WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[FantasticBeasts]

11 minutes ago, Nova said:

I feel like sequelitis sets in, when the first movie made a ton of money but wasn't exactly beloved/well liked. 

 

But the studio green lights a sequel because $$$. 

 

But like i said, a lot of the sequels coming out next year are sequels to films that were very well liked by the GA. I don't see sequelitis hitting unless the films are just horrendous. 

Jurassic World is the one that had a kind of mixed reception which may affect this.

[filmlover]

5 minutes ago, babz06 said:

March 2018 again looks Lila a better schedule than most of the 2018 summer films. (IMO)

 

Red Sparrow

A Wrinkle in Time

Tomb Raider

Robin Hood

Untitled Dreamworks animation

Ready Player One

 

mostly because of no sequels, reboots are still there but we can't have everything.

 

I hope Tomb Raider is decent just for Alicia Vikander's sake. I expect Robin Hood to be another King Arthur though, sorry Taron Egerton.

[Jonwo]

14 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Agreed, I see JW2 being like how AOU was to the Avengers, and although I see IW doing $200M+ OW it'll have shit legs and do under Ultron domestic. Han Solo I question. Dead2ool is decreasing due to stronger competition. Bumblebee will flop hard, AM2 will be like TDW (enough to barely do $200M domestic), HT3 I'm also unsure off. The only reason why I have I2 so high is not only nostalgia but it'd be the first major animated movie since Peter Rabbit.

 

Anubis is out in March 2018, not to mention Aardman and Laika have films so the family market won't be totally starved 

[miketheavenger]

2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Jurassic World is the one that had a kind of mixed reception which may affect this.

JW definitely did not have a mixed reception among audiences. It managed a 3x multiplier despite opening to over 200m. Even with the help of summer weekdays that's still mighty impressive and shows that word-of-mouth was great.

[John Marston]

 

Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya

It was 20yrs ago this wknd when #LostWorld obliterated opening wknd #boxoffice record w/ $72.1M 3day & $92.7M over long #MemorialDay wknd.

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

Anubis is out in March 2018, not to mention Aardman and Laika have films so the family market won't be totally starved 

The book's writer said the movie hasn't even been greenlight yet. 

 

bruce zick @Brucezick

Hi, @HappyCreech . Wish I knew!! Still undecided, hopefully if the Mummy movie does well, it will be officially greenlit. Thanks.

 

Besides even though I tend to be more optimistic about animated films on here box office wise, stop motion hasn't done well historically. Early Man also opens the week after Peter Rabbit. 

[TwoMisfits]

20 minutes ago, Nova said:

I feel like sequelitis sets in, when the first movie made a ton of money but wasn't exactly beloved/well liked. 

 

But the studio green lights a sequel because $$$. 

 

But like i said, a lot of the sequels coming out next year are sequels to films that were very well liked by the GA. I don't see sequelitis hitting unless the films are just horrendous. 

 

I think it also sets in where there's nothing but sequels and remakes...folks are like "what are you seeing this summer?" and the response is "I dunno - just seems like a lot of pointless sequels...maybe I'll check one out but nothing excites me yet..."

 

Other than all the online deals from the Atom/Fandango fight for customers (which I'm gonna keep saying helped Feb/Mar this year), this spring, you had a balance of requested remakes (B&TB), desired ending sequels, and lots of fresh material - some which hit big and some which missed big, but which got folks talking about all the movies.  Now, you've had all sequels and remakes save for 2 comedies and a teen romance in 4 weeks of wide releases...that's out of balance...that's hurting the box office...

Edited May 26, 2017 by TwoMisfits

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, John Marston said:

 

Gitesh Pandya @GiteshPandya

It was 20yrs ago this wknd when #LostWorld obliterated opening wknd #boxoffice record w/ $72.1M 3day & $92.7M over long #MemorialDay wknd.

Those were the days. Ain't I right, @Tele Came Back?

[DAR]

58 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Han Solo will likely do sub $150M four day and under $400M domestic.

Right now minimum it does is 450 domestic.  The brand is just too strong right now

[YM!]

1 minute ago, filmlover said:

Those were the days. Ain't I right, @Tele Came Back?

You know Tele back in his days as an 1,000 year old owned a pet T-Rex.

[grey ghost]

38 minutes ago, marveldcfox said:

The next movie that's going to take a massive beating domestically is Transformers. I want that to flop so hard..like sub 150M. 

 

I guess that's why they don't call you MarvelDCParamount. 

[Jonwo]

13 minutes ago, babz06 said:

March 2018 again looks Lila a better schedule than most of the 2018 summer films. (IMO)

 

Red Sparrow

A Wrinkle in Time

Tomb Raider

Robin Hood

Untitled Dreamworks animation

Ready Player One

 

mostly because of no sequels, reboots are still there but we can't have everything.

 

 

Ready Player One has huge potential but I think we need the first trailer but it's got a great release date, an appealing premise, and Spielberg. I'm thinking $60-75m OW and over $200m domestic but it could go higher 

[Mockingjay Raphael]

If Jurassic World had mixed reception, so did Avengers 1, both had identical runs.

[YM!]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

Ready Player One has huge potential but I think we need the first trailer but it's got a great release date, an appealing premise, and Spielberg. I'm thinking $60-75m OW and over $200m domestic but it could go higher 

Thinking RPO could be a huge breakout. We just need a trailer though.

[filmlover]

1 minute ago, YourMother said:

You know Tele back in his days as an 1,000 year old owned a pet T-Rex.

Of course.

 

[The Panda]

31 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Han Solo even though a SWS film, doesn't seem like a much see film and it's their first solo character film, not to mention, the competition in June will hurt it.

 

Doesnt mean sub-400m?  Reminds me of Rogue One, same arguments.

 

I can see sub-500m, but not 400m.

[Jonwo]

3 minutes ago, YourMother said:

Thinking RPO could be a huge breakout. We just need a trailer though.

 

The first trailer will likely debut either with Dunkirk or at Comic Con

[Nova]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

I think it also sets in where there's nothing but sequels and remakes...folks are like "what are you seeing this summer?" and the response is "I dunno - just seems like a lot of pointless sequels...maybe I'll check one out but nothing excites me yet..."

 

Other than all the online deals from the Atom/Fandango fight for customers (which I'm gonna keep saying helped Feb/Mar this year), you had a balance of requested remakes (B&TB), desired ending sequels, and lots of fresh material - some which hit big and some which missed big, but which got folks talking about all the movies.  Now, you've had all sequels and remakes save for 2 comedies and a teen romance in 4 weeks of wide releases...that's out of balance...that's hurting the box office...

But you also have to look at the quality of said sequels and the quality of the films before it. It was not even a month ago that GOTG2 opened and it's doing extremely well. I'm not saying that GOTG2 is the rule or whatever but what I'm saying is, if the sequel is actually good and the first film was also good, then there's no reason why the films won't do well. For example....who was asking for POTC in the states? Was anyone asking for a Baywatch remake? Prometheus pretty much ruined the Alien franchise and while I thought AC was good, it wasn't good enough where I'd be telling people to go and watch it. 

 

People keep asking for original films but like Hollywood puts out a string of original films, and they flop anyways even when they are good. So that leaves us with sequels...and said sequels will be in good shape as long as 1). Theyre of quality 2). People actually want the sequel and 3). The previous film was good to the point where it doesn't put a bad taste in people's mouth 

 

Having said that...I see a few films that are sequels/reboots/remakes flopping next year. But it's not because the GA is tired of sequels or remakes but because 1). The previous films weren't any good or 2). There wasn't any demand for a reboot or remake

[YM!]

2 minutes ago, DAARRRRR said:

Right now minimum it does is 450 domestic.  The brand is just too strong right now

 

Just now, The Panda of the Caribbean said:

 

Doesnt mean sub-400m?  Reminds me of Rogue One, same arguments.

 

I can see sub-500m, but not 400m.

I'm not denying how powerful Star Wars is, however it has a lot of competition with less advantageous position for legs unlike holiday releases. On its second week it deals with Deadpool 2 which'll take away its PLF and IMAX screens and potentially open to $150M OW. On the third weekend it deals with O8 and Bumblebee, both of which could do $45M-$50M OW. On its fourth weekend Incredibles 2 after a long family film drought opens and could also have a big OW, and then JW2 opens on its fifth weekend which could do around $185M-$210M OW.

[FantasticBeasts]

10 minutes ago, miketheavenger said:

JW definitely did not have a mixed reception among audiences. It managed a 3x multiplier despite opening to over 200m. Even with the help of summer weekdays that's still mighty impressive and shows that word-of-mouth was great.

I talked with a lot of people that were disappointed, myself included.

I don't think WoM was as good as legs suggest. Maybe not mixed but there was not unanimous praise either.