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Zatt Hawkguy Murdock

Spider-Man: Homecoming Second Weekend OVER 60m (-48,7% drop) - CLUB WILL CLOSE THURSDAY, 7PM EST

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I thought about waiting for Monday's numbers before starting this club, but I feel confident enough to do it so here it goes. I firmly believe that people here on the boards are understimating Spider-Man: Homecoming's potential. July is a different beast when it comes to box office and I think it's possible for this film to have a very similar run to other film from the same genre that was just released, but having three assets that film didn't  have: while Spider-Man: Homecoming is the sixth Spider-Man film in less than 20 years and after three very poorly received films, it's also a film that has enjoyed some very strong critical and public reception, what leads me to think that SMH will hold better than people are expecting next to Apes and the upcoming films. 

 

The theory is that since it's Summer in the US, we will see this film getting strong weekdays and soft drops in the weekend. To enjoy a healthy multiplier, Spider-Man: Homecoming counts with the popularity of the characters, Marvel Studios brand and the very nature of July releases. So who's with me believing that this film will gross over 60m on its second weekend?

 

TRUE BELIEVERS:

 

iJack $62m

Cochofles $60m

KJsooner $63m

TwoMisfits

Subzero

 

NAY SAYERS:

 

WrathOfHan $58m

baumer $54m

Napoleon $50m

the beast $54m

a2knet $49m

AndyChrono $52.65m

the beast $54m

cheesypoofs $53-55m

Dbot1800 $46m

cmbbox2390 $57.8m

raulbalarezo $53m

Steele131 $53m

junkshop36 $53m

AndyK $58m

JB33 $52m-53m

Johnny Tran 53.4m

BeastByTheBay low 50s

ZeeSoh 55% drop

X021 54-55% drop

Mojoguy 60% drop

The Panda 55-60% drop

Zakiyyah6 56-57% drop

keysersoze123 55% drop

MattW Under $50m

MikeQ 55% drop

That One Guy

CJohn

jj99

nomyth

YourMother

wildphantom

TheMovieman

Twelve

Tower

Jayhawk

aabattery

fabiopazzo2

eXtacy

KeepItU25071906

thelich343

JohnnyGossamer

 

Edited by iJackSparrow
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I'll be IN b/c I'm on the island with you (I hope this is actually good when I see it, just so I could feel certain like I did with Wondy - Wed can't come soon enough:)...

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I just don't see how it's possible when SM's Sun was already below WW's.

 

I think a 50% drop from SM's OW minus previews (50.8M) would be really strong and could still put it on track for a 3x multiplier.

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Out. 

If Apes wasn't coming out I'd probably be in, but it's coming and will affect it more than some might realise. It'll stabilise though 

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Ok...I want to say 'no,' but...it's just that Spidey in a solidly received film seems like too much of a sure thing to me. Yes, his brand was "tarnished" by three so-so films, but I can see this being a tad like Wondy's case: muted OW due to some people being burned on Spidey, but then audiences discovering how solid the film is and making following weekends stronger. I am IN, but I think it will be just barely above 60 million.

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3 hours ago, wildphantom said:

Out. 

If Apes wasn't coming out I'd probably be in, but it's coming and will affect it more than some might realise. It'll stabilise though 

 

But there's always another movie coming out in the second weekend of a movie's run.  

Always.

 

If TDK couldn't drop less than 50% for the first weekend, and that had better WOM that pretty much any film in the last ten years (or at least as good as), then I don't see how SMH will do it either.

 

So I'm out.  I'm sure it will drop nicely, but put me down for a 54% drop.

 

54 million second weekend.

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I would love to see this happen, but I'm out. 

 

For the record, I think it will do really well during this week (strong July weekday grosses), but it seems basically inevitable to me that this will be falling 50+% next weekend. There is a reason why these big comic book films almost always drop 50+% on their second weekend - because they are incredibly anticipated and fans rush out on opening day. This seems evident with Spidey, as it had a frontloaded opening weekend and the preview gross for Spidey makes up such a large percentage of its opening weekend.

 

Only four comic book films that opened to $70+ million (opening on a Friday) have ever dropped below 50% on its second weekend:

 

1. Spider-Man (2002): -37.8%

2. Wonder Woman (2017): -43.3%

3. Iron Man (2008): -48.1%

4. Doctor Strange (2016): -49.5%

 

Let's break them down:

 

The original Spider-Man opened way back in 2002, when films were, in general, leggier. It was also a time when previews were not nearly as huge as they are today. Spidey '02 had a midnight gross that made up only 17.8% of its opening day and a mere 6.1% of its opening weekend. Homecoming just had its previews amount to 30.5% of its opening day and 13.2% of its opening weekend. These kind of percentages are closer to on par with films like Civil War and Age of Ultron. This is probably because MCU has become a brand, Spidey is a big hero within that brand, and July facilitates an audience rush on opening weekend. 

 

Wonder Woman was an incredible modern day exception to the rule that became a bit of cultural phenomenon. Its opening weekend was backloaded, its previews represented a more reasonable 10.7% of its opening weekend, and it opened in early June (as opposed to July which is a peak-of-summer month when it comes to box office). July openers burn even more demand off during the week. This would be especially true of younger skewing films like Spidey. Wonder Woman skewed older (its audience was 68% over the age of 25).

 

Iron Man opened in 2008 - nine years ago, long enough ago that previews were not quite as huge as they are today. This is even a period in which Thursday evening grosses were still separated out from the weekend gross. From what I understand, Iron Man had both evening shows and midnight shows, and while its midnight grosses were rolled into Friday, its evening show grosses were not. So, Iron Man's opening weekend gross actually doesn't even include most of its preview grosses (as you can see on BOM, the $3.5 million it made during Thursday evening shows is kept separate and not include in its weekend gross). This helped "soften" Iron Man's second weekend drop, which would be larger than the cut off of this club if its preview grosses were included in its opening weekend as they are with films today. It also opened in May, and was around the beginning of the MCU.

 

Doctor Strange opened in November (when all schools were in session), with previews that weren't quite as substantial (a more reasonable 11%), and it still dropped 49.5% in its second weekend, which is actually a larger drop than the cut off for this club, which means even if Spidey does drop this amount, the club wouldn't be a success. 

 

Finally, I would add that even a film like the original Guardians of the Galaxy, which opened in August and went on to have a 3.53 multiplier, dropped 55.3% in its second weekend. I think a 55% drop is a good target for Spidey. This doesn't preclude Spidey going on to have a leggy run in general - its just the nature of the beast when it comes to a large comic book movie opening in July.

 

So, IMHO, I would be really surprised if this club succeeds, because dropping only 48.7% or less is a very tall order in this case. I hope somehow I'm proven wrong and it does. :) 

 

The full list of second weekends and their corresponding drops for comic book movies that opened to $70 million or more:

 

2nd Weekends & Drops for Live Action Comic Book Movies that Opened to $70+ million 

Spoiler

 

Title (Year) — 2nd Weekend Gross (Drop from Opening Weekend)

  1. Marvel’s The Avengers (2012) — 103.1 million (-50.3%)
  2. Avengers: Age of Ultron (2015) — 77.7 million (-59.4%)
  3. The Dark Knight (2008) — 75.2 million (-52.5%)
  4. Captain America: Civil War (2016) — 72.6 million (-59.5%)
  5. Iron Man 3 (2013) — 72.5 million (-58.4%)
  6. Spider-Man (2002) — 71.4 million (-37.8%)
  7. Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 2 (2017) — 65.3 million (-55.5%)
  8. The Dark Knight Rises (2012) — 62.1 million (-61.4%)
  9. Wonder Woman (2017) — 58.5 million (-43.3%) 
  10. Spider-Man 3 (2007) — 58.2 million (-61.5%)
  11. Deadpool (2016) — 56.5 million (-57.4%)
  12. Iron Man 2 (2010) — 52.0 million (-59.4%)
  13. Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice (2016) — 51.3 million (-69.1%)
  14. Iron Man (2008) — 51.2 million (-48.1%)
  15. Spider-Man 2 (2004) — 45.2 million (-48.7%)*
  16. Suicide Squad (2016) — 43.5 million (-67.4%)
  17. Doctor Strange (2016) — 43.0 million (-49.5%)
  18. Guardians of the Galaxy (2014) — 42.1 million (-55.3%)
  19. Captain America: The Winter Soldier (2014) — 41.3 million (-56.6%)
  20. Man of Steel (2013) — 41.3 million (-64.6%)**
  21. X2: X-Men United (2003) — 40.0 million (-53.2%)
  22. Logan (2017) — 38.1 million (-56.9%)
  23. Thor: The Dark World (2013) — 36.6 million (-57.3%)
  24. The Amazing Spider-Man 2 (2014) — 35.5 million (-61.2%)
  25. X-Men: The Last Stand (2006) — 34.0 million (-66.9%)^
  26. 300 (2007) — 32.9 million (-53.6%)
  27. X-Men: Days of Future Past (2014) — 32.6 million (-64.2%)^
  28. X-Men Origins: Wolverine (2009) — 26.4 million (-69.0%)

*Opened on a Wednesday

**Opened on Father’s Day Weekend

^Opened on Memorial Day Weekend

 

 

Peace,

Mike

Edited by MikeQ
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In. This is a crowd pleaser film, and better than Wonder Woman. It'll gross 63 million dollars!

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Mike right now:

 

Related image

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How I Think The Week Will Play Out:

Monday: $13.15M

Tues: $16M

Wed: $11.5M

Thurs: $10.6M

 

1st Week Total: $168.27M

 

Friday: $16M

Sat: $21.3M

Sun: $16.7M

 

 2nd Weekend: $54M

 

 

 

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