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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Doing a quick extrapolation....

Excluding the renovating theater, we're averaging 1.513 shows per theater screen on Thursday. I believe my region is pretty "normal" when it comes to Endgame averages based on all of the data I've looked at. Using my current theater number of $710 per showing @ 4480 theaters, we get the following Thursday numbers as of right now.....

 

7 screen national average = $33.69 million

8 screen national average = $38.50 million 

9 screen national average = $43.31 million 

 

Reference: Now, thanks to @Porthos, I know that in total there are approximately 40800 screens in the US out of about 5840 theaters. Endgame will have probably a few more than IW, so I went with 4480 for my estimate. On straight line data (40800/5840) we get an average of 7 screens per theater. However, I believe the vast majority of the theaters that Endgame won't have access to have far fewer screens on average (2-4) so I believe the average screen count per theater that Endgame will be in is between 8-9....

 

In conclusion, my current Thursday previews estimate RIGHT NOW is....

 

$39.7 million 

good analysis will probably pass last jedi previews in the end and maybe 50

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
33 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

In conclusion, my current Thursday previews estimate RIGHT NOW is....

 

$39.7 million 

Too tired to give any sort of thoughts on the methodology (rotten night sleep :)), but that does seem to be in line with the projections from Sacramento (anywhere from .984x IW to 1.11x IW [38.376m to 43.29m]).

 

I think in this case, being 'conservative' is probably the smart call. 👍

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Porthos said:

Too tired to give any sort of thoughts on the methodology (rotten night sleep :)), but that does seem to be in line with the projections from Sacramento (anywhere from .984x IW to 1.11x IW [38.376m to 43.29m]).

 

I think in this case, being 'conservative' is probably the smart call. 👍

 

I'll knock off 10% and we can call it $36 million for now 🤣

 

Most of my methodology will be based on my own data and your more detailed data, specifically where it relates to IW exactly (not including the new theaters.)

 

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

I'll knock off 10% and we can call it $36 million for now 🤣

 

Most of my methodology will be based on my own data and your more detailed data, specifically where it relates to IW exactly (not including the new theaters.)

 

the fact thats its still 3 weeks away and its already trending between 38-43 like porthos said is CRAZY

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Rumpot said:

I'm still waiting/hoping someone has an explanation for how Harry Potter DH2 made 43M from only midnight showings in 2011.  Anyone?

Every/nearly all screens showing the film at said theaters.   Well, okay, most. :)

 

Also, HP fans back in the day were pretty much only second to SW fans when it came to nuttiness in regards to pre-sales. Strong argument could be made that they were even more nutty at peak HP fervor (hard to really compare since SW had been dormant since 2005).

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)

I would also add that HP fans had already been "trained" by midnight book release parties.

 

I attended one of them (to get a book for my mom).  I want to say Half-Blood Prince?

 

Good god, the number of people at the bookstore.  Insanity. :insane: Took about ninety minutes to two hours to get through the line, IIRC.

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XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I would also add that HP fans had already been "trained" by midnight book release parties.

 

I attended one of them (to get a book for my mom).  I want to say Half-Blood Prince?

 

Good god, the number of people at the bookstore.  Insanity. :insane: Took about ninety minutes to two hours to get through the line, IIRC.

 

Ahh the good old days. I waited in midnight lines for OOTP, HBP and DH. OOTP and HBP were crazy, but DH was absolutely nuts. I went to a Barnes and Noble at one of the biggest malls in Houston, and there must have been over 2000 people there. Luckily for me, I went way earlier in the day and got a "first wave" wristband, so I was one of the first 100 people to get it. 

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

I would also add that HP fans had already been "trained" by midnight book release parties.

 

I attended one of them (to get a book for my mom).  I want to say Half-Blood Prince?

 

Good god, the number of people at the bookstore.  Insanity. :insane: Took about ninety minutes to two hours to get through the line, IIRC.

I agree we have a very good training  ,now as an mcu fan i brought my phisolophy from my previous hp  era ,just look at the end game and tell me with a straight fase that i  havent done a good job... you cant

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Rebeccas Box Office Gold

Rebeccas

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Ahh the good old days. I waited in midnight lines for OOTP, HBP and DH. OOTP and HBP were crazy, but DH was absolutely nuts. I went to a Barnes and Noble at one of the biggest malls in Houston, and there must have been over 2000 people there. Luckily for me, I went way earlier in the day and got a "first wave" wristband, so I was one of the first 100 people to get it. 

I went to the B&N party for the fun and free poster, but then I left to buy the book itself at a CVS where there was no line lol

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

Ahh the good old days. I waited in midnight lines for OOTP, HBP and DH. OOTP and HBP were crazy, but DH was absolutely nuts. I went to a Barnes and Noble at one of the biggest malls in Houston, and there must have been over 2000 people there. Luckily for me, I went way earlier in the day and got a "first wave" wristband, so I was one of the first 100 people to get it. 

Pivoting back to movies, the other thing about midnights was that it was seen as something like a badge of honor.  Or proving that one was hardcore.  At least for some.

 

And when it comes to fandom, proving one's hardcore-ness by attending a midnight screening... Well given how folks here compete to show how hardcore they are in various Franchise War threads, is it any surprise that folks back then would stay up 'till midnight?

 

Moviegoers are so soft nowadays. :sadno:  Why back in my day, we had to walk through the snow fight massive packed parking lots.  BOTH WAYS!!!!

 

People think it's so tough, clicking madly on Fandango to get their seat.  Why we had to wait outside in the pouring rain while mad dogs attacked us, trying to get us out of line.  But did we budge?  NO!

 

Try to tell kids this today though and they don't believe you.  :sadno:

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Pivoting back to movies, the other thing about midnights was that it was seen as something like a badge of honor.  Or proving that one was hardcore.  At least for some.

 

And when it comes to fandom, proving one's hardcore-ness by attending a midnight screening... Well given how folks here compete to show how hardcore they are in various Franchise War threads, is it any surprise that folks back then would stay up 'till midnight?

 

Moviegoers are so soft nowadays. :sadno:  Why back in my day, we had to walk through the snow fight massive packed parking lots.  BOTH WAYS!!!!

 

People think it's so tough, clicking madly on Fandango to get their seat.  Why we had to wait outside in the pouring rain while mad dogs attacked us, trying to get us out of line.  But did we budge.  NO!

 

Try to tell kids this though and they don't believe you.  :sadno:

agr:bravo:

Edited by john2000
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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted

11am -- 3 Sundays before opening weekend -- Infinity War  

2018-04-08 11:00:00	942	A Quiet Place
2018-04-08 11:00:00	307	Ready Player One
2018-04-08 11:00:00	287	Blockers
2018-04-08 11:00:00	183	Black Panther
2018-04-08 11:00:00	144	Chappaquiddick
2018-04-08 11:00:00	116	Tyler Perrys Acrimony
2018-04-08 11:00:00	115	Sherlock Gnomes
2018-04-08 11:00:00	111	Isle of Dogs
2018-04-08 11:00:00	87	I Can Only Imagine
2018-04-08 11:00:00	86	Ready Player One 3D
2018-04-08 11:00:00	82	The Miracle Season
2018-04-08 11:00:00	73	A Wrinkle in Time
2018-04-08 11:00:00	59	Ready Player One An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-08 11:00:00	58	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-08 11:00:00	57	Pacific Rim Uprising (2018)
2018-04-08 11:00:00	36	Love, Simon
2018-04-08 11:00:00	30	Grease 40th Anniversary (1978) presented by TCM
2018-04-08 11:00:00	25	Paul, Apostle of Christ
2018-04-08 11:00:00	16	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-08 11:00:00	16	Tomb Raider (2018)
2018-04-08 11:00:00	14	The Death of Stalin
2018-04-08 11:00:00	13	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-08 11:00:00	11	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-08 11:00:00	9	Gods Not Dead A Light in Darkness
2018-04-08 11:00:00	9	Peter Rabbit
2018-04-08 11:00:00	8	Ready Player One The IMAX 2D Experience

 

 

11am -- 3 Sundays before opening weekend -- Endgame  

2019-04-07 11:00:00	1116	Shazam!
2019-04-07 11:00:00	435	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	423	Pet Sematary (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	395	Dumbo (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	346	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	290	Us (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	138	The Best of Enemies
2019-04-07 11:00:00	125	Shazam! 3D
2019-04-07 11:00:00	112	Shazam! The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-04-07 11:00:00	83	Unplanned (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	68	Wonder Park
2019-04-07 11:00:00	67	Avengers Endgame 3D (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	53	Hotel Mumbai
2019-04-07 11:00:00	46	Five Feet Apart
2019-04-07 11:00:00	43	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-04-07 11:00:00	35	Howls Moving Castle – Studio Ghibli Fest 2019
2019-04-07 11:00:00	29	Dumbo 3D
2019-04-07 11:00:00	27	Avengers Endgame The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	17	The Mustang
2019-04-07 11:00:00	15	Majili
2019-04-07 11:00:00	14	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
2019-04-07 11:00:00	12	Avengers Endgame An IMAX 3D Experience (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	9	The Beach Bum
2019-04-07 11:00:00	8	Hellboy (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	7	The Public
2019-04-07 11:00:00	7	The Aftermath (2019)

 

 

So on the same comparative date and time in the sales cycle, Endgame is currently outselling Infinity War by 361%.....

 

:kitschjob:

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Pivoting back to movies, the other thing about midnights was that it was seen as something like a badge of honor.  Or proving that one was hardcore.  At least for some.

 

And when it comes to fandom, proving one's hardcore-ness by attending a midnight screening... Well given how folks here compete to show how hardcore they are in various Franchise War threads, is it any surprise that folks back then would stay up 'till midnight?

 

Moviegoers are so soft nowadays. :sadno:  Why back in my day, we had to walk through the snow fight massive packed parking lots.  BOTH WAYS!!!!

 

People think it's so tough, clicking madly on Fandango to get their seat.  Why we had to wait outside in the pouring rain while mad dogs attacked us, trying to get us out of line.  But did we budge?  NO!

 

Try to tell kids this today though and they don't believe you.  :sadno:

So true! I actually miss those days. Event films felt like even more of an event then when you parked yourself in line and sat down with a deck of cards or whatever, waiting to get into the auditorium.

 

I'm trying to remember what my craziest experience was. It may have been Spider-Man 3. I know that was nuts! I also remember waiting in a line that went all the way outside into the parking lot for Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire. The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King, Star Wars: Episode III - Revenge of the Sith and The Dark Knight were naturally pretty crazy too. I just can't pinpoint which was the craziest.

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john2000 Blockbuster

john2000

Posted
Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

11am -- 3 Sundays before opening weekend -- Infinity War  


2018-04-08 11:00:00	942	A Quiet Place
2018-04-08 11:00:00	307	Ready Player One
2018-04-08 11:00:00	287	Blockers
2018-04-08 11:00:00	183	Black Panther
2018-04-08 11:00:00	144	Chappaquiddick
2018-04-08 11:00:00	116	Tyler Perrys Acrimony
2018-04-08 11:00:00	115	Sherlock Gnomes
2018-04-08 11:00:00	111	Isle of Dogs
2018-04-08 11:00:00	87	I Can Only Imagine
2018-04-08 11:00:00	86	Ready Player One 3D
2018-04-08 11:00:00	82	The Miracle Season
2018-04-08 11:00:00	73	A Wrinkle in Time
2018-04-08 11:00:00	59	Ready Player One An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-08 11:00:00	58	Avengers Infinity War
2018-04-08 11:00:00	57	Pacific Rim Uprising (2018)
2018-04-08 11:00:00	36	Love, Simon
2018-04-08 11:00:00	30	Grease 40th Anniversary (1978) presented by TCM
2018-04-08 11:00:00	25	Paul, Apostle of Christ
2018-04-08 11:00:00	16	Avengers Infinity War 3D
2018-04-08 11:00:00	16	Tomb Raider (2018)
2018-04-08 11:00:00	14	The Death of Stalin
2018-04-08 11:00:00	13	Avengers Infinity War The IMAX 2D Experience
2018-04-08 11:00:00	11	Avengers Infinity War An IMAX 3D Experience
2018-04-08 11:00:00	9	Gods Not Dead A Light in Darkness
2018-04-08 11:00:00	9	Peter Rabbit
2018-04-08 11:00:00	8	Ready Player One The IMAX 2D Experience

 

 

11am -- 3 Sundays before opening weekend -- Endgame  


2019-04-07 11:00:00	1116	Shazam!
2019-04-07 11:00:00	435	Captain Marvel (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	423	Pet Sematary (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	395	Dumbo (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	346	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	290	Us (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	138	The Best of Enemies
2019-04-07 11:00:00	125	Shazam! 3D
2019-04-07 11:00:00	112	Shazam! The IMAX 2D Experience
2019-04-07 11:00:00	83	Unplanned (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	68	Wonder Park
2019-04-07 11:00:00	67	Avengers Endgame 3D (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	53	Hotel Mumbai
2019-04-07 11:00:00	46	Five Feet Apart
2019-04-07 11:00:00	43	How to Train Your Dragon The Hidden World
2019-04-07 11:00:00	35	Howls Moving Castle – Studio Ghibli Fest 2019
2019-04-07 11:00:00	29	Dumbo 3D
2019-04-07 11:00:00	27	Avengers Endgame The IMAX 2D Experience (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	17	The Mustang
2019-04-07 11:00:00	15	Majili
2019-04-07 11:00:00	14	Tyler Perrys A Madea Family Funeral
2019-04-07 11:00:00	12	Avengers Endgame An IMAX 3D Experience (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	9	The Beach Bum
2019-04-07 11:00:00	8	Hellboy (2019)
2019-04-07 11:00:00	7	The Public
2019-04-07 11:00:00	7	The Aftermath (2019)

 

 

So on the same comparative date and time in the sales cycle, Endgame is currently outselling Infinity War by 361%.....

 

:kitschjob:

like i said i have done a good gob ,damn they made pappa proud 

Edited by john2000
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cdsacken Summer Tentpole

cdsacken

Posted
Posted

Oh man those stupid lines where they set you aside with 200 people because there were not assigned seats. Man that sucked.

 

I remember one of the first beer and food joints. Ridgemar Movie Tavern, Fort Worth TX. Pizzas and beer. You could buy a 48 ounce tanker they would fill up for like $10 every time. Yikes 2 of those and it was alsleep during the movie.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Rumpot said:

I'm still waiting/hoping someone has an explanation for how Harry Potter DH2 made 43M from only midnight showings in 2011.  Anyone?

It didn't. It had showings starting at midnight but went through the night into morning.  It helped vastly  that it was summer, so not a school night.

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