redfirebird2008 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: 100% locked to be better. Even though it has IMAX, it's still going to have a better Tuesday this week than last. Helps that the IMAX ratio seems to be declining. Opening weekend was around 23% and second weekend was around 20%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baumer Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Sorry to pimp out my own thread here....but we are starting to get the years in film that most people here are familiar with. I just completed 80% of 1996 and of course films like The Rock, ID4 and Twister were front and centre.....I'd love for some of you who haven't done so yet, to check out the thread. It's a really interesting introspective look back at the biggest box office stories of each year starting in 1972 and will go right up until 2017. To those of you who have been reading, I thank you...for those who haven't, have a peak....you might find it interesting. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FantasticBeasts Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Wolf Warriors 2 made today in China more than TFA's first Tuesday with a ticket average of $5.5 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 (edited) If DUNKIRK shows a 40% drop this weekend (for 16m 3rd weekend), it will be 130+, and then could be 150 by 4th weekend (of 10, down 37.5% from 16). Then adding 3-4x more the weekend will give it 180-190. 185+ is happening imo. Edited August 1, 2017 by a2knet 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
titanic2187 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 I would say Dunkirk would have very awesome third weekend drop as last friday drop was inflated by $5.5m preview and unexplained sunday's drop, this coming friday and sunday is going to correct that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 5 minutes ago, titanic2187 said: I would say Dunkirk would have very awesome third weekend drop as last friday drop was inflated by $5.5m preview and unexplained sunday's drop, this coming friday and sunday is going to correct that There is a Canada holiday next Monday. Hopefully that will help the Sunday drop for all movies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 (edited) Thinking 15-16 million for Dunkirk this weekend. I suspect Friday jump and Sunday drops will be better than last weekend but not overly so, while Saturday increase will be similar if not a hair less. Thinking it'll be around 2.7-2.8 mil on Thursday? No idea what to expect from Tuesday and Wednesday this week, nor is it fair to assume Thursday will be flat like it was last week Edited August 1, 2017 by MrPink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cochofles Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 (edited) 32 minutes ago, a2knet said: Actually, the goal is to do enough so that an 8x+ from Dunkirk does not take away the summer crown from Wondy. Maybe Valerian will leg it out to a 27-plus multiplier and get the summer crown after all. Edited August 1, 2017 by Cochofles 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Just now, MrPink said: Thinking 15-16 million for Dunkirk this weekend. I suspect Friday and Sunday drops will be better than last weekend but not overly so, while Saturday increase will be similar if not a hair less. Thinking it'll be around 2.7-2.8 mil on Thursday? No idea what to expect from Tuesday and Wednesday this week. Just did a comparison with Rogue Nation. Second weekend for Rogue Nation was 4.20 times higher than first Monday. Second weekend for Dunkirk was 4.13 times higher than first Monday. So Dunkirk's weekend jump performed at 98% of Rogue Nation's weekend jump. Rogue Nation's third weekend was 5.18 times higher than second Monday. If Dunkirk's third weekend is 5.0 times higher than second Monday, that would mean a $16.6m weekend. This would be 96.5% of Rogue Nation's jump compared to 98% last weekend. That would be a 37.6% drop from last weekend for Dunkirk. Not sure it can pull this off. I'm expecting around $15m. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Just now, redfirebird2008 said: Just did a comparison with Rogue Nation. Second weekend for Rogue Nation was 4.20 times higher than first Monday. Second weekend for Dunkirk was 4.13 times higher than first Monday. So Dunkirk's weekend jump performed at 98% of Rogue Nation's weekend jump. Rogue Nation's third weekend was 5.18 times higher than second Monday. If Dunkirk's third weekend is 5.0 times higher than second Monday, that would mean a $16.6m weekend. This would be 96.5% of Rogue Nation's jump compared to 98% last weekend. That would be a 37.6% drop from last weekend for Dunkirk. Not sure it can pull this off. I'm expecting around $15m. It can't pull it off. If you notice, Rogue Nation had some insane Friday and Saturday increases that I don't think are really possible for early August, and the weekdays were still really strong that Dunkirk isn't going to make much if any ground there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mojoguy Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 (edited) Maybe Valerian will leg it out to a 27-plus multiplier and get the summer crown after all. Nope, Valerian is losing over 1,500 theaters this weekend for sure. Edited August 1, 2017 by Mojoguy 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
redfirebird2008 Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, MrPink said: It can't pull it off. If you notice, Rogue Nation had some insane Friday and Saturday increases that I don't think are really possible for early August, and the weekdays were still really strong that Dunkirk isn't going to make much if any ground there. Rogue Nation also dropped 12-13% on Thursday in the first two weeks. Dunkirk stayed flat on its first Thursday, which is why they ended up with similar weekend multipliers compared to the first Monday even though Rogue Nation increased 81% on second Friday. Do you think Dunkirk is dropping hard on Thursday? That is where the comparison really hinges. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 2 minutes ago, redfirebird2008 said: Rogue Nation also dropped 12-13% on Thursday in the first two weeks. Dunkirk stayed flat on its first Thursday, which is why they ended up with similar weekend multipliers compared to the first Monday even though Rogue Nation increased 81% on second Friday. Do you think Dunkirk is dropping hard on Thursday? That is where the comparison really hinges. I don't think its dropping hard, but I don't think it'll increase like it did last week. Thinking 7-8%. Also have a stunning admission of guilt to make, I didn't make it to Dunkirk on Sunday. My brother rescheduled for today so I am seeing today in Laser instead. Pray for 25% increase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayr Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 50 minutes ago, a2knet said: At latest I think the Sat after the coming Sat. Using Tue, Wed, Thu holds from last week and using a 40% drop this weekend (for 2m), WONDR will be on 398.5m. Then next Mon-Thu will be ~1m for 399.5. Again if it shows a 40% drop over that weekend (for 1.2m), what it does on Fri+Sat will be enough for 400+ (~400.3), while by Sunday it will be around 400.7. Then if it adds 3x the weekend (1.2) more to it's run (which including LD FSSM shouldn't be a big ask) 400.7 + 3.6 = ~404.3 So 404-405 is the least I can see it do. 50 minutes ago, a2knet said: At latest I think the Sat after the coming Sat. Using Tue, Wed, Thu holds from last week and using a 40% drop this weekend (for 2m), WONDR will be on 398.5m. Then next Mon-Thu will be ~1m for 399.5. Again if it shows a 40% drop over that weekend (for 1.2m), what it does on Fri+Sat will be enough for 400+ (~400.3), while by Sunday it will be around 400.7. Then if it adds 3x the weekend (1.2) more to it's run (which including LD FSSM shouldn't be a big ask) 400.7 + 3.6 = ~404.3 So 404-405 is the least I can see it do. Hope WB will expand it a bit by labor day if it reach 205 it will have a chance beating Civil War and Iron Man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 3 minutes ago, jayr said: Hope WB will expand it a bit by labor day if it reach 205 it will have a chance beating Civil War and Iron Man i think rumors around wondr's expansion to promote jl may be true too (at least makes sense). i think 410 would happen in that case. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the beast Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 How Many Theaters could it expand to? 500+? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MrPink Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 6 minutes ago, the beast said: How Many Theaters could it expand to? 500+? A Labor Day expansion could easily expand to 1200-1500 theaters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
a2k Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Off the 4 smallest weekend drops WONDR has had, 3 have come in the last 3 weekends, with the best one being the most recent. Date(click to view chart) Rank WeekendGross %Change Theaters Change / Avg. Gross-to-Date Week# Jun 2–4 1 $103,251,471 - 4,165 - $24,790 $103,251,471 1 Jun 9–11 1 $58,520,672 -43.3% 4,165 - $14,051 $206,343,175 2 Jun 16–18 2 $41,268,850 -29.5% 4,018 -147 $10,271 $275,095,580 3 Jun 23–25 2 $24,906,310 -39.6% 3,933 -85 $6,333 $318,111,468 4 Jun 30–Jul 2 4 $15,706,011 -36.9% 3,404 -529 $4,614 $346,235,486 5 Jun 30–Jul 4 3 $24,072,825 - 3,404 - $7,072 $354,602,300 5 Jul 7–9 4 $9,822,105 -37.5% 3,091 -313 $3,178 $368,473,296 6 Jul 14–16 6 $6,802,386 -30.7% 2,744 -347 $2,479 $380,603,464 7 Jul 21–23 9 $4,608,028 -32.3% 1,971 -773 $2,338 $389,011,307 8 Jul 28–30 10 $3,340,667 -27.5% 1,651 -320 $2,023 $395,244,373 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ms Lady Hawk Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 Dunkirk is a war movie. It is doing just fine for its genre. I just looked up some similar movies on BOM. If it contends during awards season, it will probably reach the high end threshold for war movies, meaning the likes of Saving Private Ryan. WW has been a joy to follow. It is clearly winding down. I hope it has 8-10 million left in the tank. It it has another 15 million left, then that would be movie nirvana. It has surpassed my most optimistic expectations. As it winds down, there is a bit of sorrow at seeing such a fun ride come to an end. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Captain Craig Posted August 1, 2017 Share Posted August 1, 2017 1 hour ago, Stutterng baumer Denbrough said: Everything WW does at this point is terrific. It's locked to hit 400 million. No matter what it drops from last week, going forward, this is all about the march to 400. Will it reach it this weekend, or next Tuesday or beyond? 1 hour ago, cannastop said: Actually, the goal is to beat Spider-Man. 1 hour ago, Mojoguy said: No, WW's goal is to hit $413M DOM and get a 4X multiplier. 1 hour ago, a2knet said: Actually, the goal is to do enough so that an 8x+ from Dunkirk does not take away the summer crown from Wondy. I think the goal should be to come up with an actual agreed upon goal perhaps. Maybe all this IS the goal? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
