Weekend Actuals: 36.2 M ALIEN: COVENANT | 34.7 M GOTG II | 11.7 M EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING

[Cmasterclay]

Just now, CJohn said:

  Hide contents

There is an Alien Queen on the wall in Prometheus. If David created the perfect Alien Xenomorph, how are there draws of it in the walls in Prometheus?

Pirates will do less than Apocalypse, IMO, but Baywatch will give 2017 the victory over 2016 because I am expecting much better numbers from it than what Alice did.

I've been fairly bearish on Pirates, but 65 million seems doable given tracking and solid reactions. Depp really hurts it but otherwise this franchise was bigger at its lowest point than X-Men ever was at its highest, for what that's worth. Also, marketing has been everywhere compared to X-Men. Apocalypse just had zero buzz, and I feel people are ready for another Pirates movie. I could see a solid breakout if Depp wasn't such a shitty toxic asshole in the lead. I think it does about 72 for the three day.

[WrathOfHan]

2 minutes ago, CJohn said:

  Hide contents

There is an Alien Queen on the wall in Prometheus. If David created the perfect Alien Xenomorph, how are there draws of it in the walls in Prometheus?

Pirates will do less than Apocalypse, IMO, but Baywatch will give 2017 the victory over 2016 because I am expecting much better numbers from it than what Alice did.

Spoiler

Are we sure that was a queen? Looking up the image on Google, it looks more like a Neomorph.

 

[grim22]

Did @CJohngive the Alien franchise its last rites yet? The online sentiment is so divided on this movie, haven't seen anything like it since Prometheus. Won't be surprised if the OW is below AvP.

 

Fox just weren't able to make it into a big event movie, despite favorable reviews. Prometheus just poisoned that well too much. Still wondering why they moved from being the big fish in August to an also ran in May.

[Cmasterclay]

Central Intelligence also had terrible presales and an embargo that broke super late, and it ended up being a well-reviewed hit. So I haven't given up on Baywatch yet. Yea it has a franchise name but honestly is anyone in the world treating that like a franchise movie instead of a Rock buddy comedy?

[John Marston]

Pirates is interesting. Can't get a clear read on what it will do. Early tracking beginning of the month was good and Fandango want to see is good and Disney seems to actually be marketing it and not treating it like a throwaway as well so who knows though. 

Edited May 20, 2017 by John Marston

[WrathOfHan]

Honestly, Apes is going to be an underperformer. The last two trailers generated very little buzz on social media and YT. 

[CJohn]

Just now, Cmasterclay said:

I've been fairly bearish on Pirates, but 65 million seems doable given tracking and solid reactions. Depp really hurts it but otherwise this franchise was bigger at its lowest point than X-Men ever was at its highest, for what that's worth. Also, marketing has been everywhere compared to X-Men. Apocalypse just had zero buzz, and I feel people are ready for another Pirates movie. I could see a solid breakout if Depp wasn't such a shitty toxic asshole in the lead. I think it does about 72 for the three day.

I don't think it is impossible, and IMO, Disney is doing a great job in trying to make it feel fresh with the marketing, but it still seems like there is zero buzz for it (but then again, I don't like in America). Maybe it can pull 90M for the 4 day weekend. 

[WrathOfHan]

I'm being bullish on POTC with 85/105. With the underperformance of Alien and GOTG's typical CBM legs, I think audiences will really go for it. Its presence on Pulse this week is a great sign that it could breakout. 

Edited May 20, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[CJohn]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Honestly, Apes is going to be an underperformer. The last two trailers generated very little buzz on social media and YT. 

Apes is gonna do 170-190M IMO.

3 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Did @CJohngive the Alien franchise its last rites yet? The online sentiment is so divided on this movie, haven't seen anything like it since Prometheus. Won't be surprised if the OW is below AvP.

 

Fox just weren't able to make it into a big event movie, despite favorable reviews. Prometheus just poisoned that well too much. Still wondering why they moved from being the big fish in August to an also ran in May.

I liked it.

 

I agree, FOX failed to make it look like an event movie. Prometheus felt like an event. This didn't.

[Cmasterclay]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Honestly, Apes is going to be an underperformer. The last two trailers generated very little buzz on social media and YT. 

The first trailer did well and it's followed the same pattern the last one did. That franchise is the adult alternative of the entire summer. If reviews are great like the last two it should do well.

[John Marston]

3 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

Honestly, Apes is going to be an underperformer. The last two trailers generated very little buzz on social media and YT. 

 

 

I think it will make a little  less than the last but a more older skewing franchise like Apes won't dominate social media. 

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Central Intelligence also had terrible presales and an embargo that broke super late, and it ended up being a well-reviewed hit. So I haven't given up on Baywatch yet. Yea it has a franchise name but honestly is anyone in the world treating that like a franchise movie instead of a Rock buddy comedy?

Central Intelligence had a costar with a better track record with Kevin Hart compared to the unreliable Zac Efron (whose only $50M+ grossers as a star are 17 Again, The Lucky One, and Neighbors).

[John Marston]

Alien Covenant was never going to be huge. Alien is not a huge franchise. 

 

 

 

 

But still Fox made a lot of bad decisions. Moving the release date up and not shooting in 3D like the last one (the last one looked amazing in 3D and it would have helped overseas). 

[Subzero]

20 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

I think that with BATB and Star Wars locked, and Thor/Justice League gaining traction, there's a not bad at all chance that only one movie from this summer makes it into the top five domestic for this year. However, I think Wonder Woman beats Justice League and Thor, and I think that on a good day Spider-Man can challenge both of those, too. It's not a great summer box office wise, but it has bigger stuff near the top than 2014 and is probably deeper than 2015 IMO which had some huge breakouts but also tons of misses. We'll see quality wise, though. 2014 was pretty bad at the box office but absolutely rocked quality wise, best summer in ages. 

I think WW will make it, with all the buzz surrounding it. I don't think Spidey will make it, it's a little tiring watching the 3rd Spidey in 10 year .. just too much reboot for that franchise.

[JennaJ]

I still just don't get the reasoning behind moving AC from an empty August to a loaded May. It turned out as stupid as it initially looked.

Fox only has themselves to blame for the legs this is gonna have.

 

Edited May 20, 2017 by JennaJ

[WrathOfHan]

http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/POTC5_US_Interop.pdf

 

Very nice, POTC is just under 2 hours without credits. Disney's trailer attachments are Cars and Last Jedi.

 

http://digitalcinema.bydeluxe.com/site/dlxportal/docs/Baywatch_US_Interop.pdf

 

I'm sure An Inconvenient Sequel will go over well with dudebros  

[TwoMisfits]

42 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

i think so too.

1.gotg2

2.dm3

3.ww vs spidey

 

Right, flip Spidey to the top, and GOTG to #4...and that's the summer order:)...(at least I said it was end of April, and I'm still sticking to it:)...

Edited May 20, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, Subzero said:

I think WW will make it, with all the buzz surrounding it. I don't think Spidey will make it, it's a little tiring watching the 3rd Spidey in 10 year .. just too much reboot for that franchise.

I tend to agree. My top five of the year goes SW, BATB, GOTG, WW, and then either Thor or DM3 (with Justice League and Spidey the next couple out). 

[WrathOfHan]

I really don't know where DM3 is going to end up domestically. It doesn't feel like we're getting bombarded with tie-ins like Minions or SLOP (thank god).

[Premium George]

5 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Right, flip Spidey to the top, and GOTG to #4...and that's the summer order:)...(at least I said it was end of April, and I'm still sticking to it:)...

So, you see spidey, WW, DM3 doing more than 370. That will make this summer great.

Very difficult for spidey and WW to do that.

Edited May 20, 2017 by damnitgeorge08