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kayumanggi

SOLO: A STAR WARS STORY | 179.1 M overseas ● 392.9 M worldwide

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1 hour ago, kayumanggi said:

Hmm. I'm thinking maybe 600 M. This won't be in the top 3 films overseas next summer.

Why should this increase from Rogue One.

We have very little information apparently but I wouldnt be shocked with something under 500m.

Release date is far worse than RO, wirh huuuuge competition. RO was coming after TFA while this one will be after TLJ which will be a considerably smaller event.

We dont know how people will react to so many SW films as well.

Many questions right know, but If I had to guess right know, I would go with 450m or so..

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Is Ford also there. If he is then its potential is higher. At least Chewbecca should play a big role and so its more connected to main trilogy. Hard to predict this far out but I would say Rogue One's numbers are a good target to start with. Definitely wont be in Top 4 OS.

 

1) Jurassic World/Lion King

3) Avengers

4) Incredibles

 

I think even deadpool sequel with China release can beat this. But its highly unlikely that deadpool gets china release. Fantastic Beasts sequel also has good chance to beat this.

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10 minutes ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is Ford also there. If he is then its potential is higher. At least Chewbecca should play a big role and so its more connected to main trilogy. Hard to predict this far out but I would say Rogue One's numbers are a good target to start with. Definitely wont be in Top 4 OS.

 

1) Jurassic World/Lion King

3) Avengers

4) Incredibles

 

I think even deadpool sequel with China release can beat this. But its highly unlikely that deadpool gets china release. Fantastic Beasts sequel also has good chance to beat this.

 

Lion King is 2019. Other than that I think you're on the money.

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6 hours ago, FantasticBeasts said:

Why should this increase from Rogue One.

We have very little information apparently but I wouldnt be shocked with something under 500m.

Release date is far worse than RO, wirh huuuuge competition. RO was coming after TFA while this one will be after TLJ which will be a considerably smaller event.

We dont know how people will react to so many SW films as well.

Many questions right know, but If I had to guess right know, I would go with 450m or so..

 

Ha ha, my bad. I actually thought 600 M was a lower number than what RO made. Didn't check.

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This might drop even lower than Rogue One in Asia, especially without the draw of Donnie Yen. I don't think a young Han Solo is a particularly strong sell for a market that isn't big on the character or the Star Wars universe in the first place (outside of Japan). 

Edited by KP1025
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7 hours ago, keysersoze123 said:

Is Ford also there. If he is then its potential is higher. At least Chewbecca should play a big role and so its more connected to main trilogy. Hard to predict this far out but I would say Rogue One's numbers are a good target to start with. Definitely wont be in Top 4 OS.

 

1) Jurassic World/Lion King

3) Avengers

4) Incredibles

 

I think even deadpool sequel with China release can beat this. But its highly unlikely that deadpool gets china release. Fantastic Beasts sequel also has good chance to beat this.

It wont be Top 4, maybe not even Top 5.

Even If Lion King is a 2019 release, those  titles will beat it for sure:

Avenger, Incredibles 2, Jurassic World.

There are also high possibilities that it will come under Fantastic Beast 2 considering that RO came under FB1 and I think Deafpool will have strong chances at bearing this too. Mulan live action  maybe with China as well...

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I feel this one might do fine in UK, Australia, Japan and off-course USA. Rest depends on how they market it and present it to audiences!

Not sure if Han Solo is a popular character haven't heard much about him! Not a SW fan but ive heard a lot about Yoda and Darth Vader! 

But 300-400 is pretty much possible! 

Edited by John Rambo
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1 hour ago, Barnack said:

 

Possible reason is Lord&Miller and easier to sell more has a fully stand-alone movie for the newer market

I really doubt this. Pretty much most overseas territories are not educated when it comes to SW.

Rogue One had the advantage of coming after TFA, an unprecedented phenomenon that TLJ is not going to match.

I think that by the Han Solo movie, the SW brand will be somehow overexposed . 4 movies in 3 years are a lot for people to cope with.

 

My prediction right now is right about $400-450m.

The SW brand is weak in Asia and even in Europe it is the absolute peak in only a few markets.

TFA was a phenomenom that cannot be matched again. 

I expect TLJ to do better DOM than OS comfortably as well.

Edited by FantasticBeasts
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2 minutes ago, FantasticBeasts said:

I really doubt this. Pretty much most overseas territories are not educated when it comes to SW.

 

 

 

This is very true. Especially in Asia, the original trilogy was not well-known at all. The prequels are far more popular, and Han Solo did not have a presence in any of them. To many newcomers to the franchise, all they know of Han Solo is the old man who died in TFA. A whole movie about him will not be very interesting to a lot of these viewers, who weren't enthused by TFA in the first place.

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1 minute ago, FantasticBeasts said:

overseas territories are not educated when it comes to SW.

 

I'm not sure what you doubt exactly in my message, but that was my point, the Han Solo movie will be much more independent than the usual movie (or at least possible to sell has stand alone), Solo does not believe in Jedi older so he was not exposed to the mythology at all has a young person, he was not involved in the rebellion or anything much that we known.

 

That give the movie no minimum in new market, but no limit like a franchise movie tend to have, with a lot of resistance from people that have not seen any star wars movie and feel that you must have.

 

Has for the SW being weakened by so many release, that is really probable, if they stay good it could be not so bad (Lords of the rings got 3 movie in 3 year's and they all grew).

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1 minute ago, Barnack said:

 

I'm not sure what you doubt exactly in my message, but that was my point, the Han Solo movie will be much more independent than the usual movie (or at least possible to sell has stand alone), Solo does not believe in Jedi older so he was not exposed to the mythology at all has a young person, he was not involved in the rebellion or anything much that we known.

 

That give the movie no minimum in new market, but no limit like a franchise movie tend to have, with a lot of resistance from people that have not seen any star wars movie and feel that you must have.

 

Has for the SW being weakened by so many release, that is really probable, if they stay good it could be not so bad (Lords of the rings got 3 movie in 3 year's and they all grew).

Well I have only seen the prequel trilogy and even that I have forgotten most of the things because well...it was...

;)

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1 hour ago, Piku-Banerjee said:

I'm thinking:

 

$50 million in China

$30 million in Japan

$325 million in the rest of the world with heavy European contribution

 

OS total: $405 million

I think it will go a little higher, closer to 500m, especially if the movie is good. But overall yeah, SW will be the only big franchise where most of the money comes from the US. It really is a testament of how hugely popular this is DOM. I'm thinking TLJ will also make less many OS than DOM.

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