for-day basis at the exact same theaters, even if the margin has shrunk quite a bit.  Still, I'd guess it'll probably 'beat' IW by 22 tickets over the next three days.

 

[FlashMaster659]

1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Sunday or Monday.  It's being helped by the fact that random shows are getting added here and there.  Still, I'd probably bet on Monday.

 

It's right now 354 tickets "behind".  IW sold 333 tickets over the next three days of pre-sales (99, 109, 116).  That'd put it 21 tickets behind on Monday. EG has still been doing better on a day-for-day basis at the exact same theaters, even if the margin has shrunk quite a bit.  Still, I'd guess it'll probably 'beat' IW by 22 tickets over the next three days.

 

When do you think you'll start to get an idea of what the preview # could be?

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, FlashMaster659 said:

When do you think you'll start to get an idea of what the preview # could be?

 

===

 

Probably when I get a closer idea of the final screen count.  But I do think TLJ (45m) is completely toast, and it won't be close (not exactly a controversial statement, I realize). If only because my region doesn't appear to be the only one that is cramming in as many showings as possible.  Beyond that, who the hell knows. It's the one reason I'll be leery of doing a comp.  The showtimes here are utterly ridiculous, and so it might just skew absolutely everything that I had prior.

 

When it comes right down to it, the only local comp worth a damn might be Captain Marvel since my home town also crammed as many showings as possible, with Infinity War being a more distant second as a comp.  Those'll probably be the best two comps I have.

 

There's a reason why I made them their own separate comps, after all.

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Sunday or Monday.  It's being helped by the fact that random shows are getting added here and there.  Still, I'd probably bet on Monday.

 

It's right now 354 tickets "behind".  IW sold 333 tickets over the next three days of pre-sales (99, 109, 116).  That'd put it 21 tickets behind on Monday. EG has still been doing better on a day-for-day basis at the exact same theaters, even if the margin has shrunk quite a bit.  Still, I'd guess it'll probably 'beat' IW by 22 tickets over the next three days.

 

 

I was going back over some of your lead up numbers to Infinity War. Looks like it added over 40 shows to Thursday night in the final 7 days. I'm going to be extremely curious to see how much capacity can be added during that final week. Can Endgame get to 250 show times (exact)? Can it hit 20k seats sold (exact)?

It's a fun analysis and I'm glad you do it  

[Cap]

Lincoln Center - 4/5/2019 - Opening Weekend

	Sold	Available	Percentage
Thursday	3983	4887	81.50%
Friday	5275	8372	63.00%
Saturday	4585	8212	55.83%
Sunday	3985	7802	51.07%
Total	17828	29273	60.90%

 

Full Chart:

 

Spoiler

Thursday	4/3/2019	4/5/2019		Friday	4/3/2019	4/5/2019		Saturday	4/3/2019	4/5/2019		Sunday	4/3/2019	4/5/2019
		Sold	Total			Sold	Total			Sold	Total			Sold	Total
IMAX				IMAX				IMAX				IMAX
6:00 PM	Sold Out	480	480	2:30 AM	Front Row	434	480	2:30 AM	75+	349	480	2:30 AM	50+	349	480
10:15 PM	Sold Out	480	480	6:30 AM	75+	358	480	6:30 AM	75+	393	480	6:30 AM	50+	537	480
				10:30 AM	Front Row	432	480	10:30 AM	Sold Out	433	480	N/A
				2:30 PM	Front Row	443	480	2:30 PM	Front Row	447	480	2:30 PM	Front Row	449	480
				6:30 PM	Sold Out	471	480	6:30 PM	Sold Out	435	480	6:30 PM	Front Row	465	480
				10:30 PM	Sold Out	468	480	10:30 PM	Front Row	439	480	10:30 PM	75+	448	480
Dolby				Dolby				Dolby				Dolby
6:00 PM	Sold Out	289	297	2:00 AM	75+	248	297	3:00 AM	50+	103	297	3:00 AM	N/A	20	297
10:00 PM	Sold Out	289	297	7:00 AM	50+	176	297	7:00 AM	75+	191	297	7:00 AM	25+	92	297
				11:00 AM	Front Row	270	297	11:00 AM	Sold Out	286	297	11:00 AM	Front Row	246	297
				3:00 PM	Front Row	258	297	3:00 PM	Front Row	267	297	3:00 PM	Front Row	260	297
				7:00 PM	Sold Out	290	297	7:00 PM	Front Row	276	297	7:00 PM	Front Row	261	297
				11:00 PM	Sold Out	281	297	11:00 PM	Front Row	261	297	11:00 PM	50+	112	297
RealD 3D				Real D3D				Real D3D				Real D3D
6:30 PM		336	348	7:30 AM	> 5	8	348	7:30 AM	>5	12	348	7:30 AM	>5	8	362
10:30 PM		255	348	11:30 AM	25+	52	348	11:30 AM	25+	54	348	11:30 AM	25+	58	362
				3:30 PM	25+	53	348	3:30 PM	50+	60	348	3:30 PM	25+	63	362
				7:30 PM	75+	272	348	7:30 PM	50+	25	348	7:30 PM	25+	287	362
				11:30 PM	25+	41	348	11:30 PM	>5	0	348	11:30 PM	>5	41	362
Standard				Standard				Standard				Standard
6:00 PM	Front Row	340	362	12:00 AM	25+	70	173	12:00 AM	> 5	20	362	12:00 AM	>5	0	362
7:00 PM	Front Row	258	280	12:30 AM	0	13	173	8:00 AM	>5	39	362	8:00 AM	>5	11	362
7:30 PM	Front Row	199	218	1:00 AM	0	0	176	12:00 PM	50+	89	362	12:00 PM	25+	89	362
8:00 PM	Front Row	148	173	8:00 AM	> 5	13	362	4:00 PM	50+	193	362	4:00 PM	50+	130	362
8:30 PM	Front Row	150	173	12:00 PM	25+	119	362	8:00 PM	50+	213	362	8:00 PM	25+	59	362
9:00 PM	Front 2 Rows	149	176	4:00 PM	50+	204	362
9:30 PM	Front 2 Rows	177	199	8:00 PM	Front Row	301	362
11:00 PM	75+	220	316
11:30 PM	50+	130	218
12:00 AM	25+	70	173
12:30 AM	0	13	173
1:00 AM	0	0	176
TOTAL		3983	4887			5275	8372			4585	8212			3985	7802

 

 

Stray Thoughts:

• I hope those Walk Ups like 3D or movies at 3AM to 8AM, cause those are all that's available.
• Thursday's Previews / Friday will be bonkers.  Crazy frontloaded.
• There's definitely been a slow down in sales, but as @Porthos pointed out it's hard to keep up the pace of the first 48 Hours when you've already sold 60% of your seats.
• AMC 25 and my local chain are up tomorrow.

[Porthos]

BTW folks, Palladio 16 up in Rocklin has put up an expanded Fri/Sat/Sun list, along with a couple other Cinema West properties.

 

Just for Palladio:

Fri:   33 showings

Sat:  33 showings

Sun: 33 showings

 

I don't know if that is its final list or not.  I suspect perhaps not.  For reference, the most I usually see at Palladio 16 for uber-blockbusters is around 35 to 36 showings on FSS.  I don't recall seeing much more than that, at least.

 

So EG MIGHT lose a showing or two.  But then again, this isn't the final listing yet.

 

(and, yes, @captainwondyful is quite right that the larger multiplexes aren't the ones that'll run into screen crunch, it's the smaller ones - just showing that at least some of the local large multiplexes are saying damn the torpedoes run time, full speed screens ahead!)

 

((and, of course, as Yours Truly said, some of these screens might be the smaller auditoriums by necessisty - still, raw showing count looks to be large at the places that can try to juggle the screens around))

[TalismanRing]

Looking at my local the three sold out shows that seemingly have never went on sale are still there days later.  I think they might be group sellouts. I'll give numbers with & without

 

3D - 7 shows  (first few are pulling their weight and filling up - later ones still lagging everything)

 

219/256

223/256

207/302

84/256

30/205

21/218

31/218

 

815 /1689 = 48.25%

 

RPX  (mostly some scattered front row and wheel chair spaces left)

295/ 320
295/ 320

 

590/640 = 92.19%

 

2D 

269 /301

279 /301

227/ 248

234 /257

263/ 301

[3 shaded sellouts 719/719]

 

1272 / 1408 = 90.34%

[1991/2127 = 93.6%]

 

Fan Event

251/257 = 97.66%

 

Totals [with and without shaded out theaters]  = 2928/ 3994 = 73.31%  /   3647/ 4713 - 77.3%

 

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Porthos said:

BTW folks, Palladio 16 up in Rocklin has put up an expanded Fri/Sat/Sun list, along with a couple other Cinema West properties.

 

Just for Palladio:

Fri:   33 showings

Sat:  33 showings

Sun: 33 showings

 

I don't know if that is its final list or not.  I suspect perhaps not.  For reference, the most I usually see at Palladio 16 for uber-blockbusters is around 35 to 36 showings on FSS.  I don't recall seeing much more than that, at least.

 

So EG MIGHT lose a showing or two.  But then again, this isn't the final listing yet.

 

(and, yes, @captainwondyful is quite right that the larger multiplexes aren't the ones that'll run into screen crunch, it's the smaller ones - just showing that at least some of the local large multiplexes are saying damn the torpedoes run time, full speed screens ahead!)

 

((and, of course, as Yours Truly said, some of these screens might be the smaller auditoriums by necessisty - still, raw showing count looks to be large at the places that can try to juggle the screens around))

 

While it may be slowing down, it's still running almost double the pace of IW with 20 days left (if I'm reading your numbers right - 116 tickets sold for IW on day 20 vs 220 for EG exact). Now, it won't remain at double of course, but even if it could just sell the exact same amount of seats more at the same theaters over the next 20 days, we'd be looking at almost 19k at those places. If it runs 25% ahead, nearly 21k. 

Crazy stuff either way. 

[XXR vs XXR]

Something else that's interesting / fun to consider. 

The weekend before Infinity War, the total box office was $125m. 

Looking at what's coming and the Box Office Pro forecasts, we could very well be looking at a weekend before Endgame of under $65 million. 

[Matthew]

I was thinking about it.. I know people want Endgame to beat TFA previews but I don't think it's likely. 

 

Offcourse it can reach 300M OW without beating TFA Thursday figure. So everything is good, I think. 👍👍