What a WONDERful Weekend | WW down only 16% on Sunday. 103M weekend. pg 226

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, grim22 said:

 

We know

 

http://forums.boxofficetheory.com/topic/23365-now-back-to-the-good-part-pirates-of-the-caribbean-dead-men-tell-no-tales-over-on-stranger-tides-dom-241m-club/

Better than Michael Mann's Untitled Cyberthriller!

[DAR]

2 minutes ago, WrathOfHan said:

But I do.

[a2k]

Rth said it was 38 when he looked early on...hoping things have changed due to late evening shows and WC.

hoping for 39. 

 

then a 20% jump from true friday and a 20% drop on sunday gives us a big fat fudge

 

11 + 28 + 33.6 (+20%) + 26.9 (-20%) = 99.5

 

if 38 (11 + 27) holds than it gives a 97 OW with above holds on sat and sun.

 

either way, feel confident about 95+.

 

my post from earlier in the day

 

12 hours ago, a2knet said:

I unabashedly come out of the closet as the first spoiled(?) BOTizen who will whine and shout 'disappointing' if this does 1 cent less than 95 ow. 

Well not really, but I don't want it to end up as the lowest grossing DCEU dom.

 

For that matter, even MOS does not deserve to be the lowest grossing DCEU but that's a done thing.

Though WONDR should really really not get that tag.

 

I expect WONDR to do >2.75x and 105+ will help it challenge MOS. High-nineties (like F8) will be fine too but then will leave it needing closer to 3x (which am not ruling out).

 

[DAR]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

Some comps: From 38, if it follows the weekend IM of:

Dr. Strange, it does 99.19.

Guardians 1, 94.7.

Guardians 2, 99.3.

Logan, 101.8.

Civil War, 90.16.

Suicide Squad, 78.28.

Deadpool, 106.3

Cap 1, 96.18.

So pick which one you think it will perform like, I guess.

Is that supposed to be Winter Soldier instead of Cap 1?  If so that's my guess

[Jayhawk the Hutt]

100m all comes down to the Saturday bump.

[Nova]

2 minutes ago, Cmasterclay said:

Some comps: From 38, if it follows the weekend IM of:

Dr. Strange, it does 99.19.

Guardians 1, 94.7.

Guardians 2, 99.3.

Logan, 101.8.

Civil War, 90.16.

Suicide Squad, 78.28.

Deadpool, 106.3

Cap 1, 96.18.

So pick which one you think it will perform like, I guess.

I'm gonna say it performs like GOTG2 and therefore comes in a hair under $100M but enough for WB to say estimates have WW over $100M 

[Barnack]

2 hours ago, Brainiac5 said:

I meant as far a Superhero films.

Think about it if the TDKR came out in 2008 what would its domestic total adjust to?

Between TDKR and TDK there's a significant decrease in Domestic sales .

 

There was 2 superheroes movie, Hellboy and Hancock, playing in wide release when Dark Knight came out, 2008 was a really big year for Sh movies with 9 releases (6 big one), all playing in 2500 theater or more, not that dissimilar to 2016 8 releases (7 big one):

 

45	93	The Spirit	LGF	$19,806,188	2,509	$6,463,278	2,509	12/25/08
46	106	Punisher: War Zone	LGF	$8,050,977	2,508	$4,271,451	2,508	12/5/08
47	2	The Dark Knight	WB	$534,858,444	4,366	$158,411,483	4,366	7/18/08
48	66	Hellboy II: The Golden Army	Uni.	$75,986,503	3,212	$34,539,115	3,204	7/11/08
49	25	Hancock	Sony	$227,946,274	3,965	$62,603,879	3,965	7/2/08
50	48	Wanted	Uni.	$134,508,551	3,185	$50,927,085	3,175	6/27/08
51	47	The Incredible Hulk	Uni.	$134,806,913	3,508	$55,414,050	3,505	6/13/08
52	15	Iron Man	Par.	$318,412,101	4,154	$98,618,668	4,105	5/2/08
53	90	Superhero Movie	MGM/W	$25,881,068	2,965	$9,510,297	2,960	3/28/08

[YM!]

6 minutes ago, Brainiac5 said:

For those of you who doesn't know!!!!!

Suicide Squad home video sales First update has the film at 80mil in home video sales on its way to 130mil+.

BVS will end its run right at 100mil,mos 106mil.

The notion that The previous films hurt WW is ridiculous.

Another example of Expectations too high.

 

A female Superhero film opening to 75-96mil&600+mil ww is already an accomplishment.

Captain Marvel will surely have the same potential.

Judging from the numbers BVS should end at about $80M-$85M. Historically DC movies do well on home video. But remember Transformers 4 did over $63M in video sales. T3 did $113M. T1 and 2 did over $200M in video sales. We can't deny that there was some bad WOM for the DCEU but Wonder Woman will change that.

[Cmasterclay]

If I'm a betting man, I say this plays fairly well over the weekend and ends up around the Cap 1 comparison, at about 96 or 97 mill. But that all depends on tonight going up and down. If it got up to 40, then 100 goes from a chance to a strong probability.

[AdamKendall]

2 minutes ago, Arlborn said:

She's rising once again.

 

that whole scene.

[Kalo]

Please WW get to $100m.  I have so much I'm betting on it.

 

[somebody85]

19 minutes ago, DAR said:

Eh never really took to the whole zombie thing

 

huh ah okay that makes sense then.

[Cmasterclay]

1 minute ago, DAR said:

Is that supposed to be Winter Soldier instead of Cap 1?  If so that's my guess

I picked Cap 1 because they're both period origin stories of iconic characters releasing in summer instead of spring. Winter Solider IM gives it 97.8.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

Is more reliable RTH or Gitesh, and if RTH is early numbers and Gitesh is the new???

I'm not a troll, I'm just ask

Both are very reliable. RTH tends to be more accurate but Gitesh still gives early numbers.

[expensiveho]

$100m is great for WW. Rooting for great legs, 2.75-2.85.

[somebody85]

1 minute ago, Cmasterclay said:

If I'm a betting man, I say this plays fairly well over the weekend and ends up around the Cap 1 comparison, at about 96 or 97 mill. But that all depends on tonight going up and down. If it got up to 40, then 100 goes from a chance to a strong probability.

This is also what I predict. Think this is going to be either just under or over it and have a strong Saturday. The 33 number earlier didn't even change that. Theater audiences look a lot different then last night.

[a2k]

3 minutes ago, Wonder89 said:

Is more reliable RTH or Gitesh, and if RTH is early numbers and Gitesh is the new???

I'm not a troll, I'm just ask

 

Rth has access to the real data.

When Deadline, Variety, THR, Gitesh post numbers, it's Rth and co. providing them the data.

So Rth numbers are most accurate (only rarely they tend to be a bit off is when he gives very early numbers, in which case I think it's tough to predict the trend so things can move a bit.)

[Nova]

Folks who don't think the DCEU has bad WOM need to read all the reviews that pretty much say the films up until this point have sucked. And that's including critic and user reviews. 

[aabattery]

 

behold my masterpiece.

 

Anyway, numbers are looking nicer. This is straight out of my ass but I think it'll tend to fall on the high end of the projected numbers we get this weekend.

 

[The Futurist]

How many superthero movies had a multiplier over 2,5 ?

 

TDK

Avengers

Deadpool

 and ?

 

 

 

 

Edited June 3, 2017 by The Futurist