WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[HenryjRhetorics]

Nice hold for gotg2. All 4 days being underestimated.

 

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[Biggestgeekever]

So far it looks like everything is coming in better than projected

 

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
1	(1)	Pirates of the Caribbean: D…	Walt Disney	$15,493,514	-19%	4,276	$3,623	$78,476,767	4
-	(-)	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2	Walt Disney	$6,282,030	-18%	3,871	$1,623	$340,505,078	25
-	(-)	Baywatch	Paramount Pictures	$4,603,072	-26%	3,647	$1,262	$27,713,457	5
-	(-)	Alien: Covenant	20th Century Fox	$2,768,611	-25%	3,772	$734	$60,205,331	11
-	(-)	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The L…	20th Century Fox	$1,650,498	+9%	3,174	$520	$15,303,332	11
-	(-)	Snatched	20th Century Fox	$1,106,907	-20%	2,658	$416	$41,364,783	18
-	(-)	The Boss Baby	20th Century Fox	$735,188	+17%	1,342	$548	$169,718,129	60
-	(-)	Beauty and the Beast	Walt Disney	$550,442	+3%	1,076	$512	$501,014,183	74
-	(-)	The Fate of the Furious	Universal	$399,455	-26%	1,358	$294	$222,942,385	46
-	(-)	Lowriders	BH Tilt	$188,620	-23%	334	$565	$5,378,765	18
-	(-)	Gifted	Fox Searchlight	$133,237	-2%	380	$351	$23,761,037	53
-	(-)	Smurfs: The Lost Village	Sony Pictures	$95,851	-5%	362	$265	$43,711,826	53
-	(-)	The Zookeeper’s Wife	Focus Features	$56,585	+1%	165	$343	$17,175,396	60
-	(-)	Get Out	Universal	$50,170	-22%	188	$267	$175,292,780	95
-	(-)	Their Finest	STX Entertainment	$42,875	-5%	107	$401	$3,422,261	53
-	(-)	The Circle	STX Entertainment	$36,242	-12%	208	$174	$20,384,556	32
-	(-)	Born in China	Walt Disney	$34,985	+17%	230	$152	$13,463,168	39
-	(-)	Logan	20th Century Fox	$28,208	-33%	159	$177	$226,110,895	88
-	(-)	Sleight	High Top Releasing	$6,595	-32%	49	$135	$3,921,025	32
-	(-)	Hidden Figures	20th Century Fox	$4,191	-23%	29	$145	$169,316,326	156
-	(-)	Risk	Neon	$1,665	-7%	8	$208	$188,282	25
-	(-)	Phoenix Forgotten	Entertainment Studi…	$1,237	+2%	5	$247	$3,591,923	39

[The Panda]

Prometheus is partly responsible for Covenant having a mild OW (I'd still focus more on the marketing), however it's Covenant's quality and mismarketing that's causing the terrible legs and underperformance.

[HenryjRhetorics]

28.2M Age of Ultron
27.2M Volume 2
20.0M Civil War

After catching up with CW on its 3rd week, now it's doing Ultron on its 4th. If GOTG2 drops less than 60% today, it's gonna start beating Ultron just like it did Civil War. Stiff legs huh...

CW is now just 37M ahead of GOTG2. [emoji57]

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[a2k]

12 minutes ago, JohnnyGossamer said:

I mean, I know people expected more from this one but, all things considered, a 4-day just under $80M isn't bad especially if it does well OS. Does it still have a shot at $750M+ OS?

 

If it does 165-170 dom, 170-175 Ch and 50-60 Japan, then that's 385-405,

needs 345-365 OS-Ch-Japan which is not impossible but a high number imo.

Thinking O/U 725.

 

[a2k]

SMURFS 3

Domestic Box Office	$43,711,826
International Box Office	$141,793,838
Worldwide Box Office	$185,505,664

 

 

 

 

[HenryjRhetorics]

That Monday drop for GV2 sticks out like a sore thumb. It's way worse than Ultron, Civil War, and IM2 which dropped 19%, 17%, and 21% respectively. Even TASM2 fell 19%

Just about right. Same class, same results.[emoji106]

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[ZeeSoh]

Similar legs as ultron gets guardians to about 390m. So far it has displayed better legs than ultron. So depending on how it holds against WW this weekend it will do 390m+

[a2k]

4 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

Just about right. Same class, same results.

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the actual monday drop came in just in line with other CBMs : 18% vs 40% estimate

-

(-)

Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2

Walt Disney

$6,282,030

-18%

3,871

$1,623

$340,505,078

[meriodejaneiro]

13 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

28.2M Age of Ultron
27.2M Volume 2
20.0M Civil War

After catching up with CW on its 3rd week, now it's doing Ultron on its 4th. If GOTG2 drops less than 60% today, it's gonna start beating Ultron just like it did Civil War. Stiff legs huh...

CW is now just 37M ahead of GOTG2.

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37M? I think it's $68M ahead of GOTG2 340M vs 408M

[a2k]

If GOTG2 does 401 and matches CA2's multplier, it will be insanity....insanity I tell you.

But I think 385-390 should happen - still great 2.63-2.66x multiplier

[HenryjRhetorics]

From here on out, Ultron did 44M, Civil War with 41M which would bring GOTG2's projected range to 381-384M but I'm seeing better numbers. Should do 390. But the more important thing is, 380 is locked at this point with an outside chance of maybe even cracking the big 400M.

How WW and CU affect GOTG's 5th weekend can either make or break all these numbers.

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[Biggestgeekever]

7 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

Similar legs as ultron gets guardians to about 390m. So far it has displayed better legs than ultron. So depending on how it holds against WW this weekend it will do 390m+

It's probably going to diverge quite a bit thanks to Wonder Woman. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped 60% or more since that's a textbook example of direct competition.

[HenryjRhetorics]

37M? I think it's $68M ahead of GOTG2 340M vs 408M

I meant same 25th day total. [emoji57]

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[TwoMisfits]

15 minutes ago, a2knet said:

SMURFS 3

Domestic Box Office	$43,711,826
International Box Office	$141,793,838
Worldwide Box Office	$185,505,664

 

 

 

 

Took the kids today for $2/Tuesday...was an okay movie...passed the time enjoyably.  I gave it a C+, since "the care bear stare" equivalent isn't exactly a plot climax answer to rely on...but the movie wasn't made for me...

My kids said "good for a kid movie, 8 out of 10, A-, and great" in age order...so, I'm not surprised this made money and was profitable, even if it took a worldwide save...

[CasualName99]

Nice hold for GV2. Without WW it could have a shot at 400m. But 380m is good.

[grim22]

From Paramount's Baywatch post mortem:

 

Quote

While the TV show was an action-drama, Paramount and Skydance decided to go in a different direction with the Baywatch movie adaptation, making it a comedy infused with as many F-bombs and penis jokes as brawn and bikinis.
 

In doing so, they hoped to emulate Sony's wildly successful R-rated comedic adaptation of 21 Jump Street, which earned $201.6 million in spring 2012, followed by $331.3 million for 22 Jump Street in summer 2014.
 

But the plot failed. The most striking difference between 21 Jump Street and Baywatch was the critical reaction. The former, starring Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill, garnered an 85 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, compared to a 19 percent rotten rating for Baywatch.
 

"The reviews really hurt the film, which scored great in test screenings. We were all surprised," says Paramount's Megan Colligan, president of worldwide marketing and distribution. "It is a brand that maybe relied on a positive critical reaction more than we recognized. The cast could not have done more work in aggressively promoting Baywatch. Dwayne gave this 150 percent."

 

Roughly 45 percent of Baywatch ticket buyers were under the age of 25. Conventional wisdom might hold that younger consumers don't care as much about reviews as older moviegoers, but a recent internal study at Paramount concluded that younger ticket buyers pay close attention to aggregated scores on Rotten Tomatoes.

"There's no good way to battle it," says Colligan.

[CJohn]

6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

From Paramount's Baywatch post mortem:

 

The red tomato is the law:

[Biggestgeekever]

It's something else that a site called rotten tomatoes has major Hollywood Studios scared shitless.

 

What a time to be alive.

[Krissykins]

That's funny that everyone at Paramount and the industry were surprised by Baywatch underperforming.

 

 

But The Rock remains the only person that's optimistic lol. 

 

I wish the film was as advertised.