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Wonder Woman 1984 | Dec 16 2020 OS | Dec 25 2020 US and on HBO MAX

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3 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

I doubt the performance of WW84 affects a potential third movie. Outside the US it’ll probably do relatively decent numbers, especially in Asia (unless piracy really tanks it after the first week). Plus, it will be undeniably massive for HBO Max which AT&T will likely be very happy about, even if it struggles at the domestic BO.

 

WB are well aware that the performance of this film comes with a huge asterisk, the first film was massive and the character is still very popular after rejuvenating the DC brand, so I doubt they write off the franchise based on the COVID impacted performance of WW84.

The problem is that while the first film was undeniably a success, its box office was very domestic heavy. 

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The only way a Wonder Woman 3 doesn’t happen is if Patty doesn’t want it to happen. 

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At the moment in Australia theatres are open nationwide. With the limited available content and capacity restrictions the box office is around 25-30% of this time last. Due to the drop off in demand opening hours have been reduced and there doesn’t seem to be as many screens in use in the big complexes. 
 

By Boxing Day it’s quite probable there will no longer be any restrictions in the theatres. WW1984 will have a severely limited release Domestic and Europe. However, it’s performance in Australia could be a good indication of how it would have gone elsewhere. 

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5 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

The problem is that while the first film was undeniably a success, its box office was very domestic heavy. 

True, but superhero sequels generally see an uptick in foreign box office. I think if this had received a normal box office run, the final split would have been more like a Marvel sequel with international taking the lead. 

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52 minutes ago, WittyUsername said:

The problem is that while the first film was undeniably a success, its box office was very domestic heavy. 

War plots never were big crowd pleasing and coming after BvS and SS it was pretty understandable. The acclaim it received had huge part on its success. 

 

Unfortunately we are in this situation, but I was very excited see the growth on this next movie on the OS market.

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12/25/2020 Wonder Woman 1984 $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $60,000,000
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3 hours ago, DeeCee said:

 

By Boxing Day it’s quite probable there will no longer be any restrictions in the theatres. WW1984 will have a severely limited release Domestic and Europe. However, it’s performance in Australia could be a good indication of how it would have gone elsewhere. 

I believe then piracy is no threat in Australia. or we will have to use some *.

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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:
12/25/2020 Wonder Woman 1984 $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $60,000,000

TENET opened $10mn Approx ($50-60mn in normalcy perhaps). WW84 should have done $150mn easily on that date in normalcy. So WW84 was perhaps looking at something like $25mn but now I believe $10mn would be about right due to HBO.

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4 hours ago, WittyUsername said:

The problem is that while the first film was undeniably a success, its box office was very domestic heavy. 

For an origin film, it did well overseas. In India, Iirc it did some $4mn, would have done $12mn range without HBO piracy. I would have said COVID, but when restrauant are back to their normal I wonder why theater won't.

Edited by charlie Jatinder
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2 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:
12/25/2020 Wonder Woman 1984 $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $60,000,000

I’ll take 1-4M OW, leg out to teens total.

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These numbers being thrown around are so depressing lol, I’m so disappointed. I really thought this had a shot a improving on the first movie and maybe even hitting a billion. I know this is just the way it is but I still wish they would of delayed it, I don’t think people would of been less interested if it released in June or whatever. 

Edited by cax16
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26 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

I’ll take 1-4M OW, leg out to teens total.

Elaboration: in the week before this releases, ~20-25k people will die of covid in the US. Theaters will, for the most part, not be open. And even where they are, people streaming it further cuts into business.

Edited by WandaLegion
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9 minutes ago, cax16 said:

I really thought this had a shot a improving on the first movie and maybe even hitting a billion.

FWIW trequel can claim a jump of perhaps 300%.

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It's hard to fault them for this decision. Studios and companies are trying to do what makes sense for them given the world we live in now. Covid has changed how we can and want to live our lives, and in turn the media landscape. My sense is that people are still clinging to the notion that there will be a return to normal in the near future. Wonder Woman will be missing out on its box office potential, certainly, but I don't find it particularly persuasive to be looking at the film in isolation at this point.

 

We're 8 months into this pandemic, and theatrical business is still severely depressed. It will be like this for many months still to come, with the worst of the pandemic still to come, and I expect all of 2021 will be impaired to some extent. It's not great for us cinema lovers and box office nerds, but this unfortunately is the way it is.

 

For the sake of my own health and well-being, I have to acknowledge and adapt to our new reality, and find joy where I can find it. Though it won't be in the way I wanted to watch them, I am glad I have Soul and Wonder Woman to look forward to during the holidays.

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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3 hours ago, charlie Jatinder said:

I believe then piracy is no threat in Australia. or we will have to use some *.

I would strongly disagree that piracy isn’t a factor in Australia, I know this is a tv example (albeit the biggest tv show in recent history) but still:

 

”TorrentFreak has estimated that Australia represented 12.5% of all torrent downloads for the episode, followed by India with 9.7%, the US with 8.5%, and the UK with 6.9%. 

 

Despite the mammoth amount of downloads, it still wasn’t enough to eclipse Australia’s world record, which was 1.5 million in its first 12 hours, achieved on last season’s finale. 

 

The one million downloads comes despite legal means of watching the show through Foxtel. However, the pay TV operator locked all digital rights down too, meaning iTunes, Quickflix and other digital providers can’t make the show available until the series is completely finished.

 

Foxtel is hoping to curb piracy of “GoT” by offering a discounted Foxtel Play subscription; however, if episode one is of any indication, it’s not exactly working. 
 

Foxtel will be fighting the “Game of Thrones” battle on multiple fronts, with not only pirates a concern, but also HBO’s Now streaming service. While Now isn’t officially available in Australia, it’s not hard to use a DNS or VPN service to get around it. 

 

Although, the cost of $US14.99 plus $2-3 per month for a workaround leaves you with roughly only a $5 discount compared to Foxtel Play.”

 

source: https://www.gizmodo.com.au/2016/04/australia-is-yet-again-the-worlds-biggest-game-of-thrones-pirate/

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@Jamiem I mean generally like piracy in India means your film is done. Almot 30-50% of business is written off, may be more. Is it same in Australia. There is  no home media market in India, but I believe the country where home media market exist, piracy will be lower threat to box office.

 

Also I have a hard time believing Australia will be even close to USA, India and China in terms of absolute traffic. 

 

There are some absolute stats for S07, Australia is way behind.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/707063/game-of-thrones-piracy-countries/
 

But here's another in which India is way ahead of China and US.

https://www.digit.in/news/entertainment/game-of-thrones-season-8-premiere-pirated-55-million-times-in-24-hours-18-of-illegal-views-originate-47570.html

 

And the extent will be even bigger because a lot of spread of piracy is from one source who download and then share to multiple persons offline, though that must have reduced since 2016 as now everyone has like 2 GB 4G data each day.

Edited by charlie Jatinder

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6 hours ago, Gavin Feng said:
12/25/2020 Wonder Woman 1984 $5,000,000 – $15,000,000 NEW $30,000,000 – $60,000,000

Sounds about right. Might even go sub-$25M total quite easily if most of the country has closed back up by the time Christmas Day gets here.

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1 hour ago, charlie Jatinder said:

@Jamiem I mean generally like piracy in India means your film is done. Almot 30-50% of business is written off, may be more. Is it same in Australia. There is  no home media market in India, but I believe the country where home media market exist, piracy will be lower threat to box office.

 

Also I have a hard time believing Australia will be even close to USA, India and China in terms of absolute traffic. 

 

There are some absolute stats for S07, Australia is way behind.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/707063/game-of-thrones-piracy-countries/
 

But here's another in which India is way ahead of China and US.

https://www.digit.in/news/entertainment/game-of-thrones-season-8-premiere-pirated-55-million-times-in-24-hours-18-of-illegal-views-originate-47570.html

 

And the extent will be even bigger because a lot of spread of piracy is from one source who download and then share to multiple persons offline, though that must have reduced since 2016 as now everyone has like 2 GB 4G data each day.

Again can’t say exactly for film compared to TV but it’ll be an impact for sure don’t think it would be as high as 50% though. People that want to see it in Cinema will mostly go still but will likely hurt attendance of more causal audience. Also dumb for it to come out pretty much day and date with US here for that very reason. 
 

I don’t think recent piracy stats are as applicable as most in broadband heavy markets stream from websites rather than download torrents from what I understand nowadays so S7 was likely under those conditions hence the change to nations like India which likely have more spotty Internet thus download rather than stream. 
 

If you go by population US and India had 10x or more internet users but piracy was still bigger from Australia so even if there is some inaccuracies there still by percentage of population it was huge, same here in New Zealand hardly anyone I knew watched GoT legally. 
 

edit: last big movie I could remember being torrented was The Interview (very different circumstances obviously) . Similar trend of Australia overindexing on that one 

https://torrentfreak.com/heres-interview-pirates-coming-141230/

Edited by Jamiem

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