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WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

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From Paramount's Baywatch post mortem:

 

Quote

While the TV show was an action-drama, Paramount and Skydance decided to go in a different direction with the Baywatch movie adaptation, making it a comedy infused with as many F-bombs and penis jokes as brawn and bikinis.
 

In doing so, they hoped to emulate Sony's wildly successful R-rated comedic adaptation of 21 Jump Street, which earned $201.6 million in spring 2012, followed by $331.3 million for 22 Jump Street in summer 2014.
 

But the plot failed. The most striking difference between 21 Jump Street and Baywatch was the critical reaction. The former, starring Channing Tatum and Jonah Hill, garnered an 85 percent fresh rating on Rotten Tomatoes, compared to a 19 percent rotten rating for Baywatch.
 

"The reviews really hurt the film, which scored great in test screenings. We were all surprised," says Paramount's Megan Colligan, president of worldwide marketing and distribution. "It is a brand that maybe relied on a positive critical reaction more than we recognized. The cast could not have done more work in aggressively promoting Baywatch. Dwayne gave this 150 percent."

 

Roughly 45 percent of Baywatch ticket buyers were under the age of 25. Conventional wisdom might hold that younger consumers don't care as much about reviews as older moviegoers, but a recent internal study at Paramount concluded that younger ticket buyers pay close attention to aggregated scores on Rotten Tomatoes.

"There's no good way to battle it," says Colligan.

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6 minutes ago, grim22 said:

From Paramount's Baywatch post mortem:

 

The red tomato is the law:

Rotten_Tomatoes.png

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It's something else that a site called rotten tomatoes has major Hollywood Studios scared shitless.

 

What a time to be alive.

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That's funny that everyone at Paramount and the industry were surprised by Baywatch underperforming.

 

 

But The Rock remains the only person that's optimistic lol. 

 

I wish the film was as advertised. 

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57 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

It's probably going to diverge quite a bit thanks to Wonder Woman. I wouldn't be surprised if it dropped 60% or more since that's a textbook example of direct competition.

 

55% max. I dont see a precedent for a 60% drop.

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14 minutes ago, baumer said:

 

55% max. I dont see a precedent for a 60% drop.

Captain America 2 dropped 52% when Amazing Spider-Man 2 opened in its 5th weekend, and CA wasn't coming off a holiday and there wasn't another opener on top of Spider-Man.

 

There's no precedent for a 60% drop because the situation this week has pretty much never happened with superhero films. I see Guardians 2 dropping 55-60%.

Edited by Biggestgeekever
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56 minutes ago, grim22 said:

From Paramount's Baywatch post mortem:

 

Note to Paramount: The only way to fight Rotten Tomatoes is to    not make crappy movies.

I am very sure the lament at Paramount is "Why didn't we make this an Action Drama like the original?"

41 minutes ago, Krissykins said:

That's funny that everyone at Paramount and the industry were surprised by Baywatch underperforming.

 

 

But The Rock remains the only person that's optimistic lol. 

 

I wish the film was as advertised. 

I like the Rock a lot,but he making himself look silly with his insistence this film is a big success.

At the risk of getting political, he has Donald Trump disease.

 

What surprised me is people talking about the absence of the female stars in skimpy bathing suits. Talk about taking away a prime draw for the film....

Edited by dudalb

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5 minutes ago, dudalb said:

Note to Paramount: The only way to fight Rotten Tomatoes is to    not make crappy movies.

I am very sure the lament at Paramount is "Why didn't we make this an Action Drama like the original?"

 

That is exactly what their post-mortem is saying no ?:

 

The reviews really hurt the film

 

No where does Paramount seem to talk about that comedy was maybe a bad option, it was one with the best precedent and the only one to go with that brand imo.

 

But if it is true that the movie was testing well, it was perfectly legitimate for them to think they had a good product in their hands (B+ cinemascore isn't that bad either)

 

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Maybe their testing was flawed, given that the audience rating is no great shakes, either.

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2 hours ago, wileECoyote said:

Guardians 4-Day

 

2017/05/26 3 $5,375,096 +124% 3,871 $1,389   $318,691,023 22
2017/05/27 - $7,883,339 +47% 3,871 $2,037   $326,574,362 23
2017/05/28 - $7,648,686 -3% 3,871 $1,976   $334,223,048 24
2017/05/29 - $6,282,030 -18% 3,871 $1,623   $340,505,078 25

 

 

Vs Estimates

2 GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2
Buena Vista

3,871
$5,322,000

+121.4% / $1,375
$318,637,927 / 22
$7,814,000

+46.8% / $2,019
$326,451,927 / 23
$7,505,000

-4% / $1,939
$333,956,927 / 24
$4,512,000

-39.9% / $1,166
$338,468,927 / 25

So I was correct, that 40% drop was bunk. 400M is still alive, we'll see the WW impact.

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6 minutes ago, Orestes said:

Maybe their testing was flawed, given that the audience rating is no great shakes, either.

 

I imagine it was, it probably often is (if studio seem not sure with their embargo release date strategy), people that accept to go see unfinished movie for free are maybe a different audience a little than then general audience that end up seeing it, added the factor of being in the first of seeing a franchise movie, the room being full, etc... (that and simply small sample size).

 

Many movie did test terrible too and ended up great, like Boogie Night, because it can be hard to match the good audience to a movie you screen.

 

For studio exec that have seen 22 different version of the movie, knew the script for a long time, it must specially for comedy, just become impossible to tell after a while, if it is funny or not.

Edited by Barnack

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Yup, Guardians Vol 2 is the Empire Strikes Back of the franchise, it will be reconized as such in the future.

:shades::rock:

 

 

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59 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Captain America 2 dropped 52% when Amazing Spider-Man 2 opened in its 5th weekend, and CA wasn't coming off a holiday and there wasn't another opener on top of Spider-Man.

 

There's no precedent for a 60% drop because the situation this week has pretty much never happened with superhero films. I see Guardians 2 dropping 55-60%.

 

I dont. Theres too much interest in GoTG2. 55%.

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Great to see Guardians underestimated for each of the four days (and not just that ridiculous Monday drop which was obvious).

 

If it manages to hold against WW next week, that would be great.

In any case it's already proven itself week to week, it's really just gravy now whether it goes much beyond 380m or not.

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4 hours ago, druv10 said:

So I was correct, that 40% drop was bunk. 400M is still alive, we'll see the WW impact.

 

Yeah it'll all depend on next weekend. If it falls hard it may even shoot down 390.

 

Just did a quick comp chart...

 

Post MD weekend drops, 4-Day MD weekend multiplier, GotG2 gross with same multiplier

CACW -49%.  2.53, 382

AoU -47.4%. 2.69, 386

IM3 -56.3%. 2.47, 380

TA -44.2%. 3.11, 398

 

 

 

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POTC Monday was a full 1.5 higher than APOC - 15.5 vs 14.0 - after starting behind on OD (due previews).

 

APOC fell 53.6% on Tuesday for 6.5.

Thinking a 55% drop (a little more than APOC) and 7.0 Tuesday for POTC.

 

It's Monday hold was surprisingly strong and could correct on Tuesday imo, and fall more than APOC even though Discount Tue have been getting annually stronger.

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11 hours ago, wileECoyote said:

 

Yeah it'll all depend on next weekend. If it falls hard it may even shoot down 390.

 

Just did a quick comp chart...

 

Post MD weekend drops, 4-Day MD weekend multiplier, GotG2 gross with same multiplier

CACW -49%.  2.53, 382

AoU -47.4%. 2.69, 386

IM3 -56.3%. 2.47, 380

TA -44.2%. 3.11, 398

 

 

 

385 looks like a reasonable target right now.

high-end of my expectations...was thinking 345/365/385 (low-end/realistic/high-end) after the ow.

Edited by a2knet
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1 hour ago, a2knet said:

POTC Monday was a full 1.5 higher than APOC - 15.5 vs 14.0 - after starting behind on OD (due previews).

 

APOC fell 53.6% on Tuesday for 6.5.

Thinking a 55% drop (a little more than APOC) and 7.0 Tuesday for POTC.

 

It's Monday hold was surprisingly strong and could correct on Tuesday imo, and fall more than APOC even though Discount Tue have been getting annually stronger.

 

What will be interesting is if it can have a 2nd weekend better than its Full Friday OD number. Not sure it can. 

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