WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[a2k]

85.3 5-day

 

Wed 4.60 (-32%)

Thu 4.10 (-11%) [1st week: 94]

Fri 7.0 (+70%)

Sat 10 (+43%)

Sun 7 (-30%) [2nd weekend: 24, -62%]

 

118 10-day

 

 

Edited May 31, 2017 by a2knet

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

85.3 5-day

 

Wed 4.60 (-32.4%)

Thu 4.10 (-10%) [1st week: 94]

Fri 6.75 (+65%)

Sat 9.50 (+40%)

Sun 6.75 (-29%) [2nd weekend: 23, -63.5%]

 

117 10-day

 

 

 

 

-63% would be nasty. Hope it can stay in the 50% range. Don't see why it would have a worse Friday increase than Apocalypse since it is more family friendly

Edited May 31, 2017 by John Marston

[HenryjRhetorics]

How much drop in theaters are we looking for GOTG2 this weekend?

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[a2k]

6 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

 

-63% would be nasty. Hope it can stay in the 50% range. Don't see why it would have a worse Friday increase than Apocalypse since it is more family friendly

 

yeah i updated the numbers a bit...but still used -62% and 24 2nd weekend.

 

6 minutes ago, a2knet said:

85.3 5-day

 

Wed 4.60 (-32%)

Thu 4.10 (-11%) [1st week: 94]

Fri 7.0 (+70%)

Sat 10 (+43%)

Sun 7 (-30%) [2nd weekend: 24, -62%]

 

118 10-day

 

 

 

with WONDR opening I don't see how it manages a fall much below 60%.

ALICE2 57.9%

APOC 65.3%

DOFP 64.2%

 

It should do better than APOC and DOFP but ALICE2 like 58% at least will happen imo.

But ALICE2 like legs overall would take it past 180...smth I am not betting on.

So 60-62% 24-25 weekend probably.

I went with 24 due to competition : ALICE2 faced TMNT2's 35 ow + MeB4U's 19 ow...while POTC faces 100+ from WONDR + 20 from CU

[John Marston]

1 minute ago, a2knet said:

 

yeah i updated the numbers a bit...but still used -62% and 24 2nd weekend.

 

 

with WONDR opening I don't see how it manages a fall much below 60%.

ALICE2 57.9%

APOC 65.3%

DOFP 64.2%

 

It should do better than APOC and DOFP but ALICE2 like 58% at least will happen imo.

But ALICE2 like legs overall would take it past 180...smth I am not betting on.

So 60-62% 24-25 weekend probably.

I went with 24 due to competition : ALICE2 faced TMNT2's 35 ow + MeB4U's 19 ow...while POTC faces 100+ from WONDR + 20 from CU

 

 

I say anything below 60% drop will be fine. Good news is if Mummy underperforms then Pirates won't have any more direct competition for two weeks and Father's Day and Cars 3 opening should give it a boost

Edited May 31, 2017 by John Marston

[ZeeSoh]

31 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

How much drop in theaters are we looking for GOTG2 this weekend?

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It lost fewer theatres than Civil War & AOU  this past weekend. If i had to guess i would say maybe 450-600 theatres perhaps. Even with 600 drop (compared to 500 for ultron and 311 for CW) guardians will still havemote theatres than both of these movies at same point. 

 

Deadline is saying 2.2 million (65% fall) for guardians on Tuesday which is better than CW 1.55m (66.4% fall) and AOU 1.95m (70% fall)

 

IT's WOW fall for tuesday of 35% is comparable to AOU (35.5%) but better than CW (46.5%)

 

it's on track for 390 unless WW completely destroys its legs

Edited May 31, 2017 by ZeeSoh