Wonder Woman 1984 | Dec 16 2020 OS | Dec 25 2020 US and on HBO MAX

[Porthos]

We just had a movie LAST YEAR do 700m opening in FEBRUARY and @excel1 is trying to say June is a bad date?

 

Pull the other one, it has bells on as the saying goes.

[TMP]

Can someone just thread-ban excel if he's just gonna keep concern trolling?

[excel1]

It's not trolling. The "isolation" factor is a significant variable these days. BP opened in a dead market- huge fish in a small pond. Early June is a vastly different market

[excel1]

39 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

WW had really strong marketing, you can’t blame the marketing. In my opinion, the damage from the past DCEU movies is what caused it to go low (note: IIRC it had the highest solo CBM debut at the time). 

 

I mean AOU did less than JW with the first of May corridor.

 

MayPac hurt Dulltron a lot. JW also opened after several weekends full of small openers. San Andreas w/ only $54m was biggest opening over previous 3 weeks, nobody else broke $33m. 

[YM!]

19 minutes ago, excel1 said:

It's not trolling. The "isolation" factor is a significant variable these days. BP opened in a dead market- huge fish in a small pond. Early June is a vastly different market

Who says June isn’t isolated, the only real threats to WW1984’s run is Tenet as everything is counterprogramming when originally WW had tougher competition.

 

I am not denying Fast 9, but it’s should be a non factor DOM and Black Widow screams more as TWS/DS run than say GOTG/CM/BP. March has two potential $300M+ grossers in Onward and Mulan, BOP has a small chance for $300M but I’m more in the DS range for it, and even though Annapurna is incompetent I think Bond 25 will be bigger than Fast 9 DOM. And that’s excluding Black Widow as considering the year Disney has had this year, I’m sure they wouldn’t back down from that spot. The only good thing about WW1984 moving to May is Mother’s Day but it’d miss out on Summer days. 

 

What happened to Pets 2 and Dark Phoenix wasn’t due to opening in early June, it was because audiences were tired of both franchises as well as mixed reception. I don’t think WW1984 will have those problems as I think it’d do more or less about the same anywhere on the calendar ($140M/$450M DOM)

[Porthos]

14 minutes ago, excel1 said:

It's not trolling. The "isolation" factor is a significant variable these days. BP opened in a dead market- huge fish in a small pond. Early June is a vastly different market

There is always going to be competition.  If you're good and better, you'll get rewarded.  If you're dreck, you won't.  

 

If WW1984 is as big as you think it's gonna be the calendar is gonna empty around it on its own.  As I look, I don't see anything big within two weeks on either end of it.  That's as good as it's gonna get nowadays.

 

I mean, look at the following schedule:

 

Quote

May (Details)
• Untitled Marvel Movie (May 2020) (BV) - 5/1
• Greyhound (Sony) - 5/8
• Legally Blonde 3 (MGM) - 5/8
• Scooby (WB) - 5/15
• Fast & Furious 9 (Uni.) - 5/22
• The SpongeBob Movie (Par.) - 5/22
• Artemis Fowl (BV) - 5/29

June (Details)
• Wonder Woman 1984 (WB) - 6/5
• Candyman (2020) (Uni.) - 6/12
• Untitled Judd Apatow/Pete Davidson Comedy(Uni.) - 6/19
• Untitled Pixar Animation (June 2020) (BV) - 6/19
• In the Heights (WB) - 6/26
• Top Gun (2020) (Par.) - 6/26

BW will be in its SIXTH weekend and thus irrelevant.  FF9 is in its third weekend, and so shouldn't be a problem.  Unknown Pixar flick will be in WW1984's third weekend and is probably different enough not to matter.  Top Gun, if that actually matters, will be in WW1984's fourth weekend.

 

This is... a pretty damn good schedule.  A great one even.  Nothing in the week before it, probably.  Nothing in the week after it.  Second week after it isn't direct competition.

 

Frankly, moving WW1984 up would be malpractice on the part of WB.

 

...

 

50/50 chance on them doing it, then. 

[Porthos]

3 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Who says June isn’t isolated, the only real threats to WW1984’s run is Tenet as everything is counterprogramming when originally WW had tougher competition.

And that's July 17th, right? Unless they've moved it without me paying attention.

 

If that's still the date, it's completely irrelevant to WW1984's run, except for possibly super late legs.

[TMP]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Top Gun, if that actually matters

Mission 7 just did $700m+, I think Top Gun 2 would make a dent.

[Darth Lehnsherr]

3 minutes ago, Porthos said:

There is always going to be competition.  If you're good and better, you'll get rewarded.  If you're dreck, you won't.  

 

If WW1984 is as big as you think it's gonna be the calendar is gonna empty around it on its own.  As I look, I don't see anything big within two weeks on either end of it.  That's as good as it's gonna get nowadays.

 

I mean, look at the following schedule:

 

BW will be in its SIXTH weekend and thus irrelevant.  FF9 is in its third weekend, and so shouldn't be a problem.  Unknown Pixar flick will be in WW1984's third weekend and is probably different enough not to matter.  Top Gun, if that actually matters, will be in WW1984's fourth weekend.

 

This is... a pretty damn good schedule.  A great one even.  Nothing in the week before it, probably.  Nothing in the week after it.  Second week after it isn't direct competition.

 

Frankly, moving WW1984 up would be malpractice on the part of WB.

 

...

 

50/50 chance on them doing it, then. 

Man really hope something unexpected breaks out next summer cause if not we're gonna be looking at a pretty dire situation maybe even worse than 2014. 

[excel1]

WW84, leading off the summer and as the first major comic book film in nearly a year (I don't really count BIRDS OF PREY) will open to gangbusters numbers. It will be the main event of quarters 1 and 2 of 2020.

 

Release after a slew of large hit and it won't do near as much. Facts

[YM!]

Just now, Porthos said:

And that's July 17th, right? Unless they've moved it without me paying attention.

 

If that's still the date, it's completely irrelevant to WW1984's run, except for possibly super late legs.

And Tenet might not even do more than Dunkirk numbers. And WB will likely do double features with it and Tenet anyways.

 

Nothing else in June-August except for the Pixar movie, Jungle Cruise and maybe In The Heights is crossing $200M DOM and those last two are generous.

[Porthos]

1 minute ago, TMP said:

Mission 7 just did $700m+, I think Top Gun 2 would make a dent.

Even if it does, that's still the fourth weekend of WW1984's run.  If folks are worried about the films coming out in the fourth weekend of a film's run, it's gotta bigger problems that need to be sorted out.

[Porthos]

2 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Release after a slew of large hit and it won't do near as much. Facts

Gosh, how shall we tell the fans of TS4 that it's gonna flatline after the Endgame/Wick 3/Aladdin triple combo.

[YM!]

1 minute ago, excel1 said:

WW84, leading off the summer and as the first major comic book film in nearly a year (I don't really count BIRDS OF PREY) will open to gangbusters numbers. It will be the main event of quarters 1 and 2 of 2020.

 

Release after a slew of large hit and it won't do near as much. Facts

And how says Disney wouldn’t budge. For all we know, they’d be more than willing to put it the week before WW84 (like the acronym you used), as we have seen Disney was willing to put and keep Aladdin and TS4, two major all ages family tentpoles in the middle of Pets 2. What makes you think they wouldn’t do the same to WW84.

 

Also I think Mulan may breakout if it plays its cards right. It is one of the first major tentpole with Asian American cast and Disney nostalgia as a botched Aladdin is doing $330M DOM.

[YM!]

4 minutes ago, Porthos said:

Even if it does, that's still the fourth weekend of WW1984's run.  If folks are worried about the films coming out in the fourth weekend of a film's run, it's gotta bigger problems that need to be sorted out.

Top Gun would be lucky to do $100M and probably do what MIBI does, no1cur. 

[YM!]

9 minutes ago, excel1 said:

Release after a slew of large hit and it won't do near as much. Facts

The only thing in the summer that can do $200M before it is Black Widow.

 

WB/WAG are going to try like hell to push Scoob but due to their incompetence in family films, TLM2 numbers seem spot on.

 

Spongebob and Fast 9 will decrease as sequelitits is stronger and real.

 

Legally Blonde 3 seems at best for $100M. 

[TMP]

12 minutes ago, YourMother the Edgelord said:

Top Gun would be lucky to do $100M and probably do what MIBI does, no1cur. 

If Tom Cruise got replaced by Luke Hemsworth then maybe?

[Wonder89]

 

[BoxOfficeZ]

Apparently the current cut of the film is pretty damn good from what I've heard so honestly I have faith wherever it gets placed. Depends also on marketing and what angle WB is going to target. 

[MrGamer]