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Wonder Woman 1984 | Dec 16 2020 OS | Dec 25 2020 US and on HBO MAX

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18 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Netflix is ?? (but gained 5M in 2020),

They were at 73.08M total at the end of Q3. If I'm calculating this graph right: https://www.statista.com/statistics/250937/quarterly-number-of-netflix-streaming-subscribers-in-the-us/ They had added up to 4M in 2020 till their Q3, so assuming Q4 brought in one more million, they are a little over 74M now.

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This could end up looking better or worse once we see more hybrid SVOD runs. It’s possible that they’ll make it up in MAX subs, but the amount needed to break even will be just a bit higher. 

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3 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

This could end up looking better or worse once we see more hybrid SVOD runs. It’s possible that they’ll make it up in MAX subs, but the amount needed to break even will be just a bit higher. 

The next big test will probably be Tom & Jerry. Doubt The Little Things and Judas & the Black Messiah were ever gonna be big enough deals to make a noticeable difference for them either way.

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58 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Right now, it seems at a certain late point in Dec, HBO Max was at 17M US-only subscribers...

 

For comparison, the article states that for US-only subscribers, Amazon Prime has 50M (gained 7M in 2020), Netflix is ?? (but gained 5M in 2020), Disney Plus is 37M (gained 13M for 2020), Hulu is about 35M (gained 8M in 2020), and Apple TV is 8M (gaining only 4M in 2020)...

 

Depending on if these numbers estimated an end of year growth or just took the actuals by a certain date, they may go up slightly, especially D+ and HBO Max, since they had the 2 big releases...https://www.fastcompany.com/90590593/netflix-maintains-its-lead-over-streaming-rivals-as-americans-add-disney-hbo-max

 

PS - If anyone has the WSJ access, it would be great to see if that's exactly where this author swiped all the numbers b/c I'd trust them more:)...they reference the WSJ analysis, but I won't pay for that:)...

 

EDIT: Reposting from the streaming board...

That would be excellent if those numbers were correct. I figure that at about $15/month, WW84 would likely need to have earned them 2.5 million subscribers who keep the service for one year. It’s a lot but if they increased from 8 million to 12.5 million and then to 17 million in this quarter, then they are there and would need to keep about half of the new subscribers who presumably signed up during the WW84 spike. 

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29 minutes ago, filmlover said:

The next big test will probably be Tom & Jerry. Doubt The Little Things and Judas & the Black Messiah were ever gonna be big enough deals to make a noticeable difference for them either way.

I doubt Tom and Jerry was either tbh. It’s quite awkward for comparisons how the biggest movie they’re trying this with is also the first and the most pandemic affected.

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Wonder woman was good. I enjoyed it.

 

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48 minutes ago, TheDarkKnightOfSteel said:

Saw this a second time and yep...seems like I will be defending  this movie for many years to come. I just love how sincere it is.

Agreed! Everyone has their own tastes. Just as much as we love it, you have people who don’t. And that’s okay. I do feel that some are hyperbolic in calling it the worst movie ever made. For example, everyone I know loves Scarface. I think it’s one of the most overrated movies I have ever seen. 
 

Seems WW84 is a victim of its own “success” at the box office. Had it made 10 million opening weekend, everyone would have called it a nice opening. Then the drop this week would have been slightly less exaggerated. 
 

Looks like HBOMAX will get a fair number of new subscribers, but I think they should be more thoughtful about this strategy with their 2021 slate. How many movies will yield WW84 type returns in new subs? Personally, I think it’s best to release some of their movies in theaters when it’s safer to do so and not when only 39% of theaters are open for business here in the US and Europe is pretty much closed.

 

I’ll be very interested to see the stats released on new subs from Warner at the months end. After all, that was their endgame. 

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Wait, I'm confused. I assumed that the weekend numbers for WW84 would cover the entire week. There's no way it only made $5 million all week after a $16 million weekend. So are they just never going to report the weekday numbers?

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, WandaLegion said:

This could end up looking better or worse once we see more hybrid SVOD runs. It’s possible that they’ll make it up in MAX subs, but the amount needed to break even will be just a bit higher. 

For some platform in some market very soon things could pivot into being able to keep already subscribed account X more months type of metric more than new customer (imagine that already partly the case for a Netflix in the USA/Canada) I think there was talk about them changing their metrics from new subs to simply views in general in recent year in how they evaluated their content value, making the comparison on a mature platform with the very new explosive growth release hard to do with somewhat public metric like new subs.

 

How good a movie did in new sub will be very dependant in when it released and it will probably be hard to compare over time, the second big movie on a platform will have a task of getting new subscriber way harder than the first one and a log model should quickly install itself.

Edited by Barnack
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the 2nd weekend drop is a bit harsh.....I can't believe it only added 12m in the past 7 days, regardless of the virus or not, it is still a holiday period.

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5 hours ago, Borobudur said:

the 2nd weekend drop is a bit harsh.....I can't believe it only added 12m in the past 7 days, regardless of the virus or not, it is still a holiday period.

you're seriously judging drops % in the current climate which is completely unprecedented, is changing every day and every week, and while there's nothing else to compare it to other than TENET ?

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5 hours ago, Avatree said:

you're seriously judging drops % in the current climate which is completely unprecedented, is changing every day and every week, and while there's nothing else to compare it to other than TENET ?

well.... we could compare it's drops to the other movies in release? 

WW 84 Down 67%

Croods up 25%

News of the world Down 25%

Monster Hunter up 14%

Fatale up 6%

Promising Young Women down 8%

Pinocchio up 6%
War with Grandpa up 27%

 

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39 minutes ago, Ledmonkey96 said:

well.... we could compare it's drops to the other movies in release? 

WW 84 Down 67%

Croods up 25%

News of the world Down 25%

Monster Hunter up 14%

Fatale up 6%

Promising Young Women down 8%

Pinocchio up 6%
War with Grandpa up 27%

 

Well, none of them are currently free on tv to subscribers:)...even PVOD still makes you pay for just a single view a single time:)...

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2 minutes ago, TwoMisfits said:

Well, none of them are currently free on tv to subscribers:)...even PVOD still makes you pay for just a single view a single time:)...

This is probably a big part of the brutal drop, but it’s still correct to observe that it’s a brutal drop. 

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Posted (edited)
8 minutes ago, WandaLegion said:

This is probably a big part of the brutal drop, but it’s still correct to observe that it’s a brutal drop. 

Were people seriously expecting this to hold well domestically? Surely even the people who adamantly wanted to see it on opening weekend on a big screen would choose the significantly cheaper HBO Max option for rewatches.

Edited by SnokesLegs
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1 minute ago, SnokesLegs said:

Were people seriously expecting this to hold well domestically? Surely even the people who adamantly wanted to see it on opening weekend on a big screen would choose the significantly cheaper HBO Max option for rewatches.

Hold well? No, I doubt anyone was expecting that. But I don’t think many people were expecting it to hold this poorly either with winter holidays and no competition.

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There’s no real frame of reference to compare this movie’s drop to. We’re gonna have to wait and see how future WB movies that are being released simultaneously on HBO Max hold. 

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Posted (edited)
21 minutes ago, SnokesLegs said:

Were people seriously expecting this to hold well domestically? Surely even the people who adamantly wanted to see it on opening weekend on a big screen would choose the significantly cheaper HBO Max option for rewatches.

If a movie without thursday previews nor competition would have achieved -54% during the holidays, I am not sure many would have been surprised and calling it extraordinary high hold.

News to the world launched at the same time and made 2.4 its OW after the second sunday, Promising Young Woman 2.6, Pinocchio 2.86 not necessarily specially good for the release date in a regular year, but otherwise that would be very solid hold.

If we compare with 2009 the latest time Christmas was a friday, it was in that similar windows:

Sherlock Holmes was a 2.27

Its complicated 2.67

Tree Idiots 2.9

Chipmunks 3.2

 

 

WW was at 1.7, making the HBO Max factor you mention probably a big deal (and a bigger factor, that was not necessarily easy to access it is not like the HBO Max option didn't depress the OW itself as well).

Edited by Barnack
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Just now, WittyUsername said:

There’s no real frame of reference to compare this movie’s drop to. We’re gonna have to wait and see how future WB movies that are being released simultaneously on HBO Max hold. 

It could give some clues, but the next time we have the chance to see a WB movies release and hyped sequel simultaneously on HBO max during the holidays with about 0 competition in theater, could never happen again this decade, please make this situation never happen again. (and Christmas falling out in a not too different ways is a factor as well)

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