5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[CoolioD1]

Just now, aabattery said:

I don't like the thought of Ethan being with Lily James so if we can nip this take in the bud I'd appreciate it.

and i don't like the thought of ansel elgort

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

isn't scott pilgrim more of an ethan hunt thing? (i'm doing a lazy 'ethan and his exes' joke. idk, someone else connect those dots)

 

Oh, I get it, because seven evil exes!  Haha!

[WrathOfHan]

I want a version of Baby Driver with me in the lead. I'd still keep the quietness of Baby, but I wouldn't be getting anywhere with teh girls  

[That One Girl]

Just now, WrathOfHan said:

I want a version of Baby Driver with me in the lead. I'd still keep the quietness of Baby, but I wouldn't be getting anywhere with teh girls  

 

You'd piss your pants in the scene where Debora approaches you and run away probably

[CoolioD1]

a version of baby driver with me, where his ipod is instead filled with improv comedy podcasts.

[Blankments]

I have a hot take though on that whole "best action comedy in years" thing, but IK if I post it, everyone will call me a fanboy of a certain other director(s)

[TwoMisfits]

3 minutes ago, Jonwo said:

 

It has the advantage of being a known title, most people have either read the book or saw the miniseries and the response to the first trailer was great. I expect WB will release another trailer at Comic Con then promote the crap out of it throughout August. 

 

$40m+ OW would not surprise me, if not higher. 

 

Think higher...if it's actually any good, I could see it break the September OW record...

[WrathOfHan]

Just now, That One Guy said:

 

You'd piss your pants in the scene where Debora approaches you and run away probably

*awkward silence for 5 seconds*

"So I was wondering if you'd like to go on a date with me this weekend."

"I have a boyfriend."

 

[kswiston]

13 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

This is true.  There's too many cases, even this year, of RT holding no effect for me to believe it has any more than a marginal effect on the Box Office.  I think the cases where critics help or hurt is when it comes to movies like Baby Driver or Get Out, that don't have much awareness but reviews help to get it out on the front pages of the trades (and work as a marketing tool).

 

On a different forum, I had a thread examining RT score vs domestic gross for all big budget films (~$75M+) released from the start of 2017 until two weeks ago (with estimated final totals for Cars 3, Wonder Woman, and the Mummy).

 

Here's a plot

 

 

Here are some summary statistics

 

 

The No Outliers Average column is the average for Fresh and Rotten films if you drop the Top 5 and Bottom 5 grossers from each.  

 

There's definitely a correlation between critic consensus and audience receptivity for larger films, even if RT score is not directly causing the box office results above. 

 

Small films can do well on much smaller returns, so I don't think reviews matter as much (outside of prestige dramas). 

Edited July 1, 2017 by kswiston

[Jonwo]

1 minute ago, TwoMisfits said:

 

Think higher...if it's actually any good, I could see it break the September OW record...

 

I can see It breaking the September record then Kingsman breaks it again two weeks later

[Nova]

Baby Driver is one of the best movies ever and anyone who says otherwise is a hater. 

 

Thats my hot take. 

 

Now give me my friday numbers so i can relish in the fact that Baby Driver is making money. 

[CoolioD1]

1 minute ago, WrathOfHan said:

*awkward silence for 5 seconds*

"So I was wondering if you'd like to go on a date with me this weekend."

"I have a boyfriend."

 

Baby Driver with you would be good because they'd save money on music licensing. you'd just be listening to this on a loop.

 

 

[TwoMisfits]

Just now, Jonwo said:

 

I can see It breaking the September record then Kingsman breaks it again two weeks later

 

I could, too...if Kingsman is any good...but then again, It could make us rethink September like GOTG 1 and Suicide Squad made us rethink August:)...

[WrathOfHan]

1 minute ago, CoolioD1 said:

Baby Driver with you would be good because they'd save money on music licensing. you'd just be listening to this on a loop.

 

 

[Barnack]

30 minutes ago, The Panda said:

I haven't been able to find any statistically significant correlation between BO gross and Tomatometer.  Even when I've factored in genre, budget, and so forth

 

That sound a bit surprising to me. Like you said I would have suspecting for the small movie for studio to push more on the marketing of "good movie" creating a correlation (even without causation), and for big budget movie to have better score in general (and once again creating some correlation).

 

Trying to google it, there is lot of noise by terrible research (that use all movies all together and not by release size or they are only looking at the successful movie by looking just at those who achieved a high number like 20 million or top 50 of the year's type of huge mistake in creating the sample)

 

 

http://www.metacritic.com/feature/film-quality-vs-box-office-grosses?ref=hp

 

Metascore Range	# of Films	Avg. Opening  Weekend	Avg. 2nd Weekend  Decline	Avg.  Multiplier	Avg. Total  Gross
Films scoring 0–19	22	$13,961,514	▼ 52.5%	2.6	$35,081,918
Films scoring 20–39	301	$16,503,055	▼ 50.2%	2.8	$47,785,166
all with bad reviews:	323	$16,329,947	▼ 50.4%	2.8	$46,919,929
Films scoring 40–50	294	$21,353,058	▼ 49.5%	2.9	$62,658,866
Films scoring 51–60	255	$26,890,484	▼ 46.2%	3.1	$81,265,377
all with mixed reviews:	549	$23,925,086	▼ 48.0%	3.0	$71,301,234
Films scoring 61–70	163	$35,480,314	▼ 44.2%	3.4	$112,446,672
Films scoring 71–80	87	$37,112,105	▼ 42.1%	3.8	$137,787,032
Films scoring 81–90	29	$49,583,445	▼ 38.8%	4.3	$197,836,138
Films scoring 91–100	7	$59,076,012	▼ 37.7%	4.1	$238,356,646
all with positive reviews:	286	$37,984,253	▼ 42.8%	3.6	$131,895,188

 

 

 

 

in 2007, when RT didn't had the reach than today, the 90-100% were making 2000$ more by screen and had a much better average box office by fresh movie than by rotten one:

 

 

If you would take the last 3 year's 2000 or so movie that got a theatrical release and split them by 0-9, 10-19%, etc... RT score, and look at those category of movie performance, I think you would see a pattern (now correlation does not mean causation).

Edited July 1, 2017 by Barnack

[Jonwo]

Just now, TwoMisfits said:

 

I could, too...if Kingsman is any good...but then again, It could make us rethink September like GOTG 1 and Suicide Squad made us rethink August:)...

 

TBH September has a number of successes in the last few years but nothing like say a Gravity or a Martian. 

[WrathOfHan]

I pretty much just dug myself into a hole I haven't been down in a week   

 

I HIT A WAAAAAAAAAAAALL

[Barnack]

17 minutes ago, The Panda said:

 

I fail to see how RT plays a role here?  You said yourself all of Edgar Wright's movies are acclaimed on RT, if so Baby Driver shouldn't be his first breakout.

 

You're looking at single data points that fit your story, but that's a flawed way to see if there's even a correlation (not to even be getting at causation).

 

The theory is that RT became more important since is last 90% score, but anyway the main message is that you were pointing out that despite an good score Baby Driver is only marginal performing better, well no it look like it could be doing 100% better, if not more.

 

Now like I said, it is not the only factor and we will not be able to isolate RT from one guy, one movie, but Daby Driver doubling the rest of Wright filmography certainly does not against the idea that RT has a more and more significant impact on a movie box office.

 

 

[BenedictL11]

@Wonder of Rth, any numbers for Baby Driver? i'm hoping it'll be closer to $6m than $5m.

[The Panda]

5 minutes ago, CJohn said:

The Tomato Law only went into full effect this year. It was on trial last year. It had pretty much no effect before that.

 

 

The Boss Baby - 173.3m (52%)

Piss poor animation reviews, only animated film to overperform this year.

 

Beauty and the Beast - 507.8m (71%)

Under your law it shouldn't have exploded

 

The LEGO Batman Movie - 175.8m (90%)

A near 100m decrease from the LEGO Movie despite great reviews and an open animated market.

 

Power Rangers - 40.3m Opening (46%)

Was tracking poorly before reviews, still opened above expectations, even with strong competition.  Had poor WoM though.

 

Captain Underpants - 75m? DOM (85%)

Best reviews for a Dreamworks movie since HTTYD2, and it'll be the worst grossing.  You botch some of that to Dreamworks intending on it being a cheap film and they picked a bad release date, but everyone who had it in their top 15 for the Summer game predicted higher.

 

Alien: Covenant - 74m? DOM (71%)

Certified fresh but had a poor opening, and terrible WoM.  Tomatometer didn't seem to overpower franchise fatigue.

 

And so on.

 

Maybe I'm just bringing up anecdotes and outliers, but I don't see a Tomato law in effect.  When the years done I'll be happy to do a statistical breakdown and run some regressions to see if I can even find any kind of correlation (there's not enough data points yet of wide releases for the year to do an effective one right now).  As of right now, I'm not buying it beyond having a marginal effect and possibly helping smaller, niche movies gain awareness.