5-day Weekend #s: DM3 99M, BD 29.97M, WW 24.07M, TF5 24.05M, Cars 3 14.2M, House 11.9M

[DAR]

And the Shack got a rerelease too

[Dementeleus]

4 minutes ago, DMan7 said:

You guys in the US got a 4 day weekend? Or is it just today alone July 04th?

 

It's a quasi 5-day weekend. 

[Napoleon]

9 hours ago, DamienRoc said:

 

I'm not sure its up for grabs any more. WW should have it pretty easily unless it falls off a cliff from Friday onward.

 

If we look at comparable weekly drops, WW has been holding better in just about every case. The two of them even have a similar calendar, where a holiday week was followed up by the release of direct competition. GotG2 went from Memorial Day to Wonder Woman, and it fell, in those two weeks, 30% and 55%. Wonder Woman is going from July 4 to Homecoming. The current week looks like it'll be down about 20%. And from previous weeks, it's seemed like WW is going to hold better, so next week we probably should see that 55% as close to the biggest drop it'll take. It's probably going to fall less than 50%. I mean, GotG2 fell 54% In its second week. WW fell 42%.

 

GotG2 has had some good late legs, post the WW opening. I don't see any reason to assume that WW is going to suddenly have worse legs in its comparable, post Homecoming weeks.

 

The two of them are going to have another similarity calendar-wise. Two weeks after that direct competition, they get a partner studio film that can prop them up. GotG2 fell 25% with the assistance of Cars 3. And that was with its biggest theater loss by a wide margin. How good is WW going to do with Dunkirk's help?

 

 

I'm still a noob at this, but I wonder if Guardians 2 may have developed late legs because, aside from Wonder Woman, all the "big" movies since then seem to have underperformed. For WW though, the big movies opening in the next three weekends seem poised to do great. Do you think this could prevent WW from having better (or same) late legs as Guardians 2?

[Water Bottle]

3 minutes ago, DAR said:

And the Shack got a rerelease too

 

Turns out my VPN was on. So RT thought I was somewhere else. But that means somewhere else The Shack is at the top of the BO.

[DMan7]

1 minute ago, Telemachos said:

 

It's a quasi 5-day weekend. 

[BadAtGender]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

I'm still a noob at this, but I wonder if Guardians 2 may have developed late legs because, aside from Wonder Woman, all the "big" movies since then seem to have underperformed. For WW though, the big movies opening in the next three weekends seem poised to do great. Do you think this could prevent WW from having better (or same) late legs as Guardians 2?

Short answer: no. 

 

Medium answer: the effect of competition is over rated, IMO. Films will largely do their business regardless of what other films are released. Those that have good reception will hold well; those that don't, won't. 

 

 

[a2k]

Audience RT - DM3 67%; CARS3 75%

 

DM3 was 68% yesterday so could slide down more considering it's newer. CARS3 has stabilized more on the other hand.

Probably 64% vs 74% in the end. But DM3 will have better legs when all is said and done.

CARS3 is looking around 2.7x (145/53.7). DM3 needs 195.5 to match that.

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[Cochofles]

1 hour ago, Napoleon said:

I'm still a noob at this, but I wonder if Guardians 2 may have developed late legs because, aside from Wonder Woman, all the "big" movies since then seem to have underperformed. For WW though, the big movies opening in the next three weekends seem poised to do great. Do you think this could prevent WW from having better (or same) late legs as Guardians 2?

 

Without taking anything from Wonder Woman 's divinely leggy run, I gotta say that the film was kinda lucky to have so many of the films that were supposed to be its competition get less-than-glowing reviews and underperform. I remember when it was scheduled for June 23 and I thought Transformers 5 would obliterate's Wondy's chance to shine at the box office. I also remember that when WW was moved to June 2, I was relieved, but then I watched the first The Mummy trailer and I was like, "Damn! This looks good, has Tom Cruise in the lead, and will probably make a killing at the box office, which will keep WW from being # 1 for a second week!" Even Captain Underpants made me nervous (I thought it would surprise and take a big chunk out of WW's first potential OW or even be # 1 that weekend). It was so awesome to see how everything seemed to align positively for Wonder Woman to dominate.  

[Zakiyyah6]

I'm going to sound like a loony who is defending Wonder Woman from something that I know isn't an attack but I'll say this anyway.

 

If Wonder Woman was was not well liked it would not be having the legs that it is having. Plently of movies had less comp than Wonder Woman and didn't have decent legs. *coughBvScough" Also, Suicide Squad didn't have any competition and only got a 2.4 multiplier with August weekdays.  Word of Mouth matters, Wonder Woman is not just doing well because the other movies underperformed. We have two DC movies that prove that you're film is not going to be getting a 3.8 multiplier just because you don't have a lot of competition.

[RyneOh1040]

I think the fact that Homecoming plays like a comedy more than anything will let Homecoming leg it's way past 300 (I'm thinking 310). 

[TwoMisfits]

I think Spidey's gonna get a lot of "late-breaking" presales coming its way now that the Tomato Law is gonna kick in...so I think it's gonna surprise a lot on the board...either that, or I'll spectacularly fail 2 weeks in a row:)...

[Zakiyyah6]

I could be wrong but I think the under 300mil predictions from Spider-Man: Homecoming are absurd. I just can't see it going under 300mil with the addition of Iron Man and those great reviews.

[MovieMan89]

7 minutes ago, Zakiyyah6 said:

I could be wrong but I think the under 300mil predictions from Spider-Man: Homecoming are absurd. I just can't see it going under 300mil with the addition of Iron Man and those great reviews.

It was absurd even if it sucked quite frankly. It's Spidey and Iron Man, 300 was always happening. Even TASM pulled that adjusted. 

[Johnny Tran]

SMH will beat WW opening weekend by quite a bit I think or at least it should.  I'm thinking around $120M.  But how well it holds I am not sure.  I think a 3.0 is a good place to start. So ~$360M. It could be very close between it, GOTG2 and WW. 

[MovieMan89]

HC will open to 135m+ regardless of whatever tracking is right now, mark my words. 

[KeepItU25071906]

105-110 mln, may be even less

[UNDERDOG]

121 mil OW for Spidey.

 

 

Why the added 1 million?

[Fancyarcher]

On 7/3/2017 at 9:33 PM, Kingp0va said:

btw where do people comment movies these days? im so mad imdb took down the boards

 

I post on the movie awards redux board, which is an IMDb replacement site. It's not super-popular, but there is discussion, and it's mostly good and civil. They don't take kindly to trolls.

Edited July 5, 2017 by Fancyarcher

[a2k]

We over-predict a lot (all of us)

We even over-predicted WONDR. Derby was pointing to 110+.

DM2 3-day ow average is 97 and min-max is 86-112 on the derby. Didn't play but was expecting 3-day to match SLOP's ow, not go below Lorax.

Even sub-150 from GOTG2 had dampened things somewhat cause 155+, 160+, 170 was in play.

Same story with Spidey imo. Thinking 100-110. With good legs expected that would be a very strong ow.

110+ would be great. 120 would be Yuge.

Edited July 4, 2017 by a2knet

[Zakiyyah6]

People get mad at me when I say this on Twitter but I think that Wonder Woman could have opened with 10 to 15 million more with slightly better marketing. The marketing was good obviously but it wasn't great.