WEEKEND THREAD | 3-DAY ESTIMATES: Pirates - 62M ; Baywatch - 18M; Alien - 10.5M (71% drop) like. F8 crosses 1B OS.

[The Panda]

1 hour ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I ain't watches 13 reasons because I don't have Netflix (though I do have some morbid curiosity) but doesn't it kinda seem like suicide glorification?

 

It is, it's also a terrible show all around.  

[eddyxx]

Who was the poster last week that said Guardians could have a better weekend than Baywatch? Some one replied saying it wasn't likely.

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, eddyxx said:

Who was the poster last week that said Guardians could have a better weekend than Baywatch? Some one replied saying it wasn't likely.

Well, it wasn't likely. That doesn't mean it was impossible  

[Heat Vision]

Should I watch Pirates or Covenant? 

[The Fast and the Furiosa]

29 minutes ago, TalismanRing said:

 

The drop calculation might be due to loss of drive in double features with Pirates.

It might lose some, but not every drive in has the GOTG/Pirates pairing. My rule of thumb is 100k for every 10 mil for the opener, so it wouldn't really account for the difference. Not to mention drive ins rarely operate on Sundays so it's not dropping from an "inflated" total 

Edited May 29, 2017 by The Fast and the Furiosa

[75Live]

2 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

Should I watch Pirates or Covenant? 

 

 Both

[MrFanaticGuy34]

3 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

Should I watch Pirates or Covenant? 

Well, you could watch both if you can/want.

 

But if you ask me.....I'll go with the Pirates first.

Edited May 29, 2017 by MrFanaticGuy34

[TalismanRing]

13 minutes ago, eddyxx said:

Who was the poster last week that said Guardians could have a better weekend than Baywatch? Some one replied saying it wasn't likely.

 

Someone asked.  I said it was quite likely

 

(should have followed through with that on my Derby but was hedging against Baywatch doing slightly better than the early numbers indicated)

[a2k]

12 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

Should I watch Pirates or Covenant? 

Pirates of the Covenant: Dead Men Don't Hear You Scream

Edit: Alien vs Pirates : Curse of the Black Goo

Edited May 29, 2017 by a2knet

[Arlborn]

9 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

Should I watch Pirates or Covenant? 

Pirates if you enjoyed any other Pirates movie.

 

Covenant has toxic WOM but I haven't watched it myself.

[The Futurist]

3 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

Pirates if you enjoyed any other Pirates movie.

 

Covenant has toxic acid WOM but I haven't watched it myself.

 

[a2k]

TW	LW	Title (click to view)	Studio	Weekend Gross	% Change	Theater Count / Change		Average	Total Gross	Budget*	Week #
1	N	Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Men Tell No Tales	BV	$77,044,000	-	4,276	-	$18,018	$77,044,000	$230	1
2	2	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2	BV	$25,153,000	-27.4%	3,871	-476	$6,498	$338,468,927	$200	4
3	N	Baywatch	Par.	$23,000,000	-	3,647	-	$6,307	$27,606,514	$69	1
4	1	Alien: Covenant	Fox	$13,150,000	-63.6%	3,772	+11	$3,486	$59,972,181	$97	2
5	3	Everything, Everything	WB	$7,375,000	-37.1%	2,801	-	$2,633	$22,731,113	$10	2
6	6	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The Long Haul	Fox	$5,800,000	-18.6%	3,174	+17	$1,827	$14,981,961	$22	2
7	4	Snatched	Fox	$4,875,000	-37.8%	2,658	-853	$1,834	$41,154,625	$42	3
8	5	King Arthur: Legend of the Sword	WB	$4,145,000	-42.0%	2,503	-1,199	$1,656	$34,800,202	$175	3
9	8	The Boss Baby	Fox	$2,300,000	-19.2%	1,342	-729	$1,714	$169,557,190	-	9
10	9	Beauty and the Beast (2017)	BV	$1,931,000	-24.1%	1,076	-716	$1,795	$500,931,435	$160	11
11	7	The Fate of the Furious	Uni.	$1,853,985	-42.7%	1,358	-929	$1,365	$222,904,855	$250	7
12	10	How to be a Latin Lover	PNT	$1,300,000	-36.6%	669	-279	$1,943	$31,210,580	-	5

[ZeeSoh]

Just as GOTG2's sunday was underestimated, its monday is being lowballed too. 

 

Guardians fell 4% on sunday which is comparable to Civil War which fell 4.1% but is slightly worse than AOU which fell 2.9%

 

No way does guardians fall 40% today when CW fell 17% and AOU fell 19.2%. Its fall should be in the low 20%

 

It's WoW fall is also better than both Civil War and AoU. Similar legs as AoU will take it to at least 385. 375M+ is locked now

Edited May 29, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[a2k]

Rank*	Title	Friday 5/26 (Estimates)	Saturday 5/27 (Estimates)	Sunday 5/28 (Estimates)	Monday 5/29 (Estimates)
1	PIRATES OF THE CARIBBEAN: DEAD MEN TELL NO TALES Buena Vista 4,276	$23,395,000 -- / $5,471 $23,395,000 / 1	$20,284,000 -13.3% / $4,744 $43,679,000 / 2	$18,927,000 -6.7% / $4,426 $62,606,000 / 3	$14,438,000 -23.7% / $3,377 $77,044,000 / 4
2	GUARDIANS OF THE GALAXY VOL. 2 Buena Vista 3,871	$5,322,000 +121.4% / $1,375 $318,637,927 / 22	$7,814,000 +46.8% / $2,019 $326,451,927 / 23	$7,505,000 -4% / $1,939 $333,956,927 / 24	$4,512,000 -39.9% / $1,166 $338,468,927 / 25
3	BAYWATCH Paramount 3,647	$5,730,000 +24.4% / $1,571 $10,336,514 / 2	$6,600,000 +15.2% / $1,810 $16,936,514 / 3	$6,240,000 -5.5% / $1,711 $23,176,514 / 4	$4,430,000 -29% / $1,215 $27,606,514 / 5
4	ALIEN: COVENANT Fox 3,772	$3,000,000 +68.5% / $795 $49,822,181 / 8	$3,900,000 +30% / $1,034 $53,722,181 / 9	$3,650,000 -6.4% / $968 $57,372,181 / 10	$2,600,000 -28.8% / $689 $59,972,181 / 11
5	DIARY OF A WIMPY KID: THE LONG HAUL Fox 3,174	$1,270,000 +150.7% / $400 $10,451,961 / 8	$1,660,000 +30.7% / $523 $12,111,961 / 9	$1,515,000 -8.7% / $477 $13,626,961 / 10	$1,355,000 -10.6% / $427 $14,981,961 / 11
6	EVERYTHING, EVERYTHING Warner Bros. 2,801	$2,070,000 +142% / $739 $17,426,113 / 8	$2,150,000 +3.9% / $768 $19,576,113 / 9	$1,805,000 -16% / $644 $21,381,113 / 10	$1,350,000 -25.2% / $482 $22,731,113 / 11
7	SNATCHED Fox 2,658	$1,065,000 +77.1% / $401 $37,344,625 / 15	$1,465,000 +37.6% / $551 $38,809,625 / 16	$1,365,000 -6.8% / $514 $40,174,625 / 17	$980,000 -28.2% / $369 $41,154,625 / 18
8	KING ARTHUR: LEGEND OF THE SWORD Warner Bros. 2,503	$870,000 +61% / $348 $31,525,202 / 15	$1,220,000 +40.2% / $487 $32,745,202 / 16	$1,175,000 -3.7% / $469 $33,920,202 / 17	$880,000 -25.1% / $352 $34,800,202 / 18
9	THE BOSS BABY Fox 1,342	$420,000 +82.2% / $313 $167,677,190 / 57	$670,000 +59.5% / $499 $168,347,190 / 58	$625,000 -6.7% / $466 $168,972,190 / 59	$585,000 -6.4% / $436 $169,557,190 / 60
10	BEAUTY AND THE BEAST (2017) Buena Vista 1,076	$350,000 +50.6% / $325 $499,350,435 / 71	$649,000 +85.4% / $603 $499,999,435 / 72	$523,000 -19.4% / $486 $500,522,435 / 73	$409,000 -21.8% / $380 $500,931,435 / 74
11	THE FATE OF THE FURIOUS Universal 1,358	$375,090 +97.4% / $276 $221,425,960 / 43	$569,665 +51.9% / $419 $221,995,625 / 44	$535,780 -5.9% / $395 $222,531,405 / 45	$373,450 -30.3% / $275 $222,904,855 / 46
12	HOW TO BE A LATIN LOVER Pantelion 669	$221,000 +120.8% / $330 $30,131,580 / 29	$348,000 +57.5% / $520 $30,479,580 / 30	$408,000 +17.2% / $610 $30,887,580 / 31	$323,000 -20.8% / $483 $31,210,580 / 32

[Apollo2xx]

22 minutes ago, Heat Vision said:

Should I watch Pirates or Covenant? 

Definitely Pirates

[redfirebird2008]

Deadline going full retard. They claim it's down 34% from At World's End 4-day. More like down 50% excluding inflation and down at least 60% including inflation. 

[grim22]

1 minute ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Deadline going full retard. They claim it's down 34% from At World's End 4-day. More like down 50% excluding inflation and down at least 60% including inflation. 

 

More telling, OST's second weekend 4-day over MD is two-thirds of the opening weekend for Pirates 5. OST really benefited from having MD weekend on its second weekend to soften the overall drop.

[a2k]

7 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said:

Deadline going full retard. They claim it's down 34% from At World's End 4-day. More like down 50% excluding inflation and down at least 60% including inflation. 

 

Yeah it's 153 vs 77. However as Thursday for AWE was counted as Day 1 as opposed to previews (and it did do a huge 13m on Thu) Deadline's small brains got confused and they are using Thu-Sun as the 4-day.  Even if they are technically right, it makes sense to include Monday in the 4-day...and if that's a no-no then don't make the comparison at all.

Edited May 29, 2017 by a2knet

[redfirebird2008]

7 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Yeah it's 153 vs 77. However as Thursday for AWE was counted as Day 1 as opposed to previews (and it did do a huge 13m on Thu) Deadline's small brains got confused and they are using Thu-Sun as the 4-day.  Even if they are technically right, it makes sense to include Monday in the 4-day...and if that's a no-no then don't make the comparison at all.

 

Actually it's probably worse than that. They are comparing the new movie's 4-day with AWE's Friday-Saturday-Sunday excluding Thursday preview for AWE. Including the preview, it was at $127.9 million. Would be a 40% drop, but they said 34%. AWE's 3-day without preview money was $114.7 million. 

Edited May 29, 2017 by redfirebird2008

[a2k]

If OST was even slightly better, say as okay as DMTNT (from what I hear...haven't seen it), then this one would have opened somewhat better.

After OST's reception, the fall in stature for 3D, the six year gap, etc...DMTNT doing 180-200 would have been acceptable. But that too seems out of reach.

Hoping it gets to 180 but 160-170 is looking likely.

Edited May 29, 2017 by a2knet