American Assassin and American Made UNDER 45M

[That One Girl]

4 minutes ago, Alli said:

AA has more likes than AM on youtube and also more likes on RT.  Could be a surprise

 

This is one of the worst tracking methods I've seen in quite some time.

[Zakiyyah6]

Just now, That Floating Guy said:

 

This is one of the worst tracking methods I've seen in quite some time.

It really is.

[Alli]

1 minute ago, That Floating Guy said:

 

This is one of the worst tracking methods I've seen in quite some time.

why is it bad?  the likes are more important than views imo

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

why is it bad?  the likes are more important than views imo

 

The most viewed trailer for American Assassin is 3.395M with 19,418 likes.  The most viewed for American Made is 5.727M views with 12,480 likes.  While admittedly it's a difference, it's only a difference of 6,938.  Plus, there are still 2.332M more views than American Assassin, and there's no telling which of them actually liked the trailer but didn't hit the like button.  Dylan O'Brien also has a dedicated group of teenage fans, so they all probably liked the video out of obligation.

[That One Girl]

2 minutes ago, Alli said:

why is it bad?  the likes are more important than views imo

 

The most viewed trailer for American Assassin is 3.395M with 19,418 likes.  The most viewed for American Made is 5.727M views with 12,480 likes.  While admittedly it's a difference, it's only a difference of 6,938.  Plus, there are still 2.332M more views than American Assassin, and there's no telling which of them actually liked the trailer but didn't hit the like button.  Dylan O'Brien also has a dedicated group of teenage fans, so they all probably liked the video out of obligation.

[Barnack]

7 minutes ago, Alli said:

why is it bad?  the likes are more important than views imo

You could test it:

With that list of views before release and OW performance:

http://www.boxofficereport.com/trailerviews/owyoutuberatios.html

 

And building say 25 movie from those getting their number of likes, you could maybe see which has a better correlation (it is important to use the number of likes before release)

 

Has a warning, all metric like that need to be adjusted by how much the audience are in the demography that go like youtube video/use RT, say how much it target white young male for example, and I feel AA is particularly in that demo.

[Ethan Hunt]

I don't think I've ever like a video on YouTube

[Barnack]

10 minutes ago, Ethan Hunt said:

I don't think I've ever like a video on YouTube

I imagine that is the case for most didn't, before it was integrate to a youtube account a Imagine almost no one was on the site with an account at all to do anything. Even less so ever wrote a comments under a video, who does that, who would try to a meaningful conversation there ?

 

It is a very special subgroup of people that do thinks like and it is easy to over-interpret those, not only they are a very small number of people but far from a random sample of the general audience of the video. Videos often have more than 1000 views for every 40 likes, that give an idea of how small the population that votes is.

Edited August 10, 2017 by Barnack

[Mike Branson]

In. 

$35 million maybe

[junkshop36]

I watch a lot of videos on YT and never hit the like button. Doesn't mean I didn't like it or anything, I just don't bother to click it lol

[Alli]

American Assassin had screening.  This guy gave it 6/10 

 

[Alli]

The UK opening for AM is the worst OW for Cruise ever. Even lower than ROA. It's on par with war Dogs which went to make 43M in the US.  Will the US follow suit. Me thinks this club has a chance of happening.

[Alli]

I changed it to UNDER 45M. I think AM will do similar to War Dogs. AA is a lost cause. You can vote in the poll i added

Edited August 27, 2017 by Alli

[Alli]

There's still time to vote. AM is doing really bad OS. It will not reach 100M. I feel like the US will continue the trend. A war dogs performance is in store

[Alli]

I am fearing AA will break out.  The original club was AA OVER AM. How crazy would it be if its happening

[SLAM!]

American Assassin was doing really good on one of the social media platforms. If this isn't a breakout-breakout, it'll at least be a regular plain old breakout. I think this will definitely, 100%, be lower than Baby Driver, for instance.

[BOOYAH SUCKAS]

American Assassin is fucking screwed at this point, but american made should have enough breathing room to be a minor breakout. The reviews are solid and with the popularity of the show narcos there's certainly some interest in a story like this. I could see American Made making about 50-55m

[Harley]

I haven't heard anyone even mention AA. I didn't realize it was still a thing till this week.  I thought it was released a long time ago.

[aabattery]

That acronym is fucking with me.

 

[Avatree]

12 hours ago, slambros said:

American Assassin was doing really good on one of the social media platforms. If this isn't a breakout-breakout, it'll at least be a regular plain old breakout. I think this will definitely, 100%, be lower than Baby Driver, for instance.

American Assassin under 100M? Hmmm, time to make a club... you're going all out balls to the wall crazy with your predictions.