5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Brainbug]

3 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

What is this 'Tomato Law' people are talking about>

 

The Law basically says that movies which are fresh/certified fresh on RT have a high chance of succeding, while rotten movies will fail. The Tomato can sink the biggest blockbuster but can also elevate a small film to the box office heaven.

[baumer]

55 minutes ago, EmpireCity said:

 

Correct, but I don't think many theaters are running that today.  If anything, it is treated as Holiday pricing.  

 

 

I mean Canada didn't have it either.  So imo there should be some kind of increases.

[DMan7]

2 minutes ago, Southern European Guy said:

If your movie is Fresh on Rotten Tomatoes, you succeed.

If your movie is Rotten, you pray to the Gods of Overseas box office for help.

 

1 minute ago, Brainbug said:

 

The Law basically says that movies which are fresh/certified fresh on RT have a high chance of succeding, while rotten movies will fail. The Tomato can sink the biggest blockbuster but can also elevate a small film to the box office heaven.

 

Hmmmm, that seems reasonable, RT Scores now are a bigger thing for a movie's success than ever before. I guess the score is advertised in various online ticket purchasing sites as well which further encourages or discourages people to see the movie based on that score.

[cannastop]

1 hour ago, narniadis said:

Ugh DM3 continues to drop at least I have Baby Driver's numbers to be thrilled with (and WW closing in on 400m.)

Ain't no cure for the Summer Game blues.

[That One Girl]

34 minutes ago, CJohn said:

Transformers. Twice. Hail Paramount.

 

Passengers and Spectre. Sony. Twice. 

 

Godzilla and Edge of Tomorrow. Warner Bros. Twice.

 

I guess it is more used to reach a certain milestone that will give them more money for TV rights and other stuff.

 

Cinderella and Tangled.  Disney.  Twice.

[narniadis]

13 minutes ago, cannastop said:

Ain't no cure for the Summer Game blues.

 

Aint that the truth! And both Baby Driver and Wonder Woman are horrible for my game as well (one I didn't pick and the other well I just flat didn't go high enough)

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, That One Guy said:

 

Cinderella and Tangled.  Disney.  Twice.

Cinderalla reached the milestone fairly easily. Went 1.1 above 200. Dollar bump and a bump of 5 theaters is not fudgeing. The 5 theaters bumps seems inconsequential:

 

May 1–3	6	$2,745,090	-0.7%	1,411	-608	$1,945	$194,038,460	8
May 8–10	9	$1,681,560	-38.7%	1,034	-377	$1,626	$196,273,979	9
May 15–17	12	$631,608	-62.4%	641	-393	$985	$197,231,159	10
May 22–24	15	$413,952	-34.5%	356	-285	$1,163	$197,856,398	11
May 22–25	-	$556,356	-11.9%	356	-285	$1,563	$197,998,802	11
May 29–31	19	$242,908	-41.3%	249	-107	$976	$198,350,753	12
Jun 5–7	20	$303,470	+24.9%	302	+53	$1,005	$198,782,354	13
Jun 12–14	18	$261,863	-13.7%	270	-32	$970	$199,280,075	14
Jun 19–21	17	$344,535	+31.6%	275	+5	$1,253	$199,833,128	15
Jun 26–28	19	$261,264	-24.2%	235	-40	$1,112	$200,286,777	16
Jul 3–5	30	$115,169	-55.9%	175	-60	$658	$200,587,758	17
Jul 10–12	38	$59,506	-48.3%	127	-48	$469	$200,743,973	18
Jul 17–19	40	$47,983	-19.4%	104	-23	$461	$200,849,342	19
Jul 24–26	46	$29,052	-39.5%	70	-34	$415	$200,924,161	20
Jul 31–Aug 2	43	$36,624	+26.1%	64	-6	$572	$200,985,782	21
Aug 7–9	58	$17,336	-52.7%	52	-12	$333	$201,031,891	22
Aug 14–16	60	$16,406	-5.4%	45	-7	$365	$201,063,228	23
Aug 21–23	66	$11,485	-30.0%	35	-10	$328	$201,084,951	24
Aug 28–30	60	$16,460	+43.3%	34	-1	$484	$201,108,150	25
Sep 4–6	70	$13,266	-19.4%	30	-4	$442	$201,129,476	26
Sep 4–7	-	$20,005	+21.5%	30	-4	$667	$201,136,215	26
Sep 11–13	77	$8,103	-38.9%	26	-4	$312	$201,148,159	27

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[Jonwo]

12 hours ago, grim22 said:

 

WB has a tentpole free Summer 2018, which just seems weird. Their current summer 2018 lineup is

 

Ocean's 8	6/8/18
Tag	6/29/18
Untitled DC Film (July 2017)	7/27/18
Meg	8/10/18

 

The Nun

7/13/18

 

No tentpole movies in the main months of summer and Meg is their biggest Summer movie. They have Tomb Raider and Ready Player One in Spring and Jungle Book, FB2 and Aquaman in winter. Really strange lineup, especially if there is no DC movie in July.

 

I reckon they'll move Tomb Raider or Rampage to May. I don't see them risking RPO in the summer.

[kayumanggi]

I think it would be better if TOMB RAIDER stayed in March. Less competition.

[MCKillswitch123]

I don't know about them fasttracking a DCEU movie to Summer. It could happen (if they started production immediately after SDCC, and if it were something small like a Nightwing or a Gotham City Sirens), but considering that Ant-Man And The Wasp opens at the beginning of the month, and then Mission Impossible 6 comes right after, I don't think they wanna take the risk. As a matter of fact, Ocean's Eight should move from where it is, or it's gonna get slaughterfucked. If anything, I could see them move Rampage to July, and that's a big question mark on its own. Ready Player One is perfectly fine where it is, and Tomb Raider doesn't need to move either.

[grey ghost]

1 hour ago, The Dark Alfred said:

We don't know if it's one of the best of the Spidey films. It's not gonna have a 3x multiplier. Gonna perform like a yood Marvel hit, but doubt it will pass SM3.

 

The vast majority of critics say SMH is a top 2 Spider-man movie.

 

That's good enough for me.

 

 

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by grey ghost

[kswiston]

1 hour ago, CJohn said:

Transformers. Twice. Hail Paramount.

 

Passengers and Spectre. Sony. Twice. 

 

Godzilla and Edge of Tomorrow. Warner Bros. Twice.

 

I guess it is more used to reach a certain milestone that will give them more money for TV rights and other stuff.

 

Some of these weren't fudges. Godzilla hit $198M with normal drops, and then got a discount theatre bump near the end to push it over. Hundreds of movies follow the same pattern. Godzilla just happened to be close to a milestone. Edge of Tomorrow was the exact same thing. 

 

The Sony examples are suspect because they involve sustained upticks or drastic bumps on films that had been playing for like 3 months.

 

EDIT: Also, Sony kept Spectre playing for an unusually long time for a film that crawled to $200M. Like 6 days short of Jurassic World's run. 

Edited July 4, 2017 by kswiston

[RyneOh1040]

3 minutes ago, grey ghost said:

 

The vast majority of critics say SMH is a top 2 superhero movie.

 

That's good enough for me.

 

i'm just one person but its unequivocally one of the best superhero movies.  I only like Spidey 2 better because I found the Vulture to be a bit lacking but its a HUGE crowdpleaser and the definition of summer fun.

[Jake Gittes]

Yeah Godzilla and EOT weren't fudges. WB was clearly doing... something to get Superman Returns to 200m though, because those PTAs it had from mid-August to late September are inexplicable for a normal run. 

 

Aug 4–6	14	$2,158,227	-43.0%	1,710	-295	$1,262	$190,176,570	6
Aug 11–13	18	$1,242,461	-42.4%	750	-960	$1,656	$192,594,159	7
Aug 18–20	21	$848,255	-31.7%	383	-367	$2,214	$194,165,746	8
Aug 25–27	21	$780,405	-8.0%	311	-72	$2,509	$195,388,237	9
Sep 1–3	18	$874,141	+12.0%	281	-30	$3,110	$196,576,057	10
Sep 1–4	19	$1,115,228	+42.9%	281	-30	$3,968	$196,817,144	10
Sep 8–10	23	$453,273	-48.1%	241	-40	$1,880	$197,430,626	11
Sep 15–17	24	$386,424	-14.7%	144	-97	$2,683	$198,008,105	12
Sep 22–24	28	$301,373	-22.0%	124	-20	$2,430	$198,447,055	13
Sep 29–Oct 1	22	$403,377	+33.8%	410	+286	$983	$198,935,940	14
Oct 6–8	24	$296,502	-26.5%	388	-22	$764	$199,394,532	15
Oct 13–15	26	$216,430	-27.0%	348	-40	$621	$199,732,905	16
Oct 20–22	34	$173,300	-19.9%	303	-45	$571	$200,006,305	17
Oct 27–29	55	$40,505	-76.6%	41	-262	$987	$200,069,408	18

 

Edited July 4, 2017 by Jake Gittes

[AHepBurn]

I'm with the others in saying that I really don't think SM:H is going to massively break out. It's going to do well, have a good up-front presence, and likely hit numbers it probably wouldn't have solely because of he RDJ factor. But there simply isn't a novelty to it other than the idea that this Spider-Man is in the MCU, which is pretty meaningless for most people. We've had a lot of Spider-Man movies. We've had a lot of Marvel movies. Most Marvel movies get the same range of reviews. I don't think there's really anything in there that's a massive curiosity pull like the biggest female cape character at last getting her movie with WW. Nor is there a big demo-pull that will help it out in the long run like with having a female-centric pull with WW. The last Marvel movie to truly break out was... what? GotG? That was a novel concept and it's sequel did well, but far below the lofty +$400mil DOM, +$1bil WW expectations many had long before release. And that's not even going into the fact that were getting guaranteed decent performers like Apes (already well reviewed) and Dunkirk (Nolan has a strong fanbase).

[John Marston]

Smh is definitely making less than WW domestically by a decent amount. It will beat it worldwide though

[DMan7]

What are the predictions for SMH OW?

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, AHepBurn said:

I'm with the others in saying that I really don't think SM:H is going to massively break out. It's going to do well, have a good up-front presence, and likely hit numbers it probably wouldn't have solely because of he RDJ factor. But there simply isn't a novelty to it other than the idea that this Spider-Man is in the MCU, which is pretty meaningless for most people. We've had a lot of Spider-Man movies. We've had a lot of Marvel movies. Most Marvel movies get the same range of reviews. I don't think there's really anything in there that's a massive curiosity pull like the biggest female cape character at last getting her movie with WW. Nor is there a big demo-pull that will help it out in the long run like with having a female-centric pull with WW. The last Marvel movie to truly break out was... what? GotG? That was a novel concept and it's sequel did well, but far below the lofty +$400mil DOM, +$1bil WW expectations many had long before release. And that's not even going into the fact that were getting guaranteed decent performers like Apes (already well reviewed) and Dunkirk (Nolan has a strong fanbase).

 

Just popping in to say that you've got a great username.

 

Oh yes, and I agree with you here as well.  

[cannastop]

2 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

What are the predictions for SMH OW?

Around $120m I think. A little more, or a little less.

[filmlover]

2 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

What are the predictions for SMH OW?

I'm predicting $112M. Which would be solid given that this is the sixth Spider-Man movie in 15 years and the third "origin story" for the character.