WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[HenryjRhetorics]

Is there a chance GOTG2 beats CW domestically?

Like a 5% possibility?[emoji57]

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk

[filmscholar]

 

As we crossed the 40th Anniversary of "Star Wars" this weekend.  Thinking about when Memorial Day Weekend was like a Event at the box office.  "Guardians" is holding on though, definitely benefiting from a not so strong May.   Sorry but I can't even blame audiences.  "Baywatch" just isn't an event film like that, yes it was a phenomenon on television in the 90's but I don't think the nostalgia was strong enough for a breakout big screen adaptation.  People are missing what made the "Nostalgia Effect" work for "Jurassic World" or even "The Force Awakens" or "Beauty and the Beast".   It wasn't just about bringing old franchises back.  People missed those franchises.  Also TV to movie Adaptions blockbusters don't always work (Mission: Impossible yes, A-Team not so much) for example.  With that said, the budget was kept in check and it is "R-rated" so the numbers aren't that bad to me.  "Pirates" and "Alien" are both coming off polarizing previous films even though  "Tides" and "Prometheus" were successful at the box office.  Overseas will save both and we will get "Pirates 6" and "Alien 7" eventually.   Ironically both sequels come 5 plus years later.  "Pirates" will mostly likely struggle to get 200 Million domestic.   I guess June and July are going to have to save the summer.

[dudalb]

8 hours ago, Krissykins said:

The Rock posting a video on Instragram "celebrating a big opening weekend for Baywatch". 

 

 

Ummm. 

God, The Rock has caught Donald Trump disease.....

[grey ghost]

17 minutes ago, baumer said:

1	PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES Buena Vista 4,276	$23,395,000 -- / $5,471 $23,395,000 / 1	N/A	N/A	N/A
2	BAYWATCH Paramount 3,647	$5,730,000 +24.4% / $1,571 $10,336,514 / 2	N/A	N/A	N/A
3	GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 Buena Vista 3,871	$5,322,000 +121.4% / $1,375 $318,637,927 / 22	N/A	N/A	N/A
4	ALIEN: COVENANT Fox 3,772	$3,000,000 +68.5% / $795 $49,822,181 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
5	EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING Warner Bros. 2,801	$2,060,000 +140.9% / $735 $17,416,113 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
6	DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL Fox 3,174	$1,275,000 +151.7% / $402 $10,456,961 / 8	N/A	N/A	N/A
7	SNATCHED Fox 2,658	$1,060,000 +76.2% / $399 $37,339,625 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
8	KING ARTHUR: LEGEND OF THE SWORD Warner Bros. 2,503	$870,000 +61% / $348 $31,525,202 / 15	N/A	N/A	N/A
9	THE BOSS BABY Fox 1,342	$415,000 +80.1% / $309 $167,672,190 / 57	N/A	N/A	N/A
10	THE FATE OF THE FURIOUS Universal 1,358	$371,000 +95.2% / $273 $221,421,870 / 43	N/A	N/A	N/A
11	BEAUTY AND THE BEAST (2017) Buena Vista 1,076	$350,000 +50.6% / $325 $499,350,435 / 71	N/A	N/A	N/A
12	HOW TO BE A LATIN LOVER Pantelion 669	$222,000 +121.8% / $332 $30,132,580 / 29	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	GIFTED Fox Searchlight 380	$100,000 +60.1% / $263 $23,343,438 / 50	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	SMURFS: THE LOST VILLAGE Sony / Columbia 362	$69,000 +64.9% / $191 $43,401,439 / 50	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	BORN IN CHINA Buena Vista 230	$57,000 +43.8% / $248 $13,387,028 / 36	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	POWER RANGERS (2017) Lionsgate 157	$34,000 +121.3% / $217 $85,164,488 / 64	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	LOGAN Fox 159	$30,000 +104.7% / $189 $225,995,272 / 85	N/A	N/A	N/A
-	HIDDEN FIGURES Fox 29	$3,700

 

It says 23.9 m for PotC5 in the title.

 

 

 

Edited May 27, 2017 by grey ghost

[dudalb]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

Awful numbers for MD weekend apart from Guardians hold, Everything Everything and Wimpy Kid. Pirates 5 will most likely just about outgross Apocalypse in the end - initial tracking of 110M will be way off, the hype just died in the past 2 weeks. Baywatch looking awful and RIP the Alien franchise, it will shed theaters next weekend.

I admit I am happy about Baywatch underperforming so badly; I like it when a studio makes a crap film an it blows up in their face.
Granted, with it's low budget Baywatch will still probably make a modest profit but I am happy that we won't have a franchise inflicted on us.

[boxofficeth]

That A:C drop might put 75M total into question!!!

And my derby score plunge miserably. 

[MCKillswitch123]

It'll be fucking hilarious when Covenant will struggle to outgross the 78M made by the original Alien.... in 1979.

Edited May 27, 2017 by MCKillswitch123

[commonsense88]

Poor Paramount 

Monster Trucks lost money

Ghost in a Shell lost money

Baywatch probably lost money

69 mil budget before marketing probably 110 mil with marketing and only going to make 50 mil domestic,  Transformers, Mission Impossible are the only ones making money.

[Daxtreme]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It'll be fucking hilarious when Covenant will struggle to outgross the 78M made by the original Alien.... in 1979.

 

[75Live]

In the theater waiting for Baywatch to start.  

[filmlover]

4 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It'll be fucking hilarious when Covenant will struggle to outgross the 78M made by the original Alien.... in 1979.

If they make another one, I'm convinced it'll barely pass the second Alien vs. Predator from 2007 at best. RIP this franchise.

[Caladbolg]

11 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

Is there a chance GOTG2 beats CW domestically?

Like a 5% possibility?

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk
 

 

I don't think there is a chance at all.  Comparing day to day totals CW is currently about $50m ahead of G2. That lead will shrink as G2 is showing better legs than the quite front loaded CW.  But $50m is a good bit to overcome especially with the competition upcoming. All this "$400m is still on the table"  talk is a bit silly at this point when it's shaping up to finish around $370-380m.

[m3racer123]

22 minutes ago, HenryjRhetorics said:

Is there a chance GOTG2 beats CW domestically?

Like a 5% possibility?

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk
 

I don't think so, the highest I can see it going is 395+ with Disney then pushing it barely past 400m like Frozen.

[YM!]

Does anyone know what type of hold GV2 needs for next weekend for $400M domestic total? I know it's impossible but I'm curious.

[YM!]

Still standing by my predictions for $120M-$140M OW for Wonder Woman and $40M-$50M OW for Underpants. A barren May (besides GV2) and lack of family films will help both!

[HenryjRhetorics]

Does anyone know what type of hold GV2 needs for next weekend for $400M domestic total? I know it's impossible but I'm curious.

A 50% drop would be great. Anything better is pretty much in line with GOTG2's dailies, surprising.

Ultron did 11M on its 5th. I don't see why GOTG2 won't do the same. Yeah, I know there's WW and all but we'll see.

Sent from my E6533 using Tapatalk

[filmscholar]

2 minutes ago, MCKillswitch123 said:

It'll be fucking hilarious when Covenant will struggle w/outgross the 78M made by the original Alien.... in 1979.

 

"Alien" Adjust to about 280 in today's dollars domestically.   As we are seeing, "Pirates 5" won't even sell that many tickets domestically.   "Alien" was a game changer back then for Horror in a Sci-Fi context.  "Covenant" numbers domestically show how polarizing "Prometheus" was as it's suffering the dreaded sequel drop.  Ridley tired to expand the mythology but the lack of "Alien" and unanswered questions hurt "Prometheus" in these last 5 years.   He made a crucial mistake though.  You don't make an "Alien" movie without the Alien.  

 

People are clearly on the fence now after "Prometheus" which wasn't a bad film but it had flaws.   I think he even admitted in an interview that "I should of never take that guy out of the story and the all future films should always involve him as a threat." in reference to the Alien not being a focal point in "Prometheus."   I think that's why the marketing had so much Alien in it.   With that said, after this weekend, "Covenant" should be the 3rd highest grossing Alien Film worldwide only behind "Prometheus" and "AVP".   It will finish 2nd when it's all over.  But it's not looking good on the Adjusted chart.  It could finish behind "Resurrection".  "Prometheus" is the only Alien film to break 100 Million during it's original run unadjusted.  

 

Worldwide

 

1	Prometheus	Fox	$403.4	$126.5	31.4%	$276.9	68.6%	2012
2	Alien Vs. Predator	Fox	$172.5	$80.3	46.5%	$92.3	53.5%	2004
3	Alien Resurrection	Fox	$161.4	$47.8	29.6%	$113.6	70.4%	1997
4	Alien 3	Fox	$159.8	$55.5	34.7%	$104.3	65.3%	1992
5	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$136.1	$49.8	36.6%	$86.2	63.4%	2017
6	Aliens	Fox	$131.1	$85.2	65%	$45.9	35%	1986
7	Aliens Vs. Predator - Requiem	Fox	$128.9	$41.8	32.4%	$87.1	67.6%	2007
8	Alien	Fox	$102.9	$78.9	76.7%	$24.0	23.3%	1979
TOTAL:			$1,396.0	$565.8	40.5%	$830.3	59.5%	-

 

 

Adjusted

 

Rank	Title (click to view)	Studio	Adjusted Gross	Unadjusted Gross	Release
1	Alien	Fox	$278,037,000	$78,944,891	5/25/79
2	Aliens	Fox	$202,915,500	$85,160,248	7/18/86
3	Prometheus	Fox	$138,317,000	$126,477,084	6/8/12
4	Alien 3	Fox	$118,165,300	$55,473,545	5/22/92
5	Alien Vs. Predator	Fox	$114,282,600	$80,282,231	8/13/04
6	Alien Resurrection	Fox	$92,050,900	$47,795,658	11/26/97
7	Aliens Vs. Predator - Requiem	Fox	$52,364,000	$41,797,066	12/25/07
8	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$49,822,200	$49,822,181	5/19/17
TOTAL:			$1,045,954,400	$565,752,904	-

[nick64]

@WrathOfHan

All Eyez on Me

Rough Night

Amityville

The Beguiled

Atomic Blonde

It Comes at Night

All Saints

Polaroid

Captain Underpants

Kidnap

[Caladbolg]

12 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Does anyone know what type of hold GV2 needs for next weekend for $400M domestic total? I know it's impossible but I'm curious.

 

It would need holds similar to Iron Man 1, assuming when actuals come out Tuesday that GV2  had $26m 4 day wknd for $339m total. Iron Man total after Memorial Weekend was $258m and made $60m more thereafter.

[titanic2187]

well, if GOTG2 followed GOTG from here, GOTG2 could reach $400m!