The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[XXR vs XXR]

2 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

It also assumes that TFA sold out of basically every showtime all weekend which while not impossible is unlikely.

 

I based the numbers on TFA's saturation rate. Endgame would need that kind of show count @ the same saturation rate + current movie price average.

[Ledmonkey96]

It'll be interesting to see how it goes regardless.... speaking of here are the Endgame sales for the theater nearest to me.

 

Thursday 728/849 (85.7%)

Friday 759/942 (80.6%)

Saturday 734/1042 (70.4%)

Sunday 398/1042 (38.2%)

Total: 2619/3875 67.6% (The reason the total number of tickets is different from what i gave yesterday is that that number included broken seats we aren't selling and seats that aren't sold in case someone's seat is broken or we double sell tickets, they add up over 40+ showings.)

I'm tempted to look over every theater in my area for Thursday at least.

 

Edit: Nevermind of the 7 theaters near me only 3 do assigned seating. Kind of surprised only 1 of the 4 regals does Assigned seating tbh.

 

 

Edited April 7, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[Barnack]

1 hour ago, TalismanRing said:

I think the Deadline article on predictions said a $300m o/w would require about 70% saturation on 12,000 screens (though how that calculate considering the disparity of screen size and ticket prices is beyond me but they have the nationwide numbers)

 

That interesting, what is the average screen size, if it is 150 ticket and the average price quite high during a movie like first weekend it could mean

 

Say a 55m previews, it would mean that the weekend capacity of 12,000 screen would be about 350m (350 * .7 = 245m).

 

That $29,166 per screen, at $10 ticket average and 150 seat by screen average, that would be 19-20 show during the weekend by screen.

 

I imagine those movie get all the biggest screen and the biggest ticket price, so it could be more $12, 180 seats for a 13 shows by screen average.

 

Sound reasonable imo.

 

 

 

 

[FlashMaster659]

One more for today

 

Avengers: Endgame: TCL Chinese Theaters + IMAX - Thursday Night

 

IMAX Laser 2D

 

6:00 PM - 923/932

10:30 PM - 912/932

2:30 AM - 63/932

 

MX4D

 

7:00 PM - 95/104

11:00 PM - 79/104

 

Total

 

2072/3004 (69.0%)

[Legion Again]

Those total presales are nice.

[XXR vs XXR]

3 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

6:00 PM - 923/932

I don't think I've ever been in a showing with over 350 people, much less over 900. Can't imagine what that's like. 

[Jormungard]

7 minutes ago, FlashMaster659 said:

Avengers: Endgame: TCL Chinese Theaters + IMAX - Thursday Night

 

2:30 AM - 63/932

[Ledmonkey96]

16 minutes ago, Jormungard said:

I'm assuming that's a specific well known theater that never does showings that late?

[KP1025]

8 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I'm assuming that's a specific well known theater that never does showings that late?

 

On 4/3/2019 at 8:53 PM, ViewerAnon said:

Speaking just for L.A., TFA had a 4 a.m. IMAX show sell out at the Chinese within 24 hours, and that's a thousand seater.

 

 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

6 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

I'm assuming that's a specific well known theater that never does showings that late?

One of, if not the most famous theaters in the world. It's the place where actors/celebrities imprint their hands and feet in cement. I know TFA had a 2am and 5am show time there, and TLJ and IW both had the 2am time also. We will see if they add a 630am show time to the docket for Endgame.  

[Ledmonkey96]

1 minute ago, KP1025 said:

 

 

So well behind TFA, meh.

 

The name through me off a bit I've heard of The Chinese Theater. TCL Chinese Theaters had me confused though.

 

Just now, VenomXXR said:

One of, if not the most famous theaters in the world. It's the place where actors/celebrities imprint their hands and feet in cement. I know TFA had a 2am and 5am show time there, and TLJ and IW both had the 2am time also. We will see if they add a 630am show time to the docket for Endgame.  

Edited April 7, 2019 by Ledmonkey96

[Matthew]

I know it's not a popular opinion but I still think Endgame will not beat TFA Thursday previews. 

 

I have quick checked many theatre around my area. The presales for TFA were amazing. 

 

Also TFA late night shows were almost full for Thursday at this time before release. 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

8 minutes ago, Matthew said:

I know it's not a popular opinion but I still think Endgame will not beat TFA Thursday previews. 

 

I have quick checked many theatre around my area. The presales for TFA were amazing. 

 

Also TFA late night shows were almost full for Thursday at this time before release. 

 

 

 

Perhaps it won’t. My original prediction, before the presale insanity, was $10m over IW previews. 

[Porthos]

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-19 Days and counting

 

	Sellouts	Showings	Seats left	Total Seats	Perct Sold
TOTALS	8	221	5779	23024	74.90%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               1

Total Seats Sold Today:                  247

 

Infinity War Comps:

2.5376x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after five day of pre−sales.
2.0364x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 19 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.1105x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
0.9840x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally, unless specifically noted otherwise.

 

IW (day 5):            99 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/107 showings  | 4899/10660 seats left  | 54.04% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 5):  161 tickets sold that day [8 sellouts/221 showings | 3962/18581 seats left  | 78.68% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 5): 144 tickets sold that day [8 sellouts/195 showings | 3414/16368 seats left  | 79.14% sold]

----

IW (T-19):    7179 tickets sold so far   [2 sellout/116 showings    | 3946/11125 seats left  | 64.53% sold]  

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   14619 tickets sold so far   [8 sellouts/221 showings   | 3962/18581 seats left  | 78.68% sold]

EG (exact**):  12954 tickets sold so far   [8 sellouts/195 showings   | 3414/16368 seats left  | 79.14% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

8.5583x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel after five days of pre−sales.
4.9812x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 19 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.6341x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.

 

CM (day 5):       98 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/81 showings  |  8593/10608 seats left | 19.00% sold]

CM (T-19) :  3462 tickets sold so far     [2 sellouts/83 showings   | 7247/10709 seats left  | 32.33% sold]

CM (final):   10553 tickets sold at stop  [1 sellout/92 showings    | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:             17245 tickets sold so far    [8 sellouts/221 showings | 5779/23024 seats left  | 74.90% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps:

Spoiler

 

1.8039x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.
1.7975x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.
2.5253x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.
2.3473x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   14619 tickets sold so far   [8 sellouts/221 showings   | 3962/18581 seats left  | 78.68% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 23 days before release)

Fri: 1 sellouts/279 showings [IW: 0/214]

Sat: 0 sellouts/277 showings [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 0 sellout/267 showings [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  8/221 (+1/nc)  [2D: 8/177 (+1/nc) | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 192 screens [IW: 82 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:       8* [+1] [IW: 2]

90-95%: 42  [+2} [IW: 10]

80-89%: 49  [-2]  [IW: 11]

70-79%: 32  [nc]  [IW: 16]

60-69%: 27  [+4] [IW: 18]

50-59%: 13  [-3]  [IW: 6]

40-49%:   4  [nc]   [IW: 5]

30-39%:   6  [+1]  [IW: 6]

20-29%:   5  [nc]   [IW: 4]

10-19%:   4  [-3]  [IW: 4]

0-9%:       4  [nc]   [IW: 0]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

Edited April 8, 2019 by Porthos
Forgot to update a couple of fields on my spreadsheet IW and CM comps slightly changed

[Porthos]

I know it may not look like it from either the top line number, or the comps on "after five days of sales", but EG really is slowing down.  Many many many showtimes didn't sell a single ticket.

 

Which, well, makes sense when one looks at the top line number of 247 tickets sold out of 221 showings.

 

But, no, really; absolutely entering into the slowdown phase here.  Quite a few of the tickets were from showings added yesterday or Thursday.  In fact, it does kinda appear as if folks are lurking in the shadows a bit, waiting for new showings, and then grabbing the good seats then. 

 

Won't be surprised one jot to see it dip under 50 tickets sold on any given day in the coming days. Maybe even lower. Might just depend on whether or not a showing gets added or not.

 

...

 

And, heaven help me, I see even one Sad Tennant reaction when those inevitable sub-50 ticket days come...

Edited April 7, 2019 by Porthos

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, Porthos said:

inevitable

Press X to doubt 

[Porthos]

Very funny, @JB33.  But it doesn't count when you intentionally drop a Sad Tennant on my post preemptively complaining about Sad Tennant reactions.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, Thanos Legion said:

Press X to doubt 

Okay, fine. Mostly inevitable.   

 

Probably will come down to whether or not any showings get added this week.  If it doesn't happen by this coming Saturday (the 13th), then sure, it won't happen.  But dunno.. Call it a gut instinct that we'll see at least one sub-50 on the "exact" comp.

[Ledmonkey96]

14 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Okay, fine. Mostly inevitable.   

 

Probably will come down to whether or not any showings get added this week.  If it doesn't happen by this coming Saturday (the 13th), then sure, it won't happen.  But dunno.. Call it a gut instinct that we'll see at least one sub-50 on the "exact" comp.

The worst previews to OW MCU multi is 6.59 isn't it? Ant-man & the wasp? Could we get to 320mil!

[Matthew]

The way things are going. Soon everybody will start predicting 350M+ 😎😎