Wonder Woman 1984 | Dec 16 2020 OS | Dec 25 2020 US and on HBO MAX

[Saul Goodman]

Would be a good to way get more subscribers for HBO Max after a tepid launch.

[Macleod]

Sounds like AT&T is pushing for HBOMax simultaneous and December.  

 

I bet that Warner Bros. convinces them for one more shot to wait for June, 2021.  If things aren't even significantly hopeful by then, we'll see this model proceed and WW84 will be on HBOMax before the end of the summer.  

 

Gotta give props to Warners for attempting to keep tied to the theatrical experience.  But it's also clear that they have an ego about wanting to be the first big blockbuster to bring people back and to be in the history books for helping to "save" the theatrical business in the US.  But TENET bellyflopped in the US -- I think this should have been released, instead.  It might have garnered a bit more goodwill and possibly reached $100mil domestic.  

 

...And it probably simply should have been released back in November, 2019, like originally scheduled!

 

We'll know in a few hours...another late Friday release date change, coming, I'm thinking.  

Edited November 13, 2020 by Macleod

[Spidey Freak]

Wonder Woman is currently WB's biggest domestic franchise. HBO Max is only available domestic, so a simultaneous/1 month-window release will affect WW84's most lucrative BO market atm and OS would get affected by piracy. Such a decision would be as whack as the original HBO Max model of launching without any 'tentpole OG programming' (Snyder Cut being a year away from release) and launching when DC Universe, HBO Now and other sister platforms still existed to dilute subscription numbers. 

 

Instead of panicking, AT&T need to focus on the Snyder Cut to buoy HBO Max instead of sacrificing one of their biggest theatrical franchises for the job. 

[lorddemaxus]

Honestly, I'm more open to this than I was a couple weeks ago. I'm pretty ok with this as long as long as WB pays exhibitors at the same time (as said in the Bloomberg article). This isn't going to affect OS theaters much since most of them are closed and most Asian markets seem to be doing fine with local content. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by lorddemaxus

[Spidey Freak]

55 minutes ago, Macleod said:

Gotta give props to Warners for attempting to keep tied to the theatrical experience. 

 

I mean, it's not an entirely altruistic decision when it comes to WW84. Wonder Woman was the only WB release of the decade to top the summer DOM box office other than DH2 and is their third biggest movie DOM after TDK and TDKR. Currently, WW is their biggest theatrical franchise domestically, the only market HBO Max is currently available in. It would be a Pyrrhic victory to "save HBO Max" (still an unsure thing in the long run even if WW84 increases subscription numbers temporarily) at the cost of sacrificing their biggest theatrical franchise in the market.

Edited November 13, 2020 by Spidey Freak

[AndyK]

Move it to June, vaccines will be out and there will be the Summer virus lull anyway.

 

 

[SpiderByte]

HBO Max can't do above 1080p but they want replace a major wide theatrical release? While only being available in one country??

Edited November 13, 2020 by SpiderByte

[jimisawesome]

10 hours ago, filmlover said:

 

Quote

 

Those who conduct business with Warners tell me that AT&T Brass just don’t get the theatrical business, and are pressuring WarnerMedia executives to turn up the gas on the OTT service. If there’s any fear of ruining exhibition by moving Wonder Woman 1984, movie theaters are already crippled with or without the sequel on the marquee at Christmas.

 

This is a movie that has the potential to gross $1 billion worldwide, and the ancillary riches and HBO Max subscribers will come with that down the road. All the MBAs in the room surely need to wake up to that.

 

 

 

What am I missing?  Do these reporters and Studio Execs follow at all what is going on with NATO, AMC, Regal and any number of smaller chains?  AMC and Regal have not made it a secret they are going to run out of money in the next 8-12 weeks.  Or is there some secret money that the theaters are about to get that no one else knows about including the theaters?  I mentioned earlier this is about the worst possible election outcome for theaters to get a carve out in the next bailout. 

 

WW84 does not have the potential to gross 1 billion in 2021 not anymore.

 

The industry keeps acting like this is a pause and come April everything goes back to normal.  They are not grasping reality yet because they are still producing 200+ million dollar movies instead of putting a stop on everything.  They would put together a fund or buy equity into the theater chains instead of hopes and prayers that the Senate will pass anything. 

 

[SpiderByte]

With a competent person in charge of handling virus response, and already in the middle of a massive surge which could worsen between now and Christmas, WBs best bet is the summer. It won't make what it would pre covid but it has a much better shot in June than what would be an inevitably embarrassing Christmas run

[jimisawesome]

14 hours ago, Maggie said:

This is too depressing. Do you think nothing next year makes even 50M domestic?

 

I don't think its going to be likely but I think there is at very real chance that the biggest movie does less than 50 million say about a 1 in 6 chance.

 

Even in the absolute best possible case, I don't see how AMC and Regal don't close 10% or more of their theaters. What I think is a likely case is we lose 30% of theater locations before summer due to cost cutting and bankruptcies of some of the smaller chains.  Its not a long shot at all that AMC and Regal both file along with a bunch of smaller chains.  If its just AMC or Regal maybe there is a white knight that will come in, but with both you are looking at only the best locations being kept as theaters. 

 

Throw in the public changing their entertainment habits and changes of behavior due to COVID and bam its the end.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

4 minutes ago, jimisawesome said:

 

I don't think its going to be likely but I think there is at very real chance that the biggest movie does less than 50 million say about a 1 in 6 chance.

 

Even in the absolute best possible case, I don't see how AMC and Regal don't close 10% or more of their theaters. What I think is a likely case is we lose 30% of theater locations before summer due to cost cutting and bankruptcies of some of the smaller chains.  Its not a long shot at all that AMC and Regal both file along with a bunch of smaller chains.  If its just AMC or Regal maybe there is a white knight that will come in, but with both you are looking at only the best locations being kept as theaters. 

 

Throw in the public changing their entertainment habits and changes of behavior due to COVID and bam its the end.

 

 

Yeah, it didn't take long for "physical" to fall completely out of favor in music, even with Napster's shutdown.  Habit changed meant habit never returned.

 

I think seniors (or 55+) will have a permanent habit change after all of this...I think kids/families may also have a permanent habit change.  That's gonna wipe out a large portion of the industry which would then only have 13-55s to rely on (and even then, some of those folks will change habits, but not at the huge percentages I expect the other 2 groups to have changed)...

 

It's gonna be a dark decade for the theater business...and bailouts aren't coming, especially under Biden (with the way Congress fell, it's actually more likely Trump would have given in, but he won't be there).  With Rs keeping the Senate and making huge gains in the House, they have no political will or need to do so...if a D is in the White House, he'll get all the blame, even if it's not his fault.  And Rs will be focused on 2022, where they are almost surely to continue to gain House and Senate seats b/c bad economic times are always blamed on the top...just like good times are rewarded at the top... 

[WittyUsername]

I’ve said it before, but man, they should’ve stuck with that December 2019 date. The Rise of Skywalker probably wouldn’t have posed a big threat. Of course, I’m saying that with the benefit of hindsight. 

Edited November 13, 2020 by WittyUsername

[AndyK]

1 hour ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yeah, it didn't take long for "physical" to fall completely out of favor in music, even with Napster's shutdown.  Habit changed meant habit never returned.

 

I think seniors (or 55+) will have a permanent habit change after all of this...I think kids/families may also have a permanent habit change.  That's gonna wipe out a large portion of the industry which would then only have 13-55s to rely on (and even then, some of those folks will change habits, but not at the huge percentages I expect the other 2 groups to have changed)...

 

It's gonna be a dark decade for the theater business...and bailouts aren't coming, especially under Biden (with the way Congress fell, it's actually more likely Trump would have given in, but he won't be there).  With Rs keeping the Senate and making huge gains in the House, they have no political will or need to do so...if a D is in the White House, he'll get all the blame, even if it's not his fault.  And Rs will be focused on 2022, where they are almost surely to continue to gain House and Senate seats b/c bad economic times are always blamed on the top...just like good times are rewarded at the top... 

I don't agree.

 

People and families love something to do and cinema+dinner is a one of the fundamental things in life.

 

It's coming straight back as soon as people feel it's safe to do so.

[ThomasNicole]

I doubt it’s coming next month and then to HBO Max, but at this point i wouldn’t care.

 

The timing for this is terrible right now, they’re making promo for a year and the movie don’t come out. If it’s delayed again to june i doubt it will be that big, especially because the theaters are not coming back to high numbers so soon, doesn’t matter if it’s a billion dollar contender before, it’s not anymore.

 

But still sounds better for them to delay than release on December with PVOD / Streams right after. 

[TwoMisfits]

46 minutes ago, AndyK said:

I don't agree.

 

People and families love something to do and cinema+dinner is a one of the fundamental things in life.

 

It's coming straight back as soon as people feel it's safe to do so.

But you forget...

 

At least in the US, thanks to the shut-ins/downs, folks spent time and money on items which make it easier to lose the movie-going habit.

 

Just like in Napster's time, folks moved aggressively into MP3 players and IPODS, so they didn't have need for physical even when their free source of MP3s went away, now folks have spent HEAVILY in new entertainment systems - tvs, sound systems, gaming systems, furniture even...and they've spent heavily in new streaming services and learned how to group view online...

 

None of that goes away even when Covid goes away...just like the Ipods and MP3 players, all of that tech set-up and knowledge is done and paid for...and thus, the habit naturally goes away b/c it's replaced...

[WittyUsername]

Movie theaters were already struggling even before the pandemic. That’s why directors like Martin Scorsese and David Fincher have started doing movies for Netflix. Even if this whole thing blows over by April of next year, I think the days of movie theaters being seen as a regular pastime that everyone engages in are numbered. 

[jimisawesome]

2 hours ago, TwoMisfits said:

Yeah, it didn't take long for "physical" to fall completely out of favor in music, even with Napster's shutdown.  Habit changed meant habit never returned.

 

I think seniors (or 55+) will have a permanent habit change after all of this...I think kids/families may also have a permanent habit change.  That's gonna wipe out a large portion of the industry which would then only have 13-55s to rely on (and even then, some of those folks will change habits, but not at the huge percentages I expect the other 2 groups to have changed)...

 

It's gonna be a dark decade for the theater business...and bailouts aren't coming, especially under Biden (with the way Congress fell, it's actually more likely Trump would have given in, but he won't be there).  With Rs keeping the Senate and making huge gains in the House, they have no political will or need to do so...if a D is in the White House, he'll get all the blame, even if it's not his fault.  And Rs will be focused on 2022, where they are almost surely to continue to gain House and Senate seats b/c bad economic times are always blamed on the top...just like good times are rewarded at the top... 

 

Great post.  And to get more into the weeds on the election and why it was bad for the Arts and Cinema.  Joe Biden has always been a deficit hawk and the leaked names for economic positions with 1 exception (Janet Yellon) follow along with being deficit hawks.  Nancy Pelosi is a Peterson disciple, for those that don't know what this means she is one of the biggest deficit hawks in DC.  And Mitch McConnell is better at politics than anyone else in DC which means he is going to lead Senate Republicans into another 2 years of being the party of no.  Even if a miracle occurs and the Democrats win both GA runoffs that just places them at 48-50-2 and no the 2 are not Bernie and Angus King, its Sinema and Manchin who are already singling they will be more than willing to work with Republicans every chance they can.   Throw in the infighting that is occurring where the so called moderates are trying to purge the left wing out of power if not the party. 

 

This is the environment I see and to show an example of this roll back, just look at what Chuck Schumer proposed a few days ago with Student Debt relief at 40,000 and yesterday Biden has the number down to 10,000 already.  This one is very telling because this is an extremely popular policy proposal not just with Democrats but across the board.  Saving theaters does not have anywhere close to this level of support. 

 

It would take a whole lot of people doing things that are out of character for them to see theaters getting saved.

 

The industry is never going back to 2019.  It's now how much of it can be saved.   I fully expect at least 4 if not 5 of the 12 AMC in my market to shut down even if things trend towards best case.

 

 

 

[Macleod]

43 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

Movie theaters were already struggling even before the pandemic. That’s why directors like Martin Scorsese and David Fincher have started doing movies for Netflix. Even if this whole thing blows over by April of next year, I think the days of movie theaters being seen as a regular pastime that everyone engages in are numbered. 

These creative choices by filmmakers don't have to do with "theaters struggling," they are mainly to do with the Hollywood industry's privileging of franchise-based entertainment, and not as many "smaller" or even "mid-budget" films, lately.  Basically, it's been hard to "sell" major studios on a Scorsese or even Fincher film.  

 

I don't agree on the permanent disappearance of mass movie theaters.  The Hollywood system (and possibly worldwide) will eventually step-in and help them survive.  But yes, that will of course also fundamentally change the dynamics of the mutual systems...and create new questions.   

Edited November 13, 2020 by Macleod

[SpiderByte]

I mean it's going on HBO Max either way, so either they make 25 million for Christmas and then put it on HBO Max or make (assuming vaccines start in April) 150 mil in June and then also out it on HBO Max

[DeeCee]

Well, we still had the trailer before Freaky today. I didn’t pay attention to any release dates.