SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY | 179.1 M overseas ● 392.9 M worldwide

[KP1025]

This was from Deadline just mere days before Solo's opening. OS actuals will be sub-50% of even their low-end OS projection.

 

Quote

After the hoopla over a change-up in directors, Disney/Lucasfilm’s spinoff Solo: A Star Wars Story is finally opening, and its box office potential should not be dismissed. Right now, domestic projections over the four-day Memorial Day holiday are ranging from $135 million-$170 million, with overseas projected at $150M-$170M. On the low end, that’s a $285M worldwide start, though that figure could range as high as $340M. 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-box-office-global-opening-memorial-day-weekend-1202395995/

[NCsoft]

2 minutes ago, KP1025 said:

On the low end, that’s a $285M worldwide start, though that figure could range as high as $340M. 

Sometimes I wonder, do they not even have a hunch of what is going on? 

I saw that range a few days ago and I think most people on this forum know that even the low end is unrealistic. This might be the biggest disparity between close to release estimation and real number that I've ever seen, on a worldwide scale....

[Nova]

Are the domestic numbers any better for it? I'm scared to look in that thread because I know the DP2 numbers are going to be tragic too 

[KP1025]

5 minutes ago, Nova said:

Are the domestic numbers any better for it? I'm scared to look in that thread because I know the DP2 numbers are going to be tragic too 

Last I checked (after RTH gave Saturday numbers), the projection was O/U $100 million for the 4-day weekend.

[Sam]

Never seen such complete rejection of a franchise film from basically every markets like this.

 

Will be interesting to see if Japan will persevere or it’ll go the way of UK/Germany/France/other SW-friendly markets. Rogue One made 40M+ there.

[Legion Again]

6 hours ago, miketheavenger said:

The MCU definitely is the biggest brand in the world. As if it wasn't clear before, Infinity War cemented that fact big time. Star Wars on the other hand...

On Jan 1st this year, you could have a gentlemanly debate about relative franchise power. Then TLJ fell off a cliff with domestic legs. Then BP grossed top 3 DOM. Then IW got a gross that would be good for top 3 DOM at the start of the year, plus top 3 OS. Then Solo.    

 

Now there is no gentlemanly discussion to be had, just one single obvious answer.

Edited May 27, 2018 by Thanos Legion

[Zakiyyah6]

I don't see why Solo wouldn't make at least 40% less in Japan.

[Legion Again]

5 hours ago, fabiopazzo2 said:

 

Deadline says 300M WW 1 week ago ...

They were off by barely (a factor of) .5

[DeeCee]

Still waiting to see if Solo’s OW can crack two thirds of TFA’s opening day in Australia. 

 

 

Should’ve checked Aussie thread first. 

 

Victory!

[Quigley]

“This film from the beginning of the year was identified as a movie to see; Fandango had Solo as one of the most anticipated movies of the summer along with Infinity War and Deadpool 2, so it’s surprising for the film to have not done the business as we have hoped,” said Disney distribution boss Dave Hollis this morning. “It’s disappointing when tracking is unpredictable when you get to levels like this and setting up expectations outside of where the film is landing. But, we come into a Memorial Day that’s doing a ton of business for the industry, and the last four weeks have been the biggest. It’s great for the business. Sure, Deadpool 2 jumping in front of the release and how available people turned out this weekend are factors (in Solo‘s slowdown), but with Solo we have a film that’s well received with great exits, and we have nothing in front of us for two weekends. We’ll measure the success of Solo at its finish.”

 

One small Delaware exhibitor wrote Deadline over the weekend, “We never got close to selling out our big houses or our little houses on Solo.  The poor spacing of the tentpoles just adds to it under performing.  The moviegoer is on a budget: They just spent money to go to Avengers than two weeks later Deadpool 2 now a week later a lot of moviegoers are out of money by the time Solo comes out.”

 

Disney’s worldwide distribution chief Dave Hollis, who is exiting the studio this week after 17 years, allowed that expectations were certainly higher on the movie and said Mouse execs will “spend a lot of time digging into every question in every market to get the answer” to why Solo so under-performed. “We came into the beginning of the year with this one of the most anticipated films. We gotta spend some time looking at the exits and get a better handle on all the questions.”

 

What do rivals think happened? Some cite fatigue mixed with too many spinoffs, and a bad leftover taste from The Last Jedi. One source says, “I think Disney got caught milking the Star Wars franchise a little too much. Everyone acknowledged the risk of releasing another movie five months after Jedi. They really should have pushed Solo to Christmas.” Recent SW titles have had essentially clear play through the holidays while Solo now finds himself in the summer blockbuster crunch.

 

Another exec believes that Avengers: Infinity War and Deadpool 2 sucked a lot of wind out of the markets. “It feels like general moviegoers are making a conscious choice to wait, probably until Jurassic World 2, to see their next movie.” But I’ve been cautioned to maintain some perspective “as the numbers are still decent for a spinoff, just not Disney/Lucasfilm numbers.”

 

For Hollis, it’s too soon to jump to [franchise] “fatigue” as a reason for Solo‘s opening. “This is just the fourth movie and the first three did $4B combined. I’m not sure it’s so much that people aren’t excited for additional stories.” A silver lining here is that Episode IX isn’t due until Christmas 2019 so there will be more spacing.

 

Hollis also points to the MCU, noting, “We’re in a world where we’re in the same conference rooms planning Marvel movies. We have a Thor and a Black Panther and an Infinity War coming out in November and February and May and each are massively successful. They each do well and people aren’t asking these questions.”

 

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-weekend-box-office-1202397848/

http://deadline.com/2018/05/solo-a-star-wars-story-opening-weekend-deadpool-2-avengers-infinity-war-china-global-international-box-office-1202398686/

 

All the comments from the industry (studio execs and distribs)

 

In my mind, not waiting til Christmas was the biggest mistake. They better learn from this and space out their live-action movies too, cuz there's no way 6 live-action reimaginings/sequels/reboots of Disney classics will survive within 12 months of each other. Also, it reminds a bit of May's Big Three back in 2007 (Spider-Man 3, Shrek 3, Pirates 3). The order in which they were released was the order in terms of opening weekend and final gross. The same happened with Infinity War, Deadpool 2 and Solo, except their drop from one to the next has been much larger.

[Sam]

Rth confirmed in the UK thread that the reported $10M 4-day OW is inaccurate.

 

Base on China thread, it also missed $10M OW (even if barely)

 

Would be funny if OS actuals go down. Well, more sad. But also funny.

[Godzilla]

The international numbers:

 

Edited May 28, 2018 by Godzilla

[Premium George]

This movie is doing TFA numbers, captain america one.

[pepsa]

What do we expect for solo 61m OS weekend?

Edited May 28, 2018 by pepsa

[Legion Again]

10 minutes ago, pepsa said:

What do we expect for solo 61m OS weekend?

Estimates were significantly too high in UK, and I believe also a bit too high in China. If that pattern holds, I think actuals may come in just so slightly below 60.

[oMeriMombatti]

The Hollywood film Solo - A Star Wars Story was a disaster with collections in the 1.30-1.40 crore nett range over the weekend. The film actually had a drop of 5-10% on Sunday due to the cricket.

 

https://www.boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=3967

 

1.40cr nett = 1.81cr gross = $0.27M. Movie actually dropped on Sunday, even though there was a cricket match but movies don't drop on Sunday in India.That spells doom for it in India as far as WOM is concerned. 0.5M is going to be it's final gross. TLJ did 2.5M in India and this will drop 80% from it. Solo has done the impossible here Hopefully Boba Fett movie collections in India won't be negative

[Premium George]

15 minutes ago, oMeriMombatti said:

The Hollywood film Solo - A Star Wars Story was a disaster with collections in the 1.30-1.40 crore nett range over the weekend. The film actually had a drop of 5-10% on Sunday due to the cricket.

 

https://www.boxofficeindia.com/report-details.php?articleid=3967

 

1.40cr nett = 1.81cr gross = $0.27M. Movie actually dropped on Sunday, even though there was a cricket match but movies don't drop on Sunday in India.That spells doom for it in India as far as WOM is concerned. 0.5M is going to be it's final gross. TLJ did 2.5M in India and this will drop 80% from it. Solo has done the impossible here Hopefully Boba Fett movie collections in India won't be negative

What were other movies performance on sunday. That ipl final was huge, would have impacted everything.

[ZeeSoh]

20 minutes ago, Premium George said:

What were other movies performance on sunday. That ipl final was huge, would have impacted everything.

The 2 bollywood movies playing had an increase of 12-13% on Sunday which is slightly on the lower side but at least they increased rather than decrease like Solo

[XO21]

OW below Blade Runner in many markets like UK and Italy. OW OS less than $10m from BR debut. Woof.

[Heretic]

This is definitely one of the biggest bombs ever. Just horrendous performance everywhere.