Tuesday Numbers : WW: 14.4M

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, James said:

Considering WW basically played like a family movie on OW, with a huge Saturday and a small drop on Sunday, I don't see why the increases over the weekend would be so small. I am thinking something like:

16.2

22.8

16

55M weekend, 47% drop, 203-204M Total

Of course you don't  Your weekend looks waaaaaay too generous.

[James]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

Of course you don't  Your weekend looks waaaaaay too generous.

I am just betting on it to be a 4 quad movie. Seeing how it had way better increases than GOTG over the OW, why would it follow the increases of that movie in the second WE?

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, James said:

I am just betting on it to be a 4 quad movie. Seeing how it had way better increases than GOTG over the OW, why would it follow the increases of that movie in the second WE?

GOTG came out in the heart of the summer. A decent amount of schools are still in session, so I may be lowballing the Friday increase, but I feel set on the rest..

Edited June 7, 2017 by WrathOfHan

[John Marston]

34 minutes ago, Caladbolg said:

1	(1)	Wonder Woman	Warner Bros.	$14,342,175	+22%	4,165	$3,443	$129,350,709	5
2	(2)	Pirates of the Caribbean: D…	Walt Disney	$3,410,496	+35%	4,276	$798	$121,027,726	12
3	(3)	Captain Underpants: The Fir…	20th Century Fox	$2,701,983	+35%	3,434	$787	$28,556,637	5
4	(4)	Baywatch	Paramount Pictures	$1,514,004	+34%	3,647	$415	$44,606,002	13
5	(5)	Guardians of the Galaxy Vol 2	Walt Disney	$1,436,102	+31%	3,507	$409	$358,116,014	33
6	(6)	Alien: Covenant	20th Century Fox	$685,586	+25%	2,660	$258	$68,574,760	19
7	(7)	Everything, Everything	Warner Bros.	$601,321	+30%	2,375	$253	$29,348,554	19
8	(8)	Diary of a Wimpy Kid: The L…	20th Century Fox	$251,444	+29%	2,088	$120	$18,340,028	19
9	(9)	Snatched	20th Century Fox	$228,384	+32%	1,625	$141	$44,249,009	26
10	(10)	King Arthur: Legend of the …	Warner Bros.	$206,400	+39%	1,222	$169	$37,531,172	26
11	(12)	The Boss Baby	20th Century Fox	$114,311	+19%	684	$167	$171,132,414	68
12	(11)	Beauty and the Beast	Walt Disney	$99,622	+3%	527	$189	$502,332,938	82
13	(13)	The Fate of the Furious	Universal	$74,270	+12%	593	$125	$223,947,955	54

 

 

Like that Pirates number 

[ZeeSoh]

4 minutes ago, James said:

I am just betting on it to be a 4 quad movie. Seeing how it had way better increases than GOTG over the OW, why would it follow the increases of that movie in the second WE?

 

GoTG2 came out when schools were still in session. WW has the advantage of having more than half the schools and most colleges already on holiday. So you cannot compare their day to day drops. GoTG had harsher weekday drops but better weekend holds. WW will have better weekday holds than gotg but wont have the same weekend increases. That is why you cannot use gotg2's weekend increases for this. 

[James]

13 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

GoTG2 came out when schools were still in session. WW has the advantage of having more than half the schools and most colleges already on holiday. So you cannot compare their day to day drops. GoTG had harsher weekday drops but better weekend holds. WW will have better weekday holds than gotg but wont have the same weekend increases. That is why you cannot use gotg2's weekend increases for this. 

I was talking about the original GOTG.

[PanaMovie]

1 minute ago, James said:

I was talking about the original GOTG.

I agree with you James

 

First Class increase 86% in 2011 on the same day

 

Thinking maybe 60-80% increase

[MovieMan89]

6 hours ago, Scubasteve716 said:

Deadline is saying in their article $60 mil for WW second weekend? Bit of a stretch right?

IF that happened, wouldn't that be the best CBM second weekend hold since SM1? 

[ZeeSoh]

18 minutes ago, James said:

I was talking about the original GOTG.

 

Oh my bad i thought u were talking about GOTG2. 

[MovieMan89]

I think 300 looks really great. It will be at at least 200m after this weekend. That's more than enough in 10 days for 300 to happen with summer weekdays (plus no direct competition at all in its third weekend). 

Edited June 7, 2017 by MovieMan89

[ZeeSoh]

8 minutes ago, MovieMan89 said:

IF that happened, wouldn't that be the best CBM second weekend hold since SM1? 

 

Yup spiderman fell 37.8 on its second weekend which is the best second weekend hold of any SH movie that i know of. If WW does 60m that would be a 42% drop. The closest to that is the 43.4% fall of Batman Begins. Deadline is crazy if they think WW will only fall 42%

Edited June 7, 2017 by ZeeSoh

[MovieMan89]

Just now, ZeeSoh said:

 

Yup spiderman fell 37.8 on its second weekend which is the best second weekend hold of any SH movie that i know of. If WW does 60m that would be a 42% drop. That closest to that is the 43.4% fall of Batman Begins. Deadline is crazy if they think WW will only fall 42%

Yeah, that seems like a reach for sure, but 53-55 wouldn't surprise me. 

[ChiSoxRox]

If Wonder Woman manages to pull a 53+, could a 36 third weekend be in reach? That would be the fifth largest third weekend for a cbm, behind the two Avengers, Spider-Man 1, and Dark Knight. 

Edited June 7, 2017 by ChiSoxRox
Missed Spidey

[cory]

Yeah I'm feeling around a 52-55M 2nd weekend right now. 

 

Low: 15-20-14 = 49 (-53%)

Older skewing: 16-21-15 = 52 (-49%)

Younger skewing: 16-23-15 = 54 (-47%)

 

 

Still thinking 301-304M total. 3.0X is not in play yet.

Edited June 7, 2017 by cory

[John Marston]

16 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Yup spiderman fell 37.8 on its second weekend which is the best second weekend hold of any SH movie that i know of. If WW does 60m that would be a 42% drop. The closest to that is the 43.4% fall of Batman Begins. Deadline is crazy if they think WW will only fall 42%

 

 

and Batman Begins opened on Wednesday so it is not comparable

[Fancyarcher]

Great number. I think a 52% to 53% drop will happen.

[BadAtGender]

Looking at the recent post-Memorial Day openers and how they increased on their second Friday:

 

2016:

TMN2: +83%

Me Before You: +57%

Popstar: +31%

 

2015:

San Andreas: +118%

Aloha: +74%

 

2014:

Maleficent: +89%

A Million Ways to Die in the West: +77%

 

2013:

Now You See Me: +98%

After Earth: +93%

 

2012:

SWATh: +84%

 

 

It seems like a Friday boost of above 80% wouldn't be unheard of.  Second Saturday bumps hit at least 30%, though both San Andreas and TMNT2 both did 40-50%. And Second Sunday drops look to be about 25-30%.

 

So, going off of a 9m Thursday (which, honestly, seems a bit low):

 

16m Friday (+80%)

21m Saturday (+30%)

15m Sunday (-30%)

 

For a 52m weekend.

 

On the high end, I could see a 10m Thursday, 18m Friday, 25m Saturday, and 19m Sunday for a 63m weekend.

 

And for a pessimistic scenario, 9m Thursday, 15m Friday, 19m Saturday, 14m Sunday for a 48m weekend.

[ZeeSoh]

9 minutes ago, ChiSoxRox said:

If Wonder Woman manages to pull a 53+, could a 36 third weekend be in reach? That would be the fifth largest third weekend for a cbm, behind the two Avengers, Spider-Man 1, and Dark Knight. 

 

Not even spiderman managed a 32% drop in its third weekend. WW will have a good 3rd weekend hold due to Father's Day on Sunday but 32% drop is pushing it

[TwoMisfits]

17 minutes ago, ZeeSoh said:

 

Not even spiderman managed a 32% drop in its third weekend. WW will have a good 3rd weekend hold due to Father's Day on Sunday but 32% drop is pushing it

 

I disagree...what are dads gonna go to?  Mummy is gonna bomb, Pirates/Aliens did bomb and/or were not for GA, GOTG2 will be out of a lot of theaters, they ain't going to Rough Night...

 

Cars 3 is like the only other movie Mom would choose to take Dad and the kids to...and Dad himself may choose WW over that, especially if Cars 3 comes in with reviews like some of the ones above...

[The Panda]

I'm not sold on a sub 50% drop yet, but sub-55% could easily happen.  It has all of the right factors to have solid legs.