The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

[Legion Again]

8 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

The worst previews to OW MCU multi is 6.59 isn't it? Ant-man & the wasp? Could we get to 320mil!

Endgame will set a new record low internal multi for the MCU. The question is whether its internal multi can be “MCU but a bit weaker” vs “basically like SW.”

[Porthos]

6 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

The worst previews to OW MCU multi is 6.59 isn't it? Ant-man & the wasp? Could we get to 320mil!

 

3 minutes ago, Matthew said:

The way things are going. Soon everybody will start predicting 350M+ 😎😎

 

---

 

Like, the OW record IS 257.7m.  Pace yourselves, folks.

 

...

 

Can't wait to see @That One Guy's OW prediction. 👍

[Legion Again]

9 minutes ago, Porthos said:

the OW record IS 257.7m.  Pace yourselves, folks. 

Well hey now, the largest jump in OW record is Return of the Jedi with +50% from Wrath of Khan. That would get Endgame to a solid 386M OW    

 

Spoiler

Okay, to be fair the biggest jump in OW record this millennia is just Spider-Man with +27%, and the best in the past decade and a half is The Avengers, with +22.5% would give Endgame 316M.     

 

Probably under 300 though.

 

[Porthos]

I'm gonna be a bad guy and take the spoiler text out.

 

Just now, Thanos Legion said:

Okay, to be fair the biggest jump in OW record this millennia is just Spider-Man with +27%, and the best in the past decade and a half is The Avengers, with +22.5% would give Endgame 316M.     

 

Probably under 300 though.

Where I think EG will really stomp over things, comparatively speaking, is its first MTWTh thanks to spillover.  Sure'it'll be a non-summer, non-holiday weekday period.  But I think the pent up demand will probably still be so great as to get boffo numbers anyway.  That's one of the slightly overlooked things about TFA's run, IMO.  Lots of folks rightly point to the holidays.  But it was also the sheer level of demand spilling over into those holiday weekdays.  

 

I think maybe even more than the OW, that's where I'm fascinated to see how EG will do.  Just how much can it get on a daily basis with more or less one hand tied behind its back?

[Porthos]

@VenomXXR Got that info you wanted.

 

Now I'd be more than a little careful with this raw, 30,000 foot, data.  A LOT of local nuance is gonna get stripped out of it.  Still, you asked so I'll answer.

 

To spare folks, I'll put all of the tedious data in a spoiler box:

 

Spoiler

Number of theaters in the region:         24 + 1 drive in

Number of theaters showing Endgame: 18 (+ drive in eventually)

(does NOT include theater scheduled to open on April 19th)

 

Number of showings for Endgame:            221

Number of screens devoted to Endgame:   125

Total number of screens available:             215  (58.14% devoted to Endgame)

Avg number of showings per screen:      1.768

 

# of showings with reserved seating info: 192/221

 

Avg # of seats at reserved seating screenings for Endgame: 120 (rounded)

Mode: 110 seats

Median: 106 seats

 

Largest auditorium: 376 seats

Smallest auditorium: 30 seats

 

Theaters by max screens:

16 screens: 5

14 screens: 5

12 screens: 2

10 screens: 1

9 screens:   2

6 screens:   2

1 screen:    1

 

I got more info, obviously.  But that's probably just enough info to get you into trouble.

 

After all:  There are lies, damned lies, and then there are...  Well, you know.

Edited April 7, 2019 by Porthos

[john2000]

3 hours ago, Porthos said:

I'm gonna be a bad guy and take the spoiler text out.

 

Where I think EG will really stomp over things, comparatively speaking, is its first MTWTh thanks to spillover.  Sure'it'll be a non-summer, non-holiday weekday period.  But I think the pent up demand will probably still be so great as to get boffo numbers anyway.  That's one of the slightly overlooked things about TFA's run, IMO.  Lots of folks rightly point to the holidays.  But it was also the sheer level of demand spilling over into those holiday weekdays.  

 

I think maybe even more than the OW, that's where I'm fascinated to see how EG will do.  Just how much can it get on a daily basis with more or less one hand tied behind its back?

now that endgame has slow down which is normal , could we see it recover sooner than say iw as the tickets dropped later than iw ?

[TalismanRing]

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-04-06 04:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	30.173%	21011	Shazam!
2	14.317%	9970	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	13.571%	9450	Pet Sematary (2019)
4	09.390%	6539	Us (2019)
5	08.677%	6042	Captain Marvel (2019)
6	07.500%	5223	Dumbo (2019)
7	03.118%	2171	The Best of Enemies
8	02.134%	1486	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
9	01.369%	953	Hotel Mumbai
10	01.333%	928	Unplanned (2019)

[john2000]

3 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-04-06 04:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	30.173%	21011	Shazam!
2	14.317%	9970	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	13.571%	9450	Pet Sematary (2019)
4	09.390%	6539	Us (2019)
5	08.677%	6042	Captain Marvel (2019)
6	07.500%	5223	Dumbo (2019)
7	03.118%	2171	The Best of Enemies
8	02.134%	1486	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
9	01.369%	953	Hotel Mumbai
10	01.333%	928	Unplanned (2019)

endgame still hanging

[XXR vs XXR]

2 hours ago, TalismanRing said:

Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-04-06 04:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	30.173%	21011	Shazam!
2	14.317%	9970	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	13.571%	9450	Pet Sematary (2019)
4	09.390%	6539	Us (2019)
5	08.677%	6042	Captain Marvel (2019)
6	07.500%	5223	Dumbo (2019)
7	03.118%	2171	The Best of Enemies
8	02.134%	1486	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
9	01.369%	953	Hotel Mumbai
10	01.333%	928	Unplanned (2019)

 

So Endgame is going to make (approx.) $20m this weekend? 

[Darth Lehnsherr]

6 hours ago, Thanos Legion said:

Endgame will set a new record low internal multi for the MCU. The question is whether its internal multi can be “MCU but a bit weaker” vs “basically like SW.”

Probably around Solo and Rogue One levels but still easily above TFA and TLJ

[XXR vs XXR]

5 hours ago, Porthos said:

I'm gonna be a bad guy and take the spoiler text out.

 

Where I think EG will really stomp over things, comparatively speaking, is its first MTWTh thanks to spillover.  Sure'it'll be a non-summer, non-holiday weekday period.  But I think the pent up demand will probably still be so great as to get boffo numbers anyway.  That's one of the slightly overlooked things about TFA's run, IMO.  Lots of folks rightly point to the holidays.  But it was also the sheer level of demand spilling over into those holiday weekdays.  

 

I think maybe even more than the OW, that's where I'm fascinated to see how EG will do.  Just how much can it get on a daily basis with more or less one hand tied behind its back?

 

IW made just over $80m MTWTh. I think EG can get into that $90-$100m range. 

[Matthew]

38 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So Endgame is going to make (approx.) $20m this weekend? 

Nah, these arw just Fandango sales. If you are comparing with other movies. They have lots of walkup for Shazam. 

[XXR vs XXR]

1 minute ago, Matthew said:

Nah, these arw just Fandango sales. If you are comparing with other movies. They have lots of walkup for Shazam. 

 

So it's just app/website sales or it catalogs all sales in the system? 

[Matthew]

6 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

So it's just app/website sales or it catalogs all sales in the system? 

Just app/website sales. 

 

Avengers Infinity war made about 85M of its OW from Fandango sales. And that movie was presales heavy. So, you can get the idea that presales doesn't account much of OW. 

[XXR vs XXR]

7 minutes ago, Matthew said:

Just app/website sales. 

 

Avengers Infinity war made about 85M of its OW from Fandango sales. And that movie was presales heavy. So, you can get the idea that presales doesn't account much of OW. 

 

I feel like total presales for Endgame could hit $150m

 

[Matthew]

2 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I feel like total presales for Endgame could hit $150m

 

Considering what data @TalismanRing and @Porthos are giving Thursday is very strong everywhere. If Friday and Saturday also catch up in presales about 55-60% before going into weekend.

 

There is a good possibility it hit 150M in presales. But we will never know. 😔😔

[stfletch]

I find it interesting that AEG dropped out of the top 5 on MovieTickets.com but is still strongly in 2nd on Fandango.

[cdsacken]

How many of the 750,000 AMC Alist folks are reserving end game for the opening weekend? Gotta be a HUGE percentage.

Edited April 7, 2019 by cdsacken

[XXR vs XXR]

On 4/4/2019 at 5:40 PM, VenomXXR said:

In edition to doing a weekly Wednesday ticket sales count for Endgame at my particular theater, I'm going to do a weekly Thursday show time count for all of the AMC theaters (213 screens combined) in Houston. As of 5:30pm CST, 21 days before opening Thursday....

 

Thursday = 274 showtimes 

Friday = 223 showtimes

Saturday = 220 showtimes 

Sunday = 212 showtimes 

 

**Note: One of the 24 screen theaters currently only has 6 times scheduled for Thursday and 36 for the weekend. I'm not sure why it's so few. By comparison, an 8 screen theater has 37 shows for the weekend and a 10 screener has 68 shows so far.

 

 

 

 

Houston Area AMC Theaters -- Show Count -- 18 days before opening Thursday....

 

Thursday = 292

Friday = 224

Saturday = 224

Sunday = 212

 

**Note: As per @Deep Wang, the 24 screen theater previously mentioned with the unusually small show count is currently undergoing renovations and haven't listed most of their screens as they do not know yet which ones will be ready for opening night. 

 

[XXR vs XXR]

57 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Houston Area AMC Theaters -- Show Count -- 18 days before opening Thursday....

 

Thursday = 292

Friday = 224

Saturday = 224

Sunday = 212

 

**Note: As per @Deep Wang, the 24 screen theater previously mentioned with the unusually small show count is currently undergoing renovations and haven't listed most of their screens as they do not know yet which ones will be ready for opening night. 

 

 

Doing a quick extrapolation....

Excluding the renovating theater, we're averaging 1.513 shows per theater screen on Thursday. I believe my region is pretty "normal" when it comes to Endgame averages based on all of the data I've looked at. Using my current theater number of $710 per showing @ 4480 theaters, we get the following Thursday numbers as of right now.....

 

7 screen national average = $33.69 million

8 screen national average = $38.50 million 

9 screen national average = $43.31 million 

 

Reference: Now, thanks to @Porthos, I know that in total there are approximately 40800 screens in the US out of about 5840 theaters. Endgame will have probably a few more than IW, so I went with 4480 for my estimate. On straight line data (40800/5840) we get an average of 7 screens per theater. However, I believe the vast majority of the theaters that Endgame won't have access to have far fewer screens on average (2-4) so I believe the average screen count per theater that Endgame will be in is between 8-9....

 

In conclusion, my current Thursday previews estimate RIGHT NOW is....

 

$39.7 million