WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[The Panda]

17 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Han Solo will likely do sub $150M four day and under $400M domestic.

 

Likely do?  The movie hasn't started marketing yet at all, any predicts right now are just wild guesses.

[marveldcfox]

The next movie that's going to take a massive beating domestically is Transformers. I want that to flop so hard..like sub 150M. 

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, Biggestgeekever said:

Yep, it's sort of crazy how close to each other they. And Pirates faced it's decline the same summer Transformers started.

 

Dreamworks may be vindicated this summer for never trying to make Shrek 5.

 

 

 

 

Tf5 can drop to something like 800m ww and that's still more than enough to make another 

[TwoMisfits]

2 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

The next movie that's going to take a massive beating domestically is Transformers. I want that to flop so hard..like sub 150M. 

 

No need to want - you're probably about right for the DOM total, maybe even a touch high (at least according to my summer 15:)...

[YM!]

Summer 2018 will be a bloodbath but very glorious for films. You have 3-4 films that'll do $400M+ domestic and a handful of blockbusters and breakouts. The top 5 for the summer can all do $350M+.

1.) Incredibles 2 $150M/$465M

2.) Jurassic World 2 $190M/$460M

3.) Infinity War $210M/$450M

4.) Han Solo $115M/$135M/$380M

5.) Deadpool 2 $145M/$350M

6.) Alita: Battle Angel $75M/$220M

7.) Ant Man 2 $85M/$205M

8.) MI6 $70M/$200M

9.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $50M/$175M/Dumbo? $65M/$175M

10.) Bumblebee $65M/$150M

 

 

The Nun, Barbie, O8, Skyscraper, Scarface, Meg, Amusement Park and many more could breakout too.

Edited May 26, 2017 by YourMother

[PPZVGOS]

14 minutes ago, GiantCALBears said:

I guess my memory is fuzzy but in retrospect expectations should've been more conservative. Guess we were having an TA to AOU sort of feeling.

 

Yes, @Biggestgeekever is absolutely correct. Expectations for POTC3 were through the roof. Dead Man's Chest was a juggernaut and Depp could do no wrong back then. That movie was as hotly anticipated as Age of Ultron, no exaggeration there.  

 

 

[YM!]

7 minutes ago, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

Likely do?  The movie hasn't started marketing yet at all, any predicts right now are just wild guesses.

Han Solo even though a SWS film, doesn't seem like a much see film and it's their first solo character film, not to mention, the competition in June will hurt it.

[Alli]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Summer 2018 will be a bloodbath but very glorious for films. You have 3-4 films that'll do $400M+ domestic and a handful of blockbusters and breakouts. The top 5 for the summer can all do $350M+.

1.) Incredibles 2 $150M/$465M

2.) Jurassic World 2 $190M/$460M

3.) Infinity War $210M/$450M

4.) Han Solo $115M/$135M/$380M

5.) Deadpool 2 $145M/$350M

6.) Alita: Battle Angel $75M/$220M

7.) Ant Man 2 $85M/$205M

8.) MI6 $70M/$200M

9.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $50M/$175M/Dumbo? $65M/$175M

10.) Bumblebee $65M/$150M

 

 

 

Next summer is full of sequels just like this summer. i can see a few of them disappointing

[Daxtreme]

Just now, YourMother said:

Han Solo even though a SWS film, doesn't seem like a much see film and it's their first solo character film, not to mention, the competition in June will hurt it.

 

[Empire]

Only 5.5M previews for Pirates....

 

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Summer 2018 will be a bloodbath but very glorious for films. You have 3-4 films that'll do $400M+ domestic and a handful of blockbusters and breakouts. The top 5 for the summer can all do $350M+.

1.) Incredibles 2 $150M/$465M

2.) Jurassic World 2 $190M/$460M

3.) Infinity War $210M/$450M

4.) Han Solo $115M/$135M/$380M

5.) Deadpool 2 $145M/$350M

6.) Alita: Battle Angel $75M/$220M

7.) Ant Man 2 $85M/$205M

8.) MI6 $70M/$200M

9.) Hotel Transylvania 3 $50M/$175M/Dumbo? $65M/$175M

10.) Bumblebee $65M/$150M

 

 

The Nun, Barbie, O8, Skyscraper, Scarface, Meg, Amusement Park and many more could breakout too.

 

At least 1/2 of these will be too high b/c of a sequelitis that will again set in...if there's nothing but sequels/remakes and they aren't better than originals, audiences will stay home and enjoy swimming over movies...

 

 

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

Next summer is full of sequels just like this summer. i can see a few of them disappointing

Agreed, I see JW2 being like how AOU was to the Avengers, and although I see IW doing $200M+ OW it'll have shit legs and do under Ultron domestic. Han Solo I question. Dead2ool is decreasing due to stronger competition. Bumblebee will flop hard, AM2 will be like TDW (enough to barely do $200M domestic), HT3 I'm also unsure off. The only reason why I have I2 so high is not only nostalgia but it'd be the first major animated movie since Peter Rabbit.

[Nova]

Although next year has a lot of sequels, the majority of those sequels are coming off of very popular/loved films. Unless the sequels end up being turds, I think the majority of them are going to perform extremely well. 

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

At least 1/2 of these will be too high b/c of a sequelitis that will again set in...if there's nothing but sequels/remakes and they aren't better than originals, audiences will stay home and enjoy swimming over movies...

 

 

That also wouldn't surprise me too.

[Nova]

I feel like sequelitis sets in, when the first movie made a ton of money but wasn't exactly beloved/well liked. 

 

But the studio green lights a sequel because $$$. 

 

But like i said, a lot of the sequels coming out next year are sequels to films that were very well liked by the GA. I don't see sequelitis hitting unless the films are just horrendous. 

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Although next year has a lot of sequels, the majority of those sequels are coming off of very popular/loved films. Unless the sequels end up being turds, I think the majority of them are going to perform extremely well. 

Mamma Mia 2 will definitely be the most fun sequel run to watch either way given the 10 year gap between the first and the second, because it could end up anywhere.

[babz06]

March 2018 again looks Lila a better schedule than most of the 2018 summer films. (IMO)

 

Red Sparrow

A Wrinkle in Time

Tomb Raider

Robin Hood

Untitled Dreamworks animation

Ready Player One

 

mostly because of no sequels, reboots are still there but we can't have everything.

 

Edited May 26, 2017 by babz06

[Nova]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Mamma Mia 2 will definitely be the most fun sequel run to watch either way given the 10 year gap between the first and the second, because it could end up anywhere.

Reminds me of my big fat Greek wedding sequel. And I think it'll end up performing about the same...probably just a bit better. 

[YM!]

In terms of superhero movies outside of teamup movies, Black Panther and Wonder Woman seem like the best candidates for a $130M+ OW.

[DAJK]

5.5 doesn't seem awful to me, doesn't pirates sorta play to families as well?

 

60M 3-day doesn't seem dead