5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[Blaze Heatnix]

Very few MCU movies get a 3x or a higher rmultiplier. In fact, none in phase 3 has got that multiplier. Even GOTG 2 won't be getting that one.

 

So, little reason to believe Spidey Homecoming wil get a 3x multiplier. Sure, Iron Man is there, but I believe he won't be in the movie that much. So, perhaps people expecting Iron Man and Spider Man, are gonna be disappointed. 

 

The Amazing Spider Man got 262 million domestic and that was 5 years ago.  TASM 2 got 202 million domestic. Homecoming will easily destroy TASM 2 domestic, but I have my doubts about 300 million domestic or perhaps a little more than TASM 1.

 

 

[MrGlass2]

5 minutes ago, a2knet said:

2.8-3.2x seems like a fair range for Spidey's multiplier.

 

Calculating Dom using 2.8-3.2x with these OWs:

 

100 : 280-320

105 : 294-336

110 : 308-352

115 : 322-368

120 : 336-384

 

 

150: $420-480M

[YM!]

The average MCU multiple is 2.66x, which is what I'm thinking SMHC is going to have. Give or take .1x

[DMan7]

30 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

150: $420-480M

[MrGlass2]

2 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

 

Seriously I bet* $150M/$400M is closer to SM:H performance than any of those sub-120 scenarios.

 

(* Non-financial, rhetorical bet)

[The Panda]

11 minutes ago, YourMother said:

CATFA: 2.7x

Ant Man: 3.1x

GOTG: 3.5x

 

Multiples of MCU movies opening in July/August

 

All of those are origin movies, not the sixth in the franchise (even if it's another reboot).

 

2.8x seems like the high end for SM:H, it'll be doing really well to hit it.

[a2k]

10 minutes ago, MrGlass2 said:

 

150: $420-480M

 

1b:2.8b-3.2b

 

edit : Ur projection is not absurdly unrealistic though. still, beating GOTG2's ow is a tiny shot imo.

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[The Panda]

23 minutes ago, a2knet said:

2.8-3.2x seems like a fair range for Spidey's multiplier.

 

Calculating Dom using 2.8-3.2x with these OWs:

 

100 : 280-320

105 : 294-336

110 : 308-352

115 : 322-368

120 : 336-384

 

 

Thats a ridiculous multi for Spidey, lol.

 

2.4x - 2.8x is the likely range.

 

90m: 216m - 252m

95m: 228m - 266m

100m: 240m - 280m

105m: 252m - 294m

110m: 264m - 308m

115m: 276m - 322m

120m: 288m - 336m

125m: 300m - 350m

Edited July 4, 2017 by The Panda

[AN9815]

I thought my WW prediction was super optimistic (I had it at 355M), looks like I was wrong, It'll be making more. 

 

It is a bit sad that no animated movie is going to hit the 300M this year, but to be honest they don't deserve that mark (maybe LEGO Batman), let's see if Coco is good. 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, AN9815 said:

I thought my WW prediction was super optimistic (I had it at 355M), looks like I was wrong, It'll be making more. 

 

It is a bit sad that no animated movie is going to hit the 300M this year, but to be honest they don't deserve that mark (maybe LEGO Batman), let's see if Coco is good. 

 

Or 250. There's also a chance that both DM3 and Coco miss 225. It is sad. Hopefully 2018 is better. There's at least I2.

[Jake Gittes]

It'd take some awful weekend drops (like 65% in its second weekend, etc.) for SMH to miss 2.5x. July weekdays are the best of the year and will be a big help.

[Zakiyyah6]

Just because I'm not predicting a 3.0 doesn't mean I'm predicting crap legs. Thor, Captain America: The First Avenger and Doctor Strange legs are not considered bad. And of course a well reviewed Spider-Man movie in July is going to have better legs than a frontloaded as hell X-Men movie so I'm not even going under 2.8 for it. Hell I'm not saying it won't get close to 3.0 because I think it will but I'm just saying that 3.0 is tough so I'm personally not predicting it. So my prediction is 120 million opening with a 2.85 multiplier which is great. 120/342mil. I do think that July is at least going to give it a 2.7.

 

It's going to be interesting to see who is right people who have 3.0 multiplier fever because of Wonder Woman or people who don't. I personally don't care which side wins because the movie is going to make a lot of money regardless.

Edited July 4, 2017 by Zakiyyah6

[baumer]

1 hour ago, a2knet said:

ha i see. deadline should give tuesday guesstimates for top movies in a couple of hours i believe (by noon pst tue).

 

They can try but I think for Tuesday's numbers they should definitely wait until they have a better grasp of what the films are doing at night. Tuesdays are enormous in Canada and they should wait at least until they have a bit more data before giving other number.

[Daxtreme]

Daily Domestic Chart for Tuesday July 4th, 2017

		Movie	Distributor	Gross	Change	Thtrs.	Per Thtr.	Total Gross	Days
-	(-)	The Hero	The Orchard	$263,352	+5%	401	$657	$2,043,782	26

  Actuals in for Tuesday?    That has got to be a mistake

[YM!]

13 minutes ago, a2knet said:

 

Or 250. There's also a chance that both DM3 and Coco miss 225. It is sad. Hopefully 2018 is better. There's at least I2.

And Grinch along with Ralph 2, Animated Spider-Man, and HT3.

[baumer]

Tuesday numbers at this point are obviously not possible.

[Water Bottle]

Apparently Disney decided to redo Cars 3 OW.

 

[a2k]

2 minutes ago, Water Bottle said:

Apparently Disney decided to redo Cars 3 OW.

 

surely is a better release date

[DMan7]

You guys in the US got a 4 day weekend? Or is it just today alone July 04th?

[TheDarkKnightOfSteel]

The only reasons i think HCM might not get a big multy are :

 

1.I THINK MCU movies ,and SH films in general, are generally pre-sales heavy and they have a rush factor.

 

2.Somebody mentioned that this is a critically acclaimed MCU film in the summer.The only direct comparison i can find is Guardians 1.But the latter had less competition,so it benefitted from a barren marketplace,and it was bringing something new to the table.HMC is the 2nd reboot of the character in a small amount of time.

 

3.Iron Man will froantload it a bit.

 

4.I don't think it will appeal to older audiences and even if it will Dunkirk and Apes should get this target group away from Spidey,along with screens...IMAX and regular,fairly soon.Also,older demos tend to turn up  later.One of the driving factors with WW's success was that it was playing like a 4-quantrad movie.

 

5.Guardians and WW may have saturated some of the demand for SH films.Though we have gone a month now without a good tentpole being released.

 

Anyway it's still a Spidey movie ,it's still a MCU movie and it will have great WOM.120/370M.

Edited July 4, 2017 by TheDarkKnightOfSteel