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The Box Office Buzz and Tracking Thread: Electric Boogaloo

By grim22, in Numbers and Data

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Posted by Porthos,

Really depends on what you're looking for, but usually the most important takeaway for just a casual glance is the comp.  More on that in a bit.   But even that is highly dependent on a movie being either in a similar genre or having a similar pre-sale pattern as folks will buy tickets at different times during a pre-sale window thanks to a very long list of factors.   Add in that movies will have different promotional schedules during their pre-sales (review embargoes, TV ca
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Posted by Cap,

MODERATION:   Hi, everyone. It’s 6 o’clock in the morning. I have not gone to bed yet. And I am tired. And I know it’s going to be a very long weekend. Here is the new rule.   This thread is for numbers and data. Please post your theater updates. Please post your comparable data. And please talk about that comparable data here.    If you wish to do a deep dive on why you think that data might or might not suck, then take it to the respective thread of the movie in ques
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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, VenomXXR said:

 

True the data is missing, but we do know that Regal Cinemas said EG did double the first week sales of IW in the first 8 hours. Fandango says it best TFA by 50% in the first 24. Using your data above and making an extrapolation, I’d say around 350k tickets in you missing timeframe.

 

So if we just use the 'double the first week of sales compared with AIW' from Regal, that means 190k in eight hours, so yep anywhere from 300-400k in the first day and a half.

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stfletch Straight-to-DVD

stfletch

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Menor said:

Oh wow that's a pretty neat way to do it. Although the final week #s seem to differ a little from the other doc, but it should be close enough for comparison

yeah, I compared with some number I had saved on my hard drive for AIW last year when using just the tracker each day. They were pretty close but not exact. I think there is some little bits out due to daily crossover and such, but they are good enough to tell us that AEG is selling gangbusters even compared to AIW.

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Ledmonkey96 Box Office Gold

Ledmonkey96

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, poweranimals said:

Wow. Endgame is back to #1 on Fandango. This is going to be a fun next few weeks.

Not just ahead it's over double Shazam..... just noticed the Endgame 3D edged CM out of the top 5 by 8 sales for the last hour, the IMAX 2D experience is in 7th.

Edited by Ledmonkey96
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gfb Straight-to-DVD

gfb

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, stfletch said:

So I used the historical Fandango Tracking data for AIW and am comparing it with AEG day-by-day (based on days till opening). Such a pity we are missing the first day and a half sales for AEG. But even based on the last few days, AEG is selling 3-4 times better than AIW.

 

 

Thanks for this, did not have full data for AIW presales from the beginning before. 

 

Make that 16,727 total for 24 hours on 7/4/2019 btw.

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted

Avengers: Endgame Greater Sacramento Area Premiere Night Seat Report: T-18 Days and counting

 

 

Sellouts

Showings

Seats left

Total Seats

Perct Sold

TOTALS

9

221

5575

23024

75.79%

 

Total Sellouts Added Today:               1

Total Seats Sold Today:                  204

 

Infinity War Comps:

2.5166x as many tickets sold as Infinity War after six day of pre−sales.
2.0343x as many tickets sold as Infinity War 18 days before release [Infinity War has 41 days of pre−sales compared to Endgame's 23 days]
1.1209x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night.
0.9929x as many tickets sold as Infinity War at stop of tracking on release night at the exact same theaters in town.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally, unless specifically noted otherwise.

 

IW (day 6):           102 tickets sold that day [1 sellout/107 showings  | 4797/10660 seats left  | 55.00% sold]

EG (adj*) (day 6):   136 tickets sold that day [9 sellouts/221 showings | 3826/18581 seats left  | 79.41% sold]

EG (exact**)(day 6):  117 tickets sold that day [9 sellouts/195 showings | 3297/16368 seats left  | 79.86% sold]

----

IW (T-18):    7253 tickets sold so far   [2 sellout/116 showings    | 3872/11125 seats left  | 65.20% sold]  

IW (final):   13164 tickets sold at stop [59 sellouts/182 showings | 1195/15159 seats left  | 86.64% sold]

EG (adj*):   14755 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/221 showings   | 3826/18581 seats left  | 79.41% sold]

EG (exact**):  13071 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/195 showings   | 3297/16368 seats left  | 79.86% sold]

----

* EG (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

** EG (exact) is the number of tickets sold at the EXACT same theaters in town for a pure like-for-like comparison.

 

OTHER COMPS:

Spoiler

Captain Marvel:

Spoiler

 

8.3648x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel after six days of pre−sales.
5.0069x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel 18 days before release. [CM had 58 days of pre−sales versus EG's 23 days]
1.6535x as many tickets sold as Captain Marvel at stop of tracking.

 

CM (day 6):       71 tickets sold that day [0 sellouts/81 showings  |  8522/10608 seats left | 19.66% sold]

CM (T-18) :  3485 tickets sold so far     [2 sellouts/83 showings   | 7220/10705 seats left  | 32.55% sold]

CM (final):   10553 tickets sold at stop  [1 sellout/92 showings    | 9439/19992 seats left  | 52.79% sold]

EG:              17449 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/221 showings | 5575/23024 seats left  | 75.79% sold]

NOTE: I have the same sources of tracking info for Endgame as I did Captain Marvel, so the unadjusted comp is being used here, even though Endgame is playing in a couple more theaters locally. Check the main stat box for the number of tickets sold today if you want to compare it to the number of tickets Captain Marvel sold on its second day.

 

Selected Other Comps:

Spoiler

 

1.8207x as many tickets sold as Black Panther at stop of tracking.
1.8142x as many tickets sold as Deadpool 2 at stop of tracking.
2.5488x as many tickets sold as Solo at stop of tracking.
2.3691x as many tickets sold as Fallen Kingdom at stop of tracking.

NOTE: If a theater locally that is now selling tickets for reserved seating was selling them for the above movies, but as non-reserved seating for that movie, it is not counted toward the ratio of 'as many tickets sold' for the movie in question.  If a theater is brand new to the region and wasn't yet open for one of the above movies, however, it will be counted toward the ratio. It will also be counted toward the ratio if it was playing in more theaters locally.

 

BP (final):     8104 tickets sold at stop [26 sellouts/136 showings |  3377/11481 seats left  | 70.59% sold]

DP2 (final):   8133 tickets sold at stop [3 sellouts/169 showings   |  8357/16490 seats left  | 49.32% sold]

Solo (final):  5789 tickets sold at stop [5 sellouts/143 showings    |  7732/13521 seats left | 42.81% sold]

JW2 (final):   6228 tickets sold at stop [1 sellout/147 showings     |  7487/13715 seats left | 45.41% sold]

EG (adj*):   14755 tickets sold so far   [9 sellouts/221 showings   | 3826/18581 seats left  | 79.41% sold]

*EM (adj) is the number of tickets sold without the extra theaters I now have tracking info for

 

 

 

WEEKEND INFO: (all IW information is for 23 days before release)

Fri:   0 sellouts/279 showings [-1/nc] [IW: 0/214]

Sat:  0 sellouts/277 showings              [IW: 0/215]

Sun: 0 sellouts/267 showings              [IW: 0/209]

 

Sellouts:  9/221 (+1/nc)  [2D: 9/177 (+1/nc) | 3D: 0/44]

 

Breakdown of seat information in spoiler box:

Spoiler

Reserved seating information: 192 screens [IW: 82 reserved seating info at same point in time]

 

100%:       9* [+1] [IW: 2]

90-95%: 43  [+1} [IW: 10]

80-89%: 50  [+1] [IW: 13]

70-79%: 29  [-3]  [IW: 15]

60-69%: 28  [+1] [IW: 17]

50-59%: 12  [-1]  [IW: 7]

40-49%:   5  [+1] [IW: 4]

30-39%:   6  [nc]  [IW: 3]

20-29%:   5  [nc]  [IW: 4]

10-19%:   4  [nc]  [IW: 0]

0-9%:       3  [-1]  [IW: 0]

 

* includes two sellouts from non-reserved seating showings

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, Matthew said:

So, it looks like that below 50 seats situation may never arrive. 🤔🤔🤔

I didn't say it would happen tonight.  In fact, I would have been shocked if it had. ;)

 

(Also note the "exact comp" proviso I made when I got pushed on the notion slightly)

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MrGlass2 Summer Tentpole

MrGlass2

Posted
Posted 
Fandango Sales Past 24 Hours
Since: 2019-04-07 01:00:00 (US/Central - Chicago)

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	28.266%	20366	Shazam!
2	20.412%	14707	Avengers Endgame (2019)
3	11.584%	8346	Pet Sematary (2019)
4	08.172%	5888	Captain Marvel (2019)
5	07.720%	5562	Us (2019)
...
7	02.744%	1977	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
17	00.404%	291	Hellboy (2019)
19	00.273%	197	Little (2019)
21	00.235%	169	After (2019)
39	00.060%	43	Missing Link (2019)

MT 

2019-04-08 06:00:31.737912 UTC
1	31.4%	Shazam!
2	13.6%	Dumbo
3	11.4%	Pet Sematary
4	11%	Avengers: Endgame
5	9.4%	Captain Marvel

 

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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted

Cineplex Scotiabank Theatre Chinook - Calgary, AB

Avengers: Endgame

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

UltraAVX (3D) Atmos

7:00PM - 316/363 seats sold (87%) Weird. Not only did this showing not sell 1 ticket since Friday, one ticket was clearly returned.

11:00PM - 208/363 seats sold (57%)

 

UltraAVX (3D)

10:00PM - 235/406 seats sold (58%)

 

UltraAVX

6:00PM - 302/406 seats sold (74%)

 

IMAX (3D)

6:30PM - 270/279 seats sold (97%)

 

IMAX

10:30PM - 263/279 seats sold (94%)

 

3D

8:00PM - 234/330 seats sold (71%)

 

Regular

9:00PM - 171/234 seats sold (73%)

 

 

My theory about the primetime showings not growing in presales (and in a few cases decreasing) is that at this point all that's left are the undesirable seats (aka the front rows) so people are opting to either wait for more showings to be posted, or they're moving on to the weekend instead. Meanwhile, the later shows with less sales overall grew somewhat because at least there are better seats available.

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longtimereader Straight-to-DVD

longtimereader

Posted
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, JB33 said:

Cineplex Scotiabank Theatre Chinook - Calgary, AB

Avengers: Endgame

Thursday April 25, 2019

 

UltraAVX (3D) Atmos

7:00PM - 316/363 seats sold (87%) Weird. Not only did this showing not sell 1 ticket since Friday, one ticket was clearly returned.

11:00PM - 208/363 seats sold (57%)

 

UltraAVX (3D)

10:00PM - 235/406 seats sold (58%)

 

UltraAVX

6:00PM - 302/406 seats sold (74%)

 

IMAX (3D)

6:30PM - 270/279 seats sold (97%)

 

IMAX

10:30PM - 263/279 seats sold (94%)

 

3D

8:00PM - 234/330 seats sold (71%)

 

Regular

9:00PM - 171/234 seats sold (73%)

 

 

My theory about the primetime showings not growing in presales (and in a few cases decreasing) is that at this point all that's left are the undesirable seats (aka the front rows) so people are opting to either wait for more showings to be posted, or they're moving on to the weekend instead. Meanwhile, the later shows with less sales overall grew somewhat because at least there are better seats available.

Ya that's what it's like up the highway here in Edmonton. 

Edited by longtimereader
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JB33 Blockbuster

JB33

Posted
Posted
3 minutes ago, longtimereader said:

Ya that's what it's like up the highway here in Edmonton. 

Just skimmed the showtimes for the Scotiabank Theatre at West Edmonton Mall. You weren't kidding. The similarity is uncanny!

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Porthos Global Phenomenon

Porthos

Posted
Posted
41 minutes ago, JB33 said:

My theory about the primetime showings not growing in presales (and in a few cases decreasing) is that at this point all that's left are the undesirable seats (aka the front rows) so people are opting to either wait for more showings to be posted, or they're moving on to the weekend instead. Meanwhile, the later shows with less sales overall grew somewhat because at least there are better seats available.

It could also be that a few folks bought multiple sets of tickets at the same time and are keeping the best sets. Or they bought more tickets than they needed Just In Case.

 

I've also seen a couple of seats reappear from sellouts/near sellouts, and I reckon that at least some of it is folks deciding to go from a crappy seat at a good time to a less crappy seat at a later time.

 

Probably see a decent amount of shuffling like this go one when more show times get added and folks just decide to swallow the refund fee (and new ticket fee) in the quest for a 'better' seat. 

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Eric Atreides Global Phenomenon

Eric Atreides

Posted
Posted

Movie/Time Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Avengers: Endgame   N/A ***10,258 30,292 17,428 11,697 16,137
    24 days 23 days 22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days

***7pm-12am

 

Days 23-19

1525% of Captain Marvel (2.3B)

 

Cumulative

149% of Captain Marvel (228.1M)

 

Oh my God, we actually have a # that's believable...well, kinda, considering how high expectations are. Either way, the fact this hasn't dropped below 10K yet is mad impressive for this movie. Excited to see how it does this week.

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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
13 minutes ago, CoolEric258 said:

Movie/Time Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday Saturday Sunday

Avengers: Endgame   N/A ***10,258 30,292 17,428 11,697 16,137
    24 days 23 days 22 days 21 days 20 days 19 days

***7pm-12am

 

Days 23-19

1525% of Captain Marvel (2.3B)

 

Cumulative

149% of Captain Marvel (228.1M)

 

Oh my God, we actually have a # that's believable...well, kinda, considering how high expectations are. Either way, the fact this hasn't dropped below 10K yet is mad impressive for this movie. Excited to see how it does this week. 

Looking at the first 8 hours today, it doesn't look like going below 10k will happen today 

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-04-08 08:02:24 Central
RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	54.079%	2910	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	12.451%	670	Shazam!
3	06.634%	357	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
4	05.612%	302	Pet Sematary (2019)
5	03.624%	195	Captain Marvel (2019)
6	02.936%	158	Us (2019)
7	01.914%	103	Dumbo (2019)
8	01.468%	79	Hellboy (2019)
9	01.208%	65	The Best of Enemies
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TalismanRing Global Phenomenon

TalismanRing

Posted
Posted
Just now, CoolEric258 said:

No. I do include the the Wednesday # though.

 

Looking at AIWs numbers that's a massive # left off the table - especially since it's 3rd day almost triples AIW's and the last 4+ hours on Wed was 63% of AIW's full 2nd day

 

2018-03-16 41 29,410      
2018-03-17 40 16,237      
2018-03-18 39 10,631      
2018-03-19 38 14,574      
2018-03-20 37 9,366      
2018-03-21 36 8,281      
2018-03-22 35 6,101      
2018-03-23 34 3,753

 

 

 

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Menor the Destroyer Summer Tentpole

Menor the Destroyer

Posted
Posted
15 minutes ago, TalismanRing said: 

Looking at the first 8 hours today, it doesn't look like going below 10k will happen today 

Updated by @akvalley: 2019-04-08 08:02:24 Central

RANK	PERCENT	TICKETS	MOVIE
1	54.079%	2910	Avengers Endgame (2019)
2	12.451%	670	Shazam!
3	06.634%	357	Avengers Endgame  (2019)
4	05.612%	302	Pet Sematary (2019)
5	03.624%	195	Captain Marvel (2019)
6	02.936%	158	Us (2019)
7	01.914%	103	Dumbo (2019)
8	01.468%	79	Hellboy (2019)
9	01.208%	65	The Best of Enemies

I wonder if it will ever drop below 10k in the entire run tbh, I would think it should increase from here on out

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