THE INCREDIBLES II | 634.2 M overseas ● 1242.8 M worldwide

[KP1025]

30 minutes ago, Taruseth said:

The only movies that got past 600M for OS-Ch-J are

...

Ice Age 4 $620M

I keep forgetting how huge Ice Age 4 was internationally. $716 million OS was an astonishing amount for an animated film back in 2012, especially one that didn't get a theatrical release in Japan. I think the correct figure would be $648 million OS-Ch-J since China was $68 million and Japan was $0. 

 

Too bad the 5th film dropped off a cliff.

Edited August 8, 2018 by KP1025

[Omni]

When you exclude Marvel and SW7, the only real exeptions are Jurassic World and Minions, as the Hobbits, IA4 and likely also Skyfall would all adjust to 600M or less with current ERs (Skyfall would lose like 50M from UK alone).

Of course it's not an eternal rule, but what's sure is that in the last years there's some sort of OS-C-J range (the 500s) in which every huge blockbuster tends to fall (which indicates that when it comes to EU, LA, Australia and other smaller markets the differences tend to compensate each other). In other words, there seems to be a limit that be overtaken only by a huge fanbase or a phenomenon status. Again, in other words, you need China (and Japan) to go really big.

[KP1025]

4 minutes ago, Omni said:

When you exclude Marvel and SW7, the only real exeptions are Jurassic World and Minions, as the Hobbits, IA4 and likely also Skyfall would all adjust to 600M or less with current ERs (Skyfall would lose like 50M from UK alone).

 

What about Furious 7?

[Omni]

I was replying to the list posted by Taruseth. Fast 7 is a perfect example of the "phenomenon status" I mentioned at the end of the post.

[pepsa]

57 minutes ago, Omni said:

I was replying to the list posted by Taruseth. Fast 7 is a perfect example of the "phenomenon status" I mentioned at the end of the post.

I think jurasic world also fit that description. None saw it getting 1.6B+ think most were thinking around 800m-1B. 

And if you are going by todays ER even Avengers would get in the 500-600m OS -China/Japan range. 

[titanic2187]

Total Lifetime Grosses

Domestic:	$589,874,600	54.2%
+ Foreign:	$498,600,000	45.8%
= Worldwide:	$1,088,474,600

[titanic2187]

INCREDIBLES 2

Disney

In the 9th offshore weekend, Disney/Pixar’s Incredibles 2 is kissing $500M internationally. The frame added $14.6Min 34 material markets for $498.6M to date. The global total has risen to $1,088.5M making the superhero sequel Pixar’s biggest release ever worldwide. Also notable, in the UK, Incredibles 2 has passed Toy Story 2 to become the 2nd highest grossing Disney/Pixar animated movie of all time.

 

Holds are strong, including in Japan where the Parr family jumped up 30% for $19.3M so far.

The UK is the top overseas hub at $58.4M, overtaking China which is now No. 2 with $53.6M, followed by Mexico ($37.2M), Brazil ($36M) and France ($35.5M). Still to come are Italy and Germany next month.

[PanaMovie]

Thinking 

 

610M OS 

610M DOM

 

1,22B WW

 

 

Edited August 13, 2018 by PanaMovie

[Omni]

Holds are apparently not that strong if it drops by 25% despite its main market increasing over last weekend.

[pepsa]

1 hour ago, Omni said:

Holds are apparently not that strong if it drops by 25% despite its main market increasing over last weekend.

Probably will go up with actuals, and it still plays in Some markets were it might be dropping out of completely. 

SK last week: $920k, this week $130k. On only a $15m weekend this $800k is a 4% drop already. 

Edited August 13, 2018 by pepsa

[Quigley]

double post

Edited August 14, 2018 by Quigley

[Quigley]

According to my calculations, Disney's 2018 WW gross is now at $6.063B. It's weird that no BO site has announced this, since it is the 3rd year in a row for the studio that it crosses $6B and only the fourth overall (the other being Universal in 2015 with $6.9B).

 

It will probs get to $6.4B from existing films. Then my predictions for the rest are:

Nutcracker: $400-700M

WR2: $550-750M

MP2: $600-900M

 

Taking into account that WR2 and MP2 will be released in certain places after New Year, the range for 2018 grossess from these 3 films is $0.9–1.35B, so the range for Disney's final WW total is $7.3–7.75B. 

[a2k]

With Italy and Germany yet to open, Japan holiday boost to come and steady dom bo, 1.2b looks acheivable.

[CoolK]

It can add another $15-20 mn from dom

[CoolK]

12 hours ago, a2k said:

With Italy and Germany yet to open, Japan holiday boost to come and steady dom bo, 1.2b looks acheivable.

15 - 20mn dom+ 10-15mn Italy +25-30 MN Germany. 

Needs 60mn+ from hold overs.. To reach 1.2b+

[a2k]

6 hours ago, CoolK said:

15 - 20mn dom+ 10-15mn Italy +25-30 MN Germany. 

Needs 60mn+ from hold overs.. To reach 1.2b+

depends on where it falls in those ranges you used. if it hits the high end then will be 45 away from 1.2b. japan should do 20-25 more after sunday.

[pepsa]

6 hours ago, CoolK said:

15 - 20mn dom+ 10-15mn Italy +25-30 MN Germany. 

Needs 60mn+ from hold overs.. To reach 1.2b+

Japan will do around $16.8m this week. 

4x $2.3m + $2.6m Wed and a $5m WE

 

It was at $18.6m after this WE, it will be around $35.4m after the comming weekend. 

If the holds is good after the obon festival I2 could indeed add another $20m-$25m. At the moment I am thinking more like $15m-$20m (I am a bit conservative and a2k probably has better insight then me, I just don't want to get my expectations up). 

 

It still has Den, Fin, Nor, Swe left, FD did $12.6m in those markets. So I2 will likely get close/match that. So I think $10m is fair. 

DOM $606m 

OS: $499m + $35.5m Jap (conservative) + $10m Scandinavia + $12m Italy + $30m Germany = $586.5m we only need $7.5m from hold overs.

What I am certain of: $0.6m Bel (it's a terrible year for Bel boxoffice in case of 'hits', rip my country) $1m Netherlands. France will do $5m or a bit more, Brazil has $0.7m left. UK will atleast do $6m more and Spain will also do $4.5m+. With these markets we get the OS total up to $604.3m.

 

A $1.23B seems about where it will land.  

[kayumanggi]

498.8 M overseas ● 1090.6 M worldwide

Edited October 10, 2018 by kayumanggi

[MaxAggressor]

 

[Andreas]

I2 made it to $526.8M OS as of Sunday and grossed an estimated $2.33M in the US this weekend.

Total stands at $1.121B ww