SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY | 179.1 M overseas ● 392.9 M worldwide

[LeoC]

3 minutes ago, John Marston said:

sub 400m overseas a possibility? 

It's almost a certainty.

[Purple Minion]

Release calendar, as per Screendaily. Early forecasts = $300M+ WW OW.

 

SOLO lands in France, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Indonesia, Philippines on Wednesday.

Thursday brings debuts in the UK, Russia, South Korea, Germany, Brazil, Australia, Austria, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, most of Latin America, and most smaller European territories.

China is the expected highlight on Friday, which also sees debuts in Mexico, Spain, India, Poland, South Africa, Turkey, Vietnam. Japan is the only major territory not opening this weekend and receives the tentpole on June 29.

[pepsa]

On 21-5-2018 at 5:21 AM, John Marston said:

sub 400m overseas a possibility? 

 

I think it's almost locked to do less right?

RO did $520m, it will lose atleast:

China $50m

SK $4m

Brazil $5m

 

And tose are numbers we are sure of atm.  So that would decrease it to $460m os and a drop of +40% in those markets. It's going to bleed in the UK for sure. Even if it opens as high as RO in dollar it won't have the same legs because of no december release. So a drop of $20m might not be to crazy.

[pepsa]

20 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

Release calendar, as per Screendaily. Early forecasts = $300M+ WW OW.

 

SOLO lands in France, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Indonesia, Philippines on Wednesday.

Thursday brings debuts in the UK, Russia, South Korea, Germany, Brazil, Australia, Austria, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, most of Latin America, and most smaller European territories.

China is the expected highlight on Friday, which also sees debuts in Mexico, Spain, India, Poland, South Africa, Turkey, Vietnam. Japan is the only major territory not opening this weekend and receives the tentpole on June 29.

That would be huge win, they might be a tad optimistic.

[Heretic]

This might miss $50m in UK. 

[pepsa]

6 minutes ago, Heretic said:

This might miss $50m in UK. 

 

That would be down $30m + $50m china + 10m SK+Brz thats down $90m in 4 markets.

To compare RO did $172.5m in those markets. That is a drop of 52%, led by China.

[Valonqar]

Have they counted tickets from Galapagos, X Mas Islands and Arctic and Antarctica research stations yet? Where are the numbers? 

[pepsa]

17 minutes ago, Valonqar said:

Have they counted tickets from Galapagos, X Mas Islands and Arctic and Antarctica research stations yet? Where are the numbers? 

tomorrow

On thursday we get the Wednesday numbers, and the countries that do have good tracking systems didn't open on wednesday. (Like SK)

Edited May 23, 2018 by pepsa

[Valonqar]

11 minutes ago, pepsa said:

tomorrow

On thursday we get the Wednesday numbers, and the countries that do have good tracking systems didn't open on wednesday. (Like SK)

Ah, OK! Thanks! 

[Blaze Heatnix]

Sub 255/265 million domestic and 250/300 million overseas. 

 

Less than 600 million worldwide, in my view. 

[Taruseth]

On 22.5.2018 at 10:17 PM, Purple Minion said:

Release calendar, as per Screendaily. Early forecasts = $300M+ WW OW.

 

SOLO lands in France, Italy, Belgium, Denmark, Finland, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Switzerland, Indonesia, Philippines on Wednesday.

Thursday brings debuts in the UK, Russia, South Korea, Germany, Brazil, Australia, Austria, Hong Kong, Malaysia, New Zealand, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Argentina, most of Latin America, and most smaller European territories.

China is the expected highlight on Friday, which also sees debuts in Mexico, Spain, India, Poland, South Africa, Turkey, Vietnam. Japan is the only major territory not opening this weekend and receives the tentpole on June 29.

300M where????

That might happen if the dollar suddenly loses half it's value.

[Aristis]

This looks to open to less than $100M OS

[Purple Minion]

13 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

300M where????

That might happen if the dollar suddenly loses half it's value.

'Solo: A Star Wars Story' heading towards $300m-plus global bow

https://www.screendaily.com/news/solo-a-star-wars-story-heading-towards-300m-plus-global-bow/5129594.article

[Taruseth]

	TFA	RO	TLJ	Solo
Dom	936,6	532,2	620,2	325
Uk	180	81,4	111,1	50
Germany	111,4	46,6	83,2	25
Japan	97,9	39,2	66,7	25
France	88,5	39,4	65	25
Australia	67,3	37,5	44,9	25
China	124,2	69,5	42,6	10
Rest	462,3	210,3	298,9	115
Rest + China	586,5	279,8	341,5	125
Os Total	1131,6	523,9	712,4	275
Major M.	1481,7	776,3	991,1	475
MM-Dom	545,1	244,1	370,9	150
WW Total	2068,2	1056,1	1332,6	600
% Dom	45,29	50,39	46,54	54,17
% OS	54,71	49,61	53,46	45,83
% Major M.	71,64	73,51	74,37	79,17
% Rest	22,35	19,91	22,43	20,83
% MM -Dom	26,36	23,11	27,83	25,00

 

And I might overestimate Dom.

 

But it shows well how much Solo most likely will loose in the big markets.

30+M in the Uk

50+M in China

10+M in Japan, France, Germany, Australia 

That combines too 120+M 

Dom probably more than 200M.

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, Purple Minion said:

'Solo: A Star Wars Story' heading towards $300m-plus global bow

https://www.screendaily.com/news/solo-a-star-wars-story-heading-towards-300m-plus-global-bow/5129594.article

It was meant more like 'where do they think it will gross enough.'

[salvador-232]

Ugh, now I need this to do well in Chile so Infinity War doesn't break Coco's record. Come on Solo, I'll root for you in Chile and just in Chile. 

[Taruseth]

20 minutes ago, Aristis said:

This looks to open to less than $100M OS

It does

UK, Germany, France and Australia accounted for 39.1% of the OS Total of RO (42.7% of TLJ and 39.5% of TFA)

So for 100M they should open to more than 40M (as Japan was part of the OS total for RO and isn't part of the OW which increases the share for those four markets)

And I don't know if it will be able to do that. (Which btw. is absolutely crazy to think about, considering the fact, that TFA opened in the UK ($50.7M (okay it opened earlier)), Ger ($27.2M (Solo actually has Wednesday previews compared to midnight for TFA), France ($21.4M (same day)) and Australia ($20.6M) with 119.9M on their own!!!

 

For $40M it would need 15 10 8 7 from those four markets.

 

I think under 100M OS OW

Edited May 23, 2018 by Taruseth

[pepsa]

10 minutes ago, Purple Minion said:

'Solo: A Star Wars Story' heading towards $300m-plus global bow

https://www.screendaily.com/news/solo-a-star-wars-story-heading-towards-300m-plus-global-bow/5129594.article

Wait, what are they smoking?

I have done the math on the main Solo forum.

Let's say 150m DoM 4-day OW (high end of projections)

And every opening of RO - China (cause china will only open to 10m, but lets be generous and give it 15m) and - Japan (for obvious reasons)

That would make for an opeing of $138.6m, so if it doesn't do less than RO in any country it would do $138.6m OS.

That means $288.6m WW opening. This isn't happening. You can quote me on this. OS won't go over $140m.

[pepsa]

3 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

It does

UK, Germany, France and Australia accounted for 39.1% of the OS Total of RO (42.7% of TLJ and 39.5% of TFA)

So for 100M they should open to more than 40M (as Japan was part of the OS total for RO and isn't part of the OW which increases the share for those four markets)

And I don't know if it will be able to do that. (Which btw. is absolutely crazy to think about, considering the fact, that TFA opened in the UK ($50.7M (okay it opened earlier)), Ger ($27.2M (Solo actually has Wednesday previews compared to midnight for TFA), France ($21.4M (same day)) and Australia ($20.6M) with 119.9M on their own!!!

 

For $40M it would need 15 10 8 7 from those four markets.

 

It might just do that, but it needs more to open to $300m WW. France was 850k projection x 7.2 euro/tickets x 1.17 exchange rate (better than RO) . Thats $7.2m- $7.3m for france. Germany has to open to about 850k admission for $10m. It would need 11m pounds in the uk for $15m. And no idea about Australia.

 

[Taruseth]

1 minute ago, pepsa said:

 

It might just do that, but it needs more to open to $300m WW. France was 850k projection x 7.2 euro/tickets x 1.17 exchange rate (better than RO) . Thats $7.2m- $7.3m for france. Germany has to open to about 850k admission for $10m. It would need 11m pounds in the uk for $15m. And no idea about Australia.

 

Yeah 300M is impossible that would be a higher OS OW than Rogue One.

I guess 200M is the target