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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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Legion Again Global Phenomenon

Legion Again

Posted
Posted (edited)
On 4/6/2019 at 5:09 PM, Thanos Legion said:

Think I’ll just jot down their end of day updates for posterity from now til AEG comes out. Not as useful as Fandango, but why not? There was some movement today that I didn’t expect, with CM rising all the way to 4th, but Endgame stayed above Us and is hanging in there for now. Expect Endgame will drop out tomorrow morning, back for good by Mon. Also AEG is small enough now that I’m dropping the adjusted calculation for the other movies.

  


1	30.1%	Shazam!
2	13.9%	Dumbo
3	12.9%	Pet Sematary
4	9.1%	Captain Marvel
5	8.8%	Avengers: Endgame
17:00 Pacific Time
1	31.4%	Shazam!
2	13.6%	Dumbo
3	11.4%	Pet Sematary
4	11%	Avengers: Endgame
5	9.4%	Captain Marvel

 

Well, I think there’s a good chance that Endgame won’t have any days in the presale period where it failed to appear in the MT top 5. That’s a remarkable record still!       

 

CM is once again above Us, everything is pretty stable from yesterday. Should see a big change tomorrow, think Endgame will return to #1 but my be a bit short.

Edited by Thanos Legion
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charlie Jatinder Global Phenomenon

charlie Jatinder

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Thanos Legion said: 

1	31.4%	Shazam!
2	13.6%	Dumbo
3	11.4%	Pet Sematary
4	11%	Avengers: Endgame
5	9.4%	Captain Marvel

 

Well, I think there’s a good chance that Endgame won’t have any days in the presale period where it failed to appear in the MT top 5. That’s a remarkable record still!       

 

CM is once again above Us, everything is pretty stable from yesterday. Should see a big change tomorrow, think Endgame will return to #1 but my be a bit short.

Can say that, Endgame basically had sales worth 30% of Shazam during FSS. Around $13mn rounded down.

 

Day 1 was around $30mn, Day 2 around $15mn and Day 3 was $6mn Approx. So far $64mn in 6 days. Say $60mn.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
34 minutes ago, gfb said:

Important to remember Endgame should have higher daily presales just simply because of AIW having a few more weeks of presales at every comp. It's more about by how much Endgame beats it that is staggering. Also definitely did not have last 24 hour akvalley data back then, the data I have below for Endgame was calculated before each weekly update hour by hour and others have done the same. Akvalley data was super recent last year at these days if I remember correctly anyway.

  

 06/04/2019 Endgame sold 11,697 tickets including marathons and all. 20 days before release.

 

Closest day comp is 09/04/2018 (monday) when AIW sold 10,677 tickets 18 days before release. (%91.2 of Endgame this saturday)

A saturday comp is 14/4/2018 when AIW sold 5602 tickets 13 days before release. (%47.8 of Endgame this saturday)

Another saturday comp is 21/4/2018 when AIW sold 11,957 tickets 6 days before release. (%102 of Endgame this saturday)

 

Last comp is courtesy of:

 

 

AIW had a huge jump the following day, will be interesting to compare today's Endgame sales to that.

Sunday before release is a bad comp, its always a massive jump. Better comp would be the April 9 to tomorrow. Also, I actually would've expected IW to sell more tickets once the first day craziness stabilized because I would assume Endgame has definitely filled more seats than IW at the same point before released, if demand was equal for both (which it of course isn't)

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Cap Summer Tentpole

Cap

Posted
Posted (edited)

AMC Empire 25 - 4/6/2019 - AEG OW 

 

AMC Empire 25 4/6/2019 Showings Sold Total Percentage
Thursday 31 4976 6031 82.5
Friday 45 6079 10282 59.12
Saturday 41 5064 9964 50.82
Sunday 43 3272 10749 30.44
Total 160 19391 37026 52.37

 

Full Chart:

 

Spoiler

Thursday 4/4/2019 4/6/2019
Dolby   Sold Total
6:00 PM Sold Out 224 225
10:00 PM Sold Out 219 225
       
AMC Prime 3D      
8:00 PM Sold Out 176 180
       
RealD 3D      
6:15 PM Front Row 247 262
6:45 PM Front Row 135 144
7:15 PM Front Row 107 121
7:45 PM Front Row 113 126
9:00 PM Front Row 129 158
10:20 PM 75+ 210 262
10:40 PM 75+ 95 146
10:55 PM 50+ 89 144
11:20 PM 50+ 61 142
11:30 PM 25+ 45 121
       
LIMAX      
7:00 PM Sold Out 300 303
11:00 PM Sold Out 293 303
       
Standard      
6:00 PM Front Row 287 309
6:30 PM Front Row 109 122
7:00 PM Front Row 281 309
7:30 PM Front Row 245 262
8:15 PM Front Row 106 122
8:30 PM Front Row 130 145
9:15 PM Front Row 81 91
9:30 PM Front Row 79 91
9:45 PM Front Row 77 91
10:10 PM Front 2 Rows 249 309
10:30 PM Front 2 Rows 93 122
10:45 PM 75+ 268 357
10:50 PM 50+ 99 134
11:10 PM 75+ 221 309
11:40 PM 50+ 150 262
11:50 PM 50+ 58 134
Total   4976 6031
       
Friday 4/4/2019 4/6/2019
Dolby   Sold Total
2:00 AM Front 2 Rows 196 225
8:00 AM 75+ 188 225
6:00 PM Sold Out 219 225
10:00 PM Sold Out 214 225
       
       
AMC Prime 3D      
12:00 AM Front Row 158 180
4:00 AM 50+ 61 180
8:00 AM 50+ 78 180
12:00 PM Front 2 Rows 144 180
4:00 PM Front 2 Rows 149 180
8:00 PM Sold Out 175 180
       
RealD 3D      
1:15 PM >5 28 262
2:30 PM 25+ 56 309
5:15 PM 75+ 182 262
6:30 PM 75+ 228 309
9:15 PM 75+ 193 262
       
LIMAX      
3:00 AM 75+ 258 303
7:00 AM 75+ 224 303
11:00 AM Front 2 Rows 272 303
3:00 PM Front 2 Rows 268 303
7:00 PM Front Row 290 303
11:00 PM Front Row 269 303
       
Standard      
12:15 AM 50+ 50 122
12:30 AM >5 20 145
1:00 AM >5 25 158
1:15 AM >5 8 99
1:30 AM >5 7 99
1:45 AM >5 7 99
2:30 AM >5 10 44
3:30 AM 0 0 54
4:30 AM 0 3 146
5:00 AM >5 9 153
5:30 AM >5 16 134
6:30 AM 25+ 23 77
7:30 AM >5 10 126
8:30 AM 25+ 33 309
9:15 AM 25+ 55 262
10:30 AM 25+ 92 309
11:30 AM 50+ 176 377
12:30 PM 50+ 147 309
3:30 PM 50+ 210 377
4:30 PM 75+ 226 309
7:30 PM Front 2 Rows 357 377
8:30 PM Front 2 Rows 259 309
10:30 PM Front 2 Rows 236 309
11:30 PM N/A 250 377
    6079 10282
       
Saturday 4/4/2019 4/6/2019
Dolby      
2:00 AM 75+ 163 225
6:00 AM 50+ 81 225
10:00 AM Front Row 204 225
2:00 PM Front Row 213 225
6:00 PM Front Row 216 225
10:00 PM Front Row 206 225
       
AMC Prime 3D      
12:00 AM 75+ 132 180
4:00 AM 0 0 180
8:00 AM 75+ 66 180
12:00 PM Front 2 Rows 138 180
4:00 PM Front 2 Rows 151 180
8:00 PM Front 2 Rows 145 180
       
RealD 3D      
1:15 PM 25+ 58 262
3:30 PM 25+ 71 309
5:15 PM 25+ 74 262
7:30 PM 50+ 139 309
9:15 PM 25+ 33 262
       
LIMAX      
3:00 AM 50+ 128 303
7:00 AM 75+ 192 303
11:00 AM Front Row 275 303
3:00 PM Front 2 Rows 267 303
7:00 PM Front Row 275 303
11:00 PM Front 2 Rows 258 303
       
Standard      
12:30 AM N/A 31 309
1:15 AM N/A 15 262
2:30 AM >5 4 158
3:30 AM >5 2 146
4:30 AM >5 6 134
5:00 AM >5 4 126
5:30 AM >5 6 77
8:30 AM >5 16 309
9:15 AM 25+ 95 262
11:30 AM 75+ 214 309
12:30 PM 50+ 160 309
2:30 PM 50+ 219 328
4:30 PM 50+ 214 309
6:30 PM 50+ 219 328
8:30 PM 75+ 216 309
10:30 PM 25+ 139 328
11:30 PM >5 19 309
    5064 9964
       
Sunday 4/4/2019 4/6/2019
Dolby   Sold Total
2:00 AM 50+ 87 225
6:00 AM 25+ 27 225
10:00 AM Front 2 Rows 186 225
2:00 PM Front Row 201 225
6:00 PM Front Row 193 225
10:00 PM 75+ 175 225
       
AMC Prime 3D      
12:00 AM 50+ 72 180
4:00 AM 0 0 180
8:00 AM 25+ 62 180
12:00 PM 75+ 122 180
4:00 PM Front 2 Rows 129 180
8:00 PM 75+ 97 180
       
RealD 3D      
1:15 PM >5 21 262
2:30 PM >5 37 309
5:15 PM 25+ 33 262
6:30 PM >5 14 309
9:15 PM >5 13 262
       
LIMAX      
3:00 AM 25+ 35 303
7:00 AM 50+ 218 303
11:00 AM Front 2 Rows 261 303
3:00 PM Front 2 Rows 267 303
7:00 PM Front 2 Rows 276 303
11:00 PM 50+ 139 303
       
Standard      
12:30 AM 0 1 309
1:15 AM >5 10 262
2:30 AM 0 2 146
3:30 AM >5 6 134
4:30 AM >5 4 158
5:00 AM >5 4 126
5:30 AM >5 4 75
6:30 AM 0 2 129
7:30 AM >5 11 134
8:30 AM >5 3 309
9:15 AM >5 10 262
10:30 AM >5 64 309
11:30 AM 25+ 105 377
12:30 PM >5 70 309
3:30 PM 25+ 121 377
4:30 PM 25+ 59 309
7:30 PM 25+ 99 377
8:30 PM >5 29 309
10:30 PM 0 0 309
11:30 PM 0 3 377
    3272 10749
 

 

 

Notes:

- Saturday does have less showings then the rest.  I checked twice.  If I am wrong, please tell me.  I will fix it.  My eyes could just be playing tricks on me.  Sunday does tend to have bigger theaters, so that could be what boosts the seat count.

- Days run 12:00AM - 11:59PM. So even if it showed up on the Friday page, if the showing said 'Saturday', it went toward Saturday's totals. It was the only way I could keep this sane.

 

Edited by captainwondyful
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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
28 minutes ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Can say that, Endgame basically had sales worth 30% of Shazam during FSS. Around $13mn rounded down.

 

Day 1 was around $30mn, Day 2 around $15mn and Day 3 was $6mn Approx. So far $64mn in 6 days. Say $60mn.

 

Presales should be at $130m minimum by 5pm EST on previews night. 

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

AMC 25 - 4/6/2019 - AEG OW 

 

AMC 25 4/6/2019 Showings Sold Total Percentage
Thursday 31 4976 6031 82.5
Friday 45 6079 10282 59.12
Saturday 41 5064 9964 50.82
Sunday 43 3272 10749 30.44
Total 160 19391 37026 52.37

 

Full Chart:

 

  Reveal hidden contents
 

 

 

Notes:

- Saturday does have less showings then the rest.  I checked twice.  If I am wrong, please tell me.  I will fix it.  My eyes could just be playing tricks on me.  Sunday does tend to have bigger theaters, so that could be what boosts the seat count.

- Days run 12:00AM - 11:59PM. So even if it showed up on the Friday page, if the showing said 'Saturday', it went toward Saturday's totals. It was the only way I could keep this sane.

 

 

Is this for Empire 25? 

 

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted (edited)
46 minutes ago, captainwondyful said:

Notes:

- Saturday does have less showings then the rest.  I checked twice. 

Locally Saturdays do historically have one or more showings when I look at the entire region, but I suspect that theaters might be trying to cram in showings on Friday a bit more than they ordinarily might to capture the rush factor.

 

Could be wrong, but locally at least there's 279 showings so far region wide on Friday, and 277 showings so far region wide on Sat (both these numbers will go waaaay up before all is said and done).  So you're probably in the clear with your check. :)

Edited by Porthos
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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Locally Saturdays do historically have one or more showings when I look at the entire region, but I suspect that theaters might be trying to cram in showings on Friday a bit more than they ordinarily might to capture the rush factor.

 

Could be wrong, but locally at least there's 279 showings so far region wide on Friday, and 277 showings so far region wide on Sat (both these numbers will go waaaay up before all is said and done).  So you're probably in the clear with your check. :)

 

Question: I noticed for your theaters that the FSS showtimes already outnumber the Thursday showtimes by almost 50% but for my theaters the Thursday show count is about 25% ahead of the FSS. Any reason why the difference in bookings or methodology that you’d know of?

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

Question: I noticed for your theaters that the FSS showtimes already outnumber the Thursday showtimes by almost 50% but for my theaters the Thursday show count is about 25% ahead of the FSS. Any reason why the difference in bookings or methodology that you’d know of?

It's mostly because one chain (Cinema West) has already put up a near-final list for FSS.  Studio Movie Grill also put up a pretty large list, but I don't know if it's close to its final list or not.

 

Most of the others just have a partial list up.

 

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Charlie Jatinder said:

Can say that, Endgame basically had sales worth 30% of Shazam during FSS. Around $13mn rounded down.

 

Day 1 was around $30mn, Day 2 around $15mn and Day 3 was $6mn Approx. So far $64mn in 6 days. Say $60mn.

So it's already ~70% of TLJ's $85M pre-sales give or take.

 

Source for TLJ: https://deadline.com/2017/12/the-last-jedi-star-wars-opening-box-office-records-1202228444/

 

"The anomaly here is that despite advance tickets being 15% behind Force Awakens at an estimated $85M..."

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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)

So I used the historical Fandango Tracking data for AIW and am comparing it with AEG day-by-day (based on days till opening). Such a pity we are missing the first day and a half sales for AEG. But even based on the last few days, AEG is selling 3-4 times better than AIW.

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410      
2018-03-17 40 16,237      
2018-03-18 39 10,631      
2018-03-19 38 14,574      
2018-03-20 37 9,366      
2018-03-21 36 8,281      
2018-03-22 35 6,101      
2018-03-23 34 3,753      
2018-03-24 33 2,426      
2018-03-25 32 3,655      
2018-03-26 31 5,191      
2018-03-27 30 4,647      
2018-03-28 29 4,241      
2018-03-29 28 3,060      
2018-03-30 27 2,134      
2018-03-31 26 2,471      
2018-04-01 25 3,662 2019-04-02 ? Pulse down entire day
2018-04-02 24 7,257 2019-04-03 10,255 Pulse down until around 7pm CST
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-04 30,276  
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-05 17,423  
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-06 11,696  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-07 12,426 Till 10pm CST only
2018-04-07 19 3,383      
2018-04-08 18 6,363      
2018-04-09 17 10,828      
2018-04-10 16 8,670      
2018-04-11 15 13,960      
2018-04-12 14 13,332      
2018-04-13 13 7,614      
2018-04-14 12 5,602      
2018-04-15 11 9,314      
2018-04-16 10 18,403      
2018-04-17 9 19,431      
2018-04-18 8 23,790      
2018-04-19 7 18,788      
2018-04-20 6 14,281      
2018-04-21 5 12,368      
2018-04-22 4 27,180      
2018-04-23 3 48,861      
2018-04-24 2 55,376      
2018-04-25 1 68,137      
2018-04-26 0 76,734      

 

Edited by stfletch
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, stfletch said:

So I used the historical Fandango Tracking data for AIW and am comparing it with AIW day-by-day (based on days till opening). Such a pity we are missing the first day and a half sales for AEG. But even based on the last few days, AEG is selling 3-4 times better than AIW.

 

AIW Date Days to Open AIW Tickets AEG Date AEG Tickets Notes
2018-03-16 41 29,410      
2018-03-17 40 16,237      
2018-03-18 39 10,631      
2018-03-19 38 14,574      
2018-03-20 37 9,366      
2018-03-21 36 8,281      
2018-03-22 35 6,101      
2018-03-23 34 3,753      
2018-03-24 33 2,426      
2018-03-25 32 3,655      
2018-03-26 31 5,191      
2018-03-27 30 4,647      
2018-03-28 29 4,241      
2018-03-29 28 3,060      
2018-03-30 27 2,134      
2018-03-31 26 2,471      
2018-04-01 25 3,662 2019-04-02 ? Pulse down entire day
2018-04-02 24 7,257 2019-04-03 10,255 Pulse down until around 7pm
2018-04-03 23 6,866 2019-04-04 30,276  
2018-04-04 22 7,917 2019-04-05 17,423  
2018-04-05 21 5,692 2019-04-06 11,696  
2018-04-06 20 3,618 2019-04-07 12,426  
2018-04-07 19 3,383      
2018-04-08 18 6,363      
2018-04-09 17 10,828      
2018-04-10 16 8,670      
2018-04-11 15 13,960      
2018-04-12 14 13,332      
2018-04-13 13 7,614      
2018-04-14 12 5,602      
2018-04-15 11 9,314      
2018-04-16 10 18,403      
2018-04-17 9 19,431      
2018-04-18 8 23,790      
2018-04-19 7 18,788      
2018-04-20 6 14,281      
2018-04-21 5 12,368      
2018-04-22 4 27,180      
2018-04-23 3 48,861      
2018-04-24 2 55,376      
2018-04-25 1 68,137      
2018-04-26 0 76,734      

 

 

where did you get this data?

Edited by Menor
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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted (edited)
6 minutes ago, Menor said:

 

where did you get this data?

AIW data I got by using the historical data saved in the google docs from AKVALLEYS tracker here: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064

Imported the data into Excel and did some SUMIFS on anything Avengers (so includes all formats).

Then for AEG, just did the same using the standard AKVALLEY  tracker: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

 

I'll try to update with the new AEG numbers each day.

Edited by stfletch
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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stfletch said:

AIW data I got by using the historical data saved in the google docs from AKVALLEYS tracker here: https://fantasymovieleague.com/chatter/board/fml-main-chatter/topic/462064

Imported the data into Excel and did some SUMIFS on anything Avengers (so includes all formats).

Then for AEG, just did the same using the standard AKVALLEY  tracker: http://akvalley.pythonanywhere.com/static/Fandango_track.txt

How did you get the data for IW before the release week though? I couldn't find it earlier when I looked through those docs

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XXR vs XXR Global Phenomenon

XXR vs XXR

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, stfletch said:

 

So I used the historical Fandango Tracking data for AIW and am comparing it with AEG day-by-day (based on days till opening). Such a pity we are missing the first day and a half sales for AEG. But even based on the last few days, AEG is selling 3-4 times better than AIW.

 

 

True the data is missing, but we do know that Regal Cinemas said EG did double the first week sales of IW in the first 8 hours. Fandango says it best TFA by 50% in the first 24. Using your data above and making an extrapolation, I’d say around 350k tickets in you missing timeframe.

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FlashMaster659 Box Office Gold

FlashMaster659

Posted
Posted
Just now, VenomXXR said:

 

True the data is missing, but we do know that Regal Cinemas said EG did double the first week sales of IW in the first 8 hours. Fandango says it best TFA by 50% in the first 24. Using your data above and making an extrapolation, I’d say around 350k tickets in you missing timeframe.

It was AMC that said it beat TFA by 50%

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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Menor said:

How did you get the data for IW before the release week though? I couldn't find it earlier when I looked through those docs

So on the 2nd Google Doc, start by looking at the 20180423 tab. The last column gives the buy-date.

I summed for all the data on a single buy-date for all of the Avengers formats on that tab and on the 20180430, 20180507 and 20180514 tabs. After that nothing seems to have been pre-bought that far out prior to the initial opening.

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, stfletch said:

So on the 2nd Google Doc, start by looking at the 20180423 tab. The last column gives the buy-date.

I summed for all the data on a single buy-date for all of the Avengers formats on that tab and on the 20180430, 20180507 and 20180514 tabs. After that nothing seems to have been pre-bought that far out prior to the initial opening.

Oh wow that's a pretty neat way to do it. Although the final week #s seem to differ a little from the other doc, but it should be close enough for comparison

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted

The theater i work at sold 126 tickets Thursday-Sunday for Endgame today, new total is 2745/3875 (70.8%) 

 

This is the first time I've ever seen a theater completely sell out due to pre-sales. Might have happened during TFA but I can't remember.

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