5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[The Panda]

2 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Well, if it can push itself to 30M, or slightly more today, then 95M is still a big possibility. If it falls to 27M, then we end up in the low-80s.

 

Either way, it's showing wear from Minions and I wouldn't bank on 300m happening.  Universal will be fine because it's still making a good profit, but the franchise has peaked.

[Fancyarcher]

5 hours ago, grey ghost said:

I totally overpredicted DM3 for the summer game.

 

But how was I supposed to know marketing was going to nosedive after the impressive, first trailer?

 

Don't worry Ghost, most people expected it to do 90m+. A lot of people weren't predicting franchise fatigue to kick-in so soon anyway.

Edited July 1, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[John Marston]

7 minutes ago, grim22 said:

 

Both have followed the exact same trajectory, and the solution being proposed by fans for the 6th installment is also pretty much "Bring back the leads from the first 3 movies as full time characters"

 

Pirates still has Japan. It will finish with a higher gross tha TF5 domestically and worldwide 

[grim22]

The Blind Side is playing on TV. How did this movie manage to leg it to 255M from a 34M OW? I knew that it did well, but 255M is blockbuster numbers.

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

The Blind Side is playing on TV. How did this movie manage to leg it to 255M from a 34M OW? I knew that it did well, but 255M is blockbuster numbers.

 

Played well over the holidays and had fantastic WOM (it had an A+ CinemaScore) and Sandra Bullock had Oscar buzz for her role.

[Nova]

1 minute ago, grim22 said:

The Blind Side is playing on TV. How did this movie manage to leg it to 255M from a 34M OW? I knew that it did well, but 255M is blockbuster numbers.

The more important question is how did it get so much awards season love (best picture nominee) with such a middling critical response 53 on metacritic and 66% on RT 

 

 

[That One Girl]

1 minute ago, Nova said:

The more important question is how did it get so much awards season love (best picture nominee) with such a middling critical response 53 on metacritic and 66% on RT 

 

 

 

It was sort of an EL&IC and The Reader situation here then.

 

Except for the fact that The Blind Side is actually good.

[Barnack]

57 minutes ago, The Panda said:

Maybe I'm just bringing up anecdotes and outliers, but I don't see a Tomato law in effect.  When the years done I'll be happy to do a statistical breakdown and run some regressions to see if I can even find any kind of correlation (there's not enough data points yet of wide releases for the year to do an effective one right now).  As of right now, I'm not buying it beyond having a marginal effect and possibly helping smaller, niche movies gain awareness.

 

I did just try with the 165 movie that went wide (over 600) last year, and with every (well 5-6) test, movie over 3000 theater, between 1000 and 2500, over 4000, over 2000, etc....

 

I always come up with a positive correlation between RT and the opening WE box office (and a large one for total box office, RT would be possibly a good predictor of WOM), that said the R2 even thought clearly positive is really small in all those scenario opening weekend wise (a bit like the 2011 graph I pasted above).

 

Animation that is really robust, Franchise (BvS and Suicide Squad really make a bump in the low range), there is a lot of noise out here.

 

It is not easy, because the type of movie that it could help the most probably often never reach 600 theater without good reviews. Maybe if we remove animation and franchise it would give a better idea, but they are such a major part of the wide release output now.

 

Maybe an other way would be among movie of the same franchise with many entry (MCU, x-men, etc...)

[AniNate]

I understand the early over predictions for DM3 that were based on bona fide expectations of a good crowd pleaser. But what doesn't make sense is apparently expecting it to underwhelm at the box office after reviews started coming in could only be a view taken by someone who hates Illumination

[DAJK]

Cars got DECIMATED here today lol

 

fuck disney

[Barnack]

13 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Blind Side is playing on TV. How did this movie manage to leg it to 255M from a 34M OW? I knew that it did well, but 255M is blockbuster numbers.

 

Same legs has Hidden Figure, first weekend was 13.3% of Blind Side, 13.5% for Hidden Figures.

 

I would think it was a lot for the same reason in both case.

Both A+ cinemascore hugely Crowd pleaser (tailored for pure crowd pleasing), both got Oscar attention, both can play strong in middle america not just coastal, both got some of that church crowd for strong Sundays but could still play among non religious.

Edited July 1, 2017 by Barnack

[That One Girl]

The movie did not expand on the audiences that were already gonna see it.  it should open with like 85M and get a 3.2x or so and finish with like 272M.  Still a hit because of its small budget.

[Lordmandeep]

17 minutes ago, grim22 said:

The Blind Side is playing on TV. How did this movie manage to leg it to 255M from a 34M OW? I knew that it did well, but 255M is blockbuster numbers.

 

 

It was a very good feel good movie for people 

 

People get upset about it getting nominated but perhaps films seen by some people for once is not a bad thing lol 

Edited July 1, 2017 by Lordmandeep

[Mojoguy]

Cars got DECIMATED here today lol

fuck disney

Nope, I don't feel bad for Pixar. lol

[kswiston]

1 hour ago, The Panda said:

 

You'll really need to look at OWs if you're wanting to see if RT has a potential BO effect.  Not DOM grosses.  I remember finding a significant correlation between reviews and a movie's legs (especially when accounting for genre and budget), but that isn't likely a causation relationship, more of a happenstance.

 

I did the same thing with opening weekends when I collected the dom total numbers. It's not as clean because late December/holiday weekends/5-day openings have a bigger effect, but you get the same general pattern.

 

 

Again, that's all films with a reported production budget of ~$75M+ since 2015 (as of 2 weeks ago). 

 

Edited July 1, 2017 by kswiston

[Fancyarcher]

1 hour ago, Jonwo said:

 

TBH September has a number of successes in the last few years but nothing like say a Gravity or a Martian. 

 

I think as long as the studio occasionally or attempts to release a bigger budgeted "quality" film in September, there will be more "hits" during that month, so to say. 

[DAR]

Do we have any numbers?

[Blankments]

49 minutes ago, tribefan695 said:

They have a lot in common, really

 

Oh definitely. Wright and Lord/Miller are very similar and yet very different. I love them both, which is why I'm bummed I didn't like Baby Driver more than I expected

 

44 minutes ago, grim22 said:

But Han Solo is now a straight adventure movie apparently and no comedy anymore.

pls die

[baumer]

3 hours ago, DAR said:

Do we have any numbers?

 

Only Deadline's noon update.

[Rman823]

Please The Blind Side isn't even the worst Sandra Bullock movie to win an Oscar.